SUZUKA, Japan — It once appeared that Yuki Tsunoda`s big chance in Formula 1 had passed him by. Red Bull seemed unconvinced, and Honda`s support appeared to be waning.
However, with his Red Bull debut approaching at his home race in Suzuka, his moment has finally arrived.
Many questions are being asked: Can he perform under pressure? Has this opportunity come too late?
The shift in events since the Chinese Grand Prix — and Tsunoda`s move from Racing Bulls to Red Bull, replacing Liam Lawson — has been truly remarkable, even by Formula 1`s unpredictable standards. Tsunoda, who for a long time seemed just out of reach of the coveted Red Bull Racing seat, has now been given it. How he manages this challenge will shape the direction of his career from this point forward.
Measuring success alongside Max Verstappen is a tough task, but the performance of the previous four drivers in that position sets a low benchmark. Tsunoda`s immediate goal is clear: to master Red Bull`s RB21 car. This car, like many before it, appears incredibly fast in the hands of a top talent like Verstappen, but difficult for others to handle. It can be a major blow to a driver`s confidence.
The Unexpected Turnaround for Yuki
Tsunoda`s promotion was driven by a feeling that, while Lawson had a surprisingly poor start, the 24-year-old Japanese driver had become the polished racer Red Bull Racing had long hoped for.
“Yuki Tsunoda is a fast driver, we know this, but he`s had inconsistent moments,” Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko stated after the promotion was announced. “That`s why we initially thought Lawson was the stronger candidate, but Yuki has undergone a real transformation. He changed his management, and in the current situation, this was simply the best choice.”
Many observers believe Tsunoda`s improvement has been evident for longer than just the recent weeks of 2025. However, Red Bull apparently hadn`t seen it until recently. As recently as December, they were openly considering letting him go.
“We are very aware that if we can`t honestly provide an opportunity for Yuki this year, does it make sense to keep him?” team principal Christian Horner questioned in late 2024. “You can`t keep a driver in a junior team for five years. You can`t always be the bridesmaid. You either have to let them go or consider a different path.”
No one at that time, especially Horner, would have predicted Tsunoda`s promotion from “bridesmaid” to “bride” would happen just three races into the next season. Horner`s main concern about Tsunoda had been his temperament. Apparently, in a very short time, this is no longer an issue.
How could Tsunoda be considered not ready just four months ago, but now is?
Then there`s Honda`s role in all of this. Reports suggested Honda offered up to $10 million to secure Tsunoda`s Red Bull seat. However, sources told ESPN the actual incentive was a discount on the final year of their engine deal — a deal Red Bull reluctantly agreed to after splitting with Renault in 2018 and being refused engine supply by Ferrari and Mercedes — rather than a direct payment.
While still a significant gesture, it raises questions. Considering Red Bull`s expensive payout to Sergio Pérez last year — reportedly over $12 million — it`s even more surprising that Tsunoda`s experience and Honda`s financial support weren`t enough to convince Horner and the team earlier.
There`s also Honda`s own change of heart. Their ongoing support for Tsunoda seemed uncertain recently, but they`ve reversed course even faster than Red Bull. Just weeks ago, Honda`s racing head appeared to be gently pushing Tsunoda towards leaving.
“He needs to take action himself,” Honda Racing Corporation president Koji Watanabe told Motorsport.com. “I want him to make the best choices for himself.”
“There’s not much more we can do for him. He needs to solidify his support team, including his manager, and secure the necessary seat. He is a professional, after all. Drivers can’t rely on Honda forever. Someone of Tsunoda’s career level needs to think for himself.”
Given that Tsunoda was at Honda`s headquarters weeks later, for his first appearance as a Red Bull Racing driver, these previous statements are quite striking in retrospect.
A key factor in this change seems to be Tsunoda`s new manager, Mexican agent Diego Menchaca, who he partnered with after splitting with Mario Miyakawa and Luis Alvarez. Sources told ESPN that Tsunoda`s former management was seen as hindering his chances of moving up.
