Wrexham, the oldest football club in Wales, hasn`t played in the second tier of English football since 1982. Now, they are tantalizingly close to promotion from League One as the season nears its end. However, their fate is not entirely in their hands after a recent 2-2 draw against Cambridge United. This draw came on a night when their rivals missed an opportunity to give Wrexham control of the promotion race.
With six games remaining, Phil Parkinson`s team currently holds second place in the league table. Birmingham City leads the league and appears headed for the Championship, sitting 11 points ahead of Wrexham with two games in hand. The battle for the second automatic promotion spot is shaping up to be very competitive.
Wycombe Wanderers, despite a goalless draw against Shrewsbury Town despite taking 30 shots, still control their own promotion destiny. Charlton Athletic and Stockport County both gained ground on Tuesday, setting up an exciting finish to the season on May 3rd.
League One Promotion Standings
| Team | Pld. | W | D | L | GD | Pts. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 39 | 89 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 40 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 78 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 39 | 21 | 12 | 6 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Charlton | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 72 |
| 5 | Stockport | 40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 71 |
| 6 | Bolton | 39 | 19 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 63 |
The top two teams gain automatic promotion to the Championship. Teams placed third to sixth will compete in playoffs: a two-leg semifinal followed by the final at Wembley on May 25th.
Wrexham`s Upcoming Matches
- April 5: Burton Albion (Home)
- April 12: Wigan (Away)
- April 18: Bristol Rovers (Home)
- April 21: Blackpool (Away)
- April 26: Charlton (Home)
- May 3: Lincoln (Away)
What Wrexham Needs for Promotion
Automatic promotion for Wrexham isn`t guaranteed. If Wycombe wins all of their remaining seven matches, Wrexham would need to match that winning streak to tie on points. In that case, goal difference would decide the promotion spot, where Wycombe currently has a five-goal advantage and has also scored more goals.
However, such a perfect run of wins is unlikely. The promotion race will likely depend on crucial matches for both teams. Wrexham`s games against Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers should be straightforward, considering the points difference. Yet, at this stage of the season, facing teams fighting to avoid relegation can be very challenging.
Potentially decisive games for both Wycombe and Wrexham will be against Charlton in late April. Charlton plays Wycombe at Adams Park and then Wrexham at the Racecourse Ground within five days. Victories for Charlton in these games could significantly impact the promotion battle, and two wins would put Charlton firmly in contention.
Historic Rise for Wrexham?
If Wrexham secures promotion, it would be their third promotion in three seasons. They returned to the English Football League in 2022-23 after 15 years and immediately followed that with promotion from League Two in second place.
Other English teams have achieved three consecutive promotions, and even four in a row in lower leagues. However, no team has risen so rapidly through the higher levels of English football. For example, FC United of Manchester achieved three promotions after being founded in 2005, but they reached the Northern Premier League Premier Division, which is the seventh tier of English football.
Wrexham`s journey is at a higher level, aiming for the second tier. The National League, League Two, and League One are all largely or fully professional leagues. Wrexham, under the ownership of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, has had the financial resources to compete at each level. This raises the question of their Championship prospects if promoted.
Can Wrexham Compete in the Championship?
Looking ahead to the Championship and even the Premier League, back-to-back promotions from League One to the Premier League are rare, often achieved by historically big clubs like Ipswich Town last season. Despite Wrexham`s growing global fanbase, the Championship is financially demanding.
Wrexham`s wage bill in League Two exceeded $14 million annually, likely increasing with signings like Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Even with higher wages, a newly promoted wealthy club might spend significantly less than established Championship clubs. Wrexham director Humprey Ker suggested their salary spending may need to quadruple to remain competitive after promotion.
Underlying statistics suggest caution for Wrexham`s Championship readiness. They`ve scored 56 goals from 48.1 expected goals (xG) and conceded 32 goals from 42.4 xG against. While second in League One, they rank ninth in non-penalty xG difference.
These numbers raise questions about Wrexham`s promotion chances and Championship survival. Yet, Wrexham has consistently risen to challenges since 2020. If they reach the Championship, expect significant investment to maintain their position.
Dominic Ashworth