Golden State advanced from a peculiar first-round matchup against the Houston Rockets. Despite Houston`s significant advantages in size, rebounding, and defense, their major flaw was a lack of effective half-court offense. Golden State ultimately capitalized on this weakness over seven games to move forward.
Their next opponent is the Minnesota Timberwolves, who also navigated an unusual first-round series, defeating the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers, similar to the Rockets, possessed a major strength (individual scoring ability) but were significantly hampered by critical weaknesses like insufficient size and depth. Minnesota overcame the Lakers in five games, closing out tight finishes in the final three contests.
While these victories carry weight (Houston was a high seed, LA a betting favorite), they provided limited insight into how Golden State or Minnesota would fare against a more conventional playoff adversary. Given that playoff success often hinges on exploiting opponent vulnerabilities and concealing one`s own, the prominent weaknesses of both the Lakers and Rockets meant any serious contender *should* have been able to defeat them. Consequently, this raises questions about the true legitimacy of the Warriors` and Timberwolves` title aspirations.
This context makes them ideal second-round rivals, potentially before facing the highly-regarded Thunder in the conference finals. They share similarities with each other and, in different aspects, resemble their recent opponents but lack those critical vulnerabilities.
Both teams experienced sluggish starts to the season. Golden State, partly due to failing to make a significant offseason trade, sat 10th in the West well into February. Minnesota, initially struggling with integrating an offseason acquisition, was also 10th in the West as late as March. Golden State concluded the season strong, posting a 21-7 record after acquiring Jimmy Butler. Minnesota also finished strongly, going 17-4 following Julius Randle`s return from injury and his successful integration into the team`s established framework.
The Warriors just overcame a team known for its physical, “bully ball” style (Rockets), while the Timberwolves just employed that same approach effectively against the Lakers. Minnesota`s formidable frontcourt trio—Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid—contributed to the league`s second-highest rebounding rate in the first round (behind only Houston`s). Houston dominated the paint against Golden State (74 points differential), and Minnesota similarly dominated the Lakers inside (76 points differential). Golden State transitions from one large, physical opponent to another.
The key distinction is that Minnesota is far more versatile. Houston was near the bottom in 3-point attempts (27th), whereas Minnesota was sixth. Unlike Houston`s lack of a go-to scorer in settled situations, Minnesota boasts Anthony Edwards. Houston lacked tactical flexibility, but the Timberwolves can adapt, playing one or two traditional bigs and adjusting their guard rotation for offense (DiVincenzo, Conley) or defense (McDaniels, Alexander-Walker). Minnesota can make adjustments; Houston could not.
Conversely, the Timberwolves just defeated a team heavily reliant on small-ball (Lakers). Los Angeles increasingly favored lineups without a traditional center, hoping star players like LeBron James and Austin Reaves could generate offense from spread formations. While Minnesota`s defense handled this, facing the Warriors` small-ball units presents a different challenge. Lineups featuring Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green at center have been exceptionally potent, scoring 125.1 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. The Lakers aimed for elite small-ball offense; the Warriors demonstrate it.
Yet, since the Butler trade, Golden State`s versatility has grown significantly. Those effective small-ball lineups also draw a remarkable 27 free throws per 100 possessions – an unusually high number for a team not centered around traditional post play or aggressive guard drives. Jimmy Butler`s presence has transformed their offense from one lacking rim attacks to one that generates plenty. Unlike the Lakers, who relied heavily on a static rotation, the Warriors can significantly alter their lineups. They successfully used Kevon Looney unexpectedly to counter Houston`s rebounding and got valuable minutes from him in Game 7. They have defensive specialists like Gary Payton II and Moses Moody, and offensive threats like Brandin Podziemski and Buddy Hield, all contributing in their first-round series. Again, the Warriors possess adaptability that the Lakers lacked.
As the series progresses, the specific challenges become clearer. Golden State, the more veteran team, is coming off an exhausting seven-game battle with Houston and faces a quick turnaround for the Minnesota series. Physical fatigue is a major question mark. While Minnesota reached the conference finals last year, their roster has changed (Karl-Anthony Towns is no longer there), and key players like Julius Randle had previously struggled in the playoffs before the Lakers series. Can this relatively less established team withstand the pressure against Golden State`s highly experienced core duo?
In about two weeks, one team will remain, likely preparing to face the Thunder, who were dominant in the Western Conference throughout the season. Typically, at this stage, we would have a clearer picture of which team is a genuine contender to challenge the top seed. However, significant player movement this year and the skewed nature of the first-round series the Warriors and Timberwolves just won leave us uncertain. It`s possible one team advanced primarily due to a favorable opponent.
Nevertheless, on paper, both Golden State and Minnesota appear more balanced, adaptable, and playoff-ready than their previous opponents. This makes their matchup a much better indicator of how they might fare against the Thunder, the top seed awaiting in the next round. To reach the Finals from the West, a team must defeat versatile opponents. The Thunder fit this description, and the Warriors and Timberwolves seem to as well. This series provides the crucial opportunity for them to prove their capabilities against a truly competitive adversary.
Jasper Hawthorne