His change in management seems to have brought a change in approach and perception. The extent of its impact in just a few months is hard to measure, but it`s noteworthy that Red Bull and Honda have both mentioned it as a factor.
Everything Rests on Yuki
Regardless of how he got here, Tsunoda now has a critical opportunity that he must seize. The odds seem stacked against him initially. The RB21 appears challenging to drive, and Tsunoda is starting behind, having missed pre-season testing and two race weekends to adapt. While his home debut in Suzuka is a dream scenario, it`s followed by a demanding three-week period with races in Japan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. A slow start could be difficult to recover from if he loses confidence with the demanding car.
Red Bull`s past uncertainty about promoting Tsunoda had always been puzzling. It`s hard to see the “inconsistent moments” Marko mentioned, especially in the last couple of seasons.
Tsunoda now partners with Verstappen, known as a tough teammate to compete against. However, Tsunoda has also shown his competitiveness. His strong performances contributed to Nyck de Vries`s early departure in 2023. While Daniel Ricciardo had some good moments in his place, the contrast between his and Tsunoda`s form — especially early last season when the car was more competitive — was clear. It undermined Red Bull`s idea that Ricciardo was the right choice to replace Pérez. Tsunoda also performed well against Lawson, although Lawson showed flashes of potential that impressed Red Bull management.
Tsunoda`s promotion corrects a mistake Red Bull made. He arguably should have been alongside Verstappen from the start of 2025. Tsunoda spent a massive 89 races at the junior team. Ricciardo had 39 races in his first junior stint before promotion, while Sebastian Vettel and Verstappen had 25 and 23 respectively. Red Bull had been hesitant to promote their own junior drivers to the senior team since Verstappen`s promotion in 2016.
For those wanting Tsunoda to succeed, he`s been thrown into a challenging situation.
Sources have suggested to ESPN that Tsunoda isn`t seen as a long-term solution at Red Bull. He is simply a better immediate option than Lawson, and more likely to be competitive if Red Bull can improve their unpredictable car and compete for the constructors` championship. While it seems unlikely now, Red Bull is reportedly hopeful about the impact of the upcoming ban on flexible wings, effective from the Spanish Grand Prix.
In terms of expectations, Tsunoda needs to be competitive, supporting his teammate and delivering good results.
“Ultimately, Red Bull Racing is focused on Max [Verstappen] winning the drivers` championship,” Tsunoda told BBC Radio 5 Live. “He has shown great potential to be a world champion — even though Red Bull seems to be struggling a bit. Performance-wise, [Horner] wants me to be as close to Max as possible. In some races, I can help with strategy, but he also promised me that if I`m in front of Max, he wouldn`t necessarily ask me to swap positions and let Max win.”
Whether Red Bull would actually do that remains to be seen, but it seems unlikely at the moment. Given Pérez`s performance gap last year and Lawson`s struggles in his first two weeks, Red Bull would likely be satisfied with decent early results from Tsunoda — Q3 appearances and points would be impressive considering the challenges he faces.
There are broader implications for Tsunoda now.
Previously, it seemed he was considering options elsewhere. Cadillac`s future F1 team reportedly admires his talent, and Haas tried to sign him last year before turning to Esteban Ocon when it became clear Tsunoda was tied to Red Bull. Most will understand if he struggles initially, but the risk of this move, happening as it has, is that it could damage the positive image he has built in recent years in the junior team. People in F1 now know how difficult the Red Bull car is, but it would be unfortunate if this long-awaited opportunity becomes the very thing that undermines the goodwill he has earned since entering Formula 1.
However, this is the nature of the sport. Previously, Tsunoda had a valid argument that Red Bull had never given him a real chance. That argument no longer holds. He must make this opportunity work for him. Examples of drivers failing at Red Bull and succeeding elsewhere, like Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly, exist. But Tsunoda`s promotion has further complicated what already seemed like a complex and confusing career path.
Dominic Ashworth