On May 1, 2024, Suns owner Mat Ishbia made a statement that is becoming infamous in NBA circles. Just days after Phoenix was swept in the first round of the playoffs, Ishbia claimed that 26 out of 29 general managers would trade their entire teams for the Suns` roster and assets. He insisted the team was in a great position and had enough talent to win a championship.
This bravado, reminiscent of Joe Lacob`s `lightyears ahead` quote without the championships to back it up, now seems delusional. Despite relatively healthy seasons from key players and what was considered a successful offseason, the Suns missed even the Play-In Tournament. Instead of playoff preparations, they fired coach Mike Budenholzer and are searching for their fourth head coach in as many seasons.
Today, it`s hard to imagine even three general managers who would want to swap situations with Phoenix. The Suns control none of their first-round picks until 2031, their young players aren`t particularly promising, and Bradley Beal`s contract is virtually untradable. They are likely stuck above the luxury tax again next season, their defense is weak, and despite the touted talent, their offense has barely cracked the top 10 in the league during Ishbia`s ownership.
While this season highlighted these issues, they were apparent a year ago. Despite Ishbia`s optimistic words, the team was already in trouble. His recent comments about a `pivot and reload` strategy sound like calling for help when the house has already burned down. The team isn`t fixable; it needs a complete rebuild.
Considering a Kevin Durant Trade
Rebuilding must start with trading Kevin Durant. To their credit, the Suns seem more open to this idea now than they were in June when they dismissed rumors about trading Durant to Houston. However, trading Durant raises two key questions.
First, what is Durant`s trade value at age 37? There`s little precedent because few players at this age have been this good and traded. Of the 22 All-Stars aged 36 or older, only two were traded afterwards, and neither provides a clear comparison. Shaquille O`Neal was traded for very little in 2009, while Kevin Garnett`s 2013 trade to Brooklyn, which brought Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to Boston, is considered one of the worst trades in NBA history and not a model to follow. The market value for a 37-year-old star on an expiring contract is uncertain.
Second, how much would the Suns lose without Durant? Despite factors limiting his trade value, Durant remains an excellent player and was statistically the Suns` best player this season. He led the team in scoring, blocks, and advanced metrics, and was near the top in assists and rebounds, almost achieving a 50-40-90 shooting season. Replacing Durant will be extremely difficult given the Suns` limited assets and what they might receive in return.
Phoenix already has a roster below .500. Trading Durant, their best player, will further weaken it. Given his age, injury history, and potential desire to control his destination as his contract expires, the return for Durant may not be substantial enough to fix all the team`s problems. With minimal draft capital and role players of limited trade value, a quick turnaround for the Suns seems unlikely.
Why Devin Booker Should Also Be on the Trading Block
Devin Booker likely has higher trade value than Durant due to his age. At 28, Booker is in his prime, but this peak may not last indefinitely. His decline might come sooner than the Suns can rebuild, given their limited assets and financial constraints.
When asked about Booker`s availability, Ishbia dismissed the idea immediately, emphasizing Booker`s prime and the necessity of a superstar to win championships.
Ishbia is correct about needing a superstar to win. Durant was one in his prime. But is Booker? He has two All-NBA selections, including a third-team pick last season partly due to injuries to other players, and a more deserved first-team pick in 2022. However, advanced metrics are less enthusiastic about Booker, ranking him lower than his reputation suggests. He has never ranked higher than 18th in Win Shares per 48 minutes, for example.
Most NBA champions this century had a former or reigning MVP. Booker has never received MVP votes except in 2021-22. The exceptions are the 2004 Pistons, the 2019 Raptors (who might have had an MVP if Kawhi Leonard stayed healthy), and the 2024 Celtics, led by Jayson Tatum, a three-time All-NBA First Team pick. Being the best player on a championship team is a high bar. Even Tatum faced doubts a year ago. Few outside Arizona believe Booker is at Tatum`s level.
Championships usually require a top-five, or even top-three player. Booker is likely in the top 20, perhaps top 15, but not top 10. He could be a strong second option on a deep team, similar to the 2021 Suns team that reached the Finals. However, even that team, where Chris Paul was arguably the key player, needed favorable circumstances to reach the Finals, facing injured opponents in each playoff round.
The idea is to pair Booker with someone equally or more talented while building a strong supporting cast. The Suns tried this with Durant but failed by sacrificing too much for Beal and making a poor trade for Jusuf Nurkić. Now they are starting over with limited time. Booker turns 29 soon, and a successful rebuild will take years, which may be unrealistic given their asset limitations.
There`s no easy fix for the Suns. Despite Ishbia`s `all-in` approach, a complete reset is necessary. It`s time to trade Booker.
What a Booker Trade Might Look Like
Trading Booker alone won`t solve everything. Some suggest trading him to Houston to regain control of their first-round picks in 2027 and 2029, enabling tanking. However, Houston only controls three Phoenix picks, and Washington and Utah control others. The Suns` 2032 pick is frozen. A rebuild isn`t a single trade solution, and Phoenix will lose many future picks regardless.
These lost picks are a sunk cost. Continuing with the current Booker era is more damaging than acknowledging past mistakes. The Suns can either watch Booker decline on a mediocre team or trade him now to build something new.
This `something new` is uncertain and would likely require a new general manager and several years of rebuilding as young players develop. The Suns could clear their salary cap and add free agents and smaller trades later. This slow build is probably not what Ishbia wants, but it`s better than the current direction. The past few years could hardly have gone worse.
This rebuild is the best, though perhaps least likely, path for the Suns. As a source told MacMahon, Ishbia isn`t about `trusting the process.` Booker wants to stay in Phoenix, and Ishbia wants to keep him. But if they believe this partnership will lead to a championship soon, they are not being honest with themselves. Without significant change, the Suns will likely remain mediocre next season.
Jasper Hawthorne