Aryna Sabalenka has maintained her World No. 1 ranking for over five months and recently surpassed Madison Keys in the Race to the WTA Finals. This year, she has entered six tournaments, and the upcoming Miami Open final on Saturday will mark her fourth final appearance.
Is there anyone capable of halting Sabalenka`s dominant form in women`s tennis?
Jessica Pegula is set to challenge her next. Best of luck to her in this encounter.
“Aryna, another hardcourt final for us,” Pegula commented after her victory against 19-year-old Alexander Eala. “I consider myself a top hardcourt player, but she is likely the best currently.”
On the relatively fast court at Hard Rock Stadium, Sabalenka has consistently hit winners, even from defensive positions. Following her dominant win over Jasmine Paolini, Sabalenka admitted to feeling completely in her zone.
Sabalenka is only the third woman to reach the finals of Indian Wells, Miami, and the Australian Open in the same season as the world`s top-ranked player, joining Steffi Graf (1994) and Martina Hingis (2000).
Sabalenka and Pegula have a history of eight matches, with Sabalenka winning six. How will their Saturday match unfold? Let`s examine the case for each player:
Advantage, Sabalenka
Break points are crucial moments in tennis. Against Paolini, Sabalenka excelled, saving all four break points against her serve and converting four out of five on Paolini’s serve.
Here’s why she will be a formidable opponent: Serving at 4-2 in the second set, facing a 15-40 deficit against Paolini, Sabalenka responded with three exceptional serves followed by winners into open court. This demonstrates her aggressive and confident style of play.
Sabalenka has conceded only 23 games across ten sets, while Pegula has lost 44.
Mental fortitude, once considered Sabalenka’s weakness, may now be her greatest strength on the WTA Tour.
Pegula won their first encounter five years ago in Cincinnati. However, Sabalenka has won six of their last seven matches, all in straight sets.
“I believe she is currently a tougher opponent than she was at the US Open,” stated Tennis Channel analyst Martina Navratilova.
Another key aspect is Sabalenka’s current mindset. Despite winning 22 out of 26 matches this year, suffering the most wins on tour, two of her losses were in significant finals.
Sabalenka was defeated in the finals of the Australian Open by Madison Keys and Indian Wells by Mirra Andreeva.
“We never truly lose,” Sabalenka told reporters, “we only learn. Sometimes opponents play without pressure and execute extraordinary shots, leaving you surprised.”
“I believe in those finals, I focused excessively on my opponents rather than my own game.”
Singer Bon Jovi was present at Sabalenka’s semifinal victory. Her ambition here transcends just `Livin’ On A Prayer.`
“I genuinely feel that this time,” Sabalenka stated, “I will perform better than in my previous two finals.”
Advantage, Pegula
Could there be an element of destiny at play?
Pegula, at 31, is the third player over 30 to reach the Miami Open women’s final in the last three years. Petra Kvitova (2023) and Danielle Collins (2024) previously won the title under similar circumstances.
Pegula must feel like her time is due.
This is Pegula’s third Miami Open semifinal appearance, having previously lost at this stage to Iga Swiatek (2022) and Elena Rybakina (2023). Even at this point in her career, Pegula continues to achieve breakthroughs. She had lost six major quarterfinals before finally reaching the final at last year’s US Open.
Pegula`s competitive drive is heightened at these prestigious 1000-level events. This will be her sixth final at this level. Of Pegula’s seven career titles, three are from this elite category: Guadalajara (2022), Montreal (2023), and Toronto (2024). A Miami victory would secure her a 1000-level title for the fourth consecutive year.
What is it about these major tournaments that brings out her best?
“I honestly don’t know,” Pegula admitted, “but I am pleased it happens at the 1000s, it`s always positive. In significant tournaments, I can win crucial points under pressure and emerge victorious. I will strive to bring my best game.”
“One player who might execute this better than me, possibly Aryna on Saturday, so I anticipate a significant challenge.”
Pegula’s post-match message, close to 1 a.m., was `I’m tired.` The positive aspect is her excellent physical condition and over 36 hours for recovery.
Remarkably, this is Pegula’s third WTA 1000 final since turning 30. Since 2009, only Serena Williams (16) and Li Na (four) have reached more after turning 30. Pegula is performing exceptionally well at an age when many contemplate retirement. She is determined to maximize these opportunities.
She could become the oldest player to defeat the World No. 1 in a WTA final since Martina Navratilova defeated Monica Seles in Paris in 1993.
“I believe I can bring some different strategies on Saturday,” Pegula said. “I intend to play my own game. I know I`ve had opportunities against her before, and I will try my best to capitalize on them as much as possible.”
Jasper Hawthorne 
Dominic Ashworth