Although they currently lead the series 2-1, the New York Knicks have been significantly outplayed by the Boston Celtics. Through three games, the Celtics hold an 18-point scoring advantage and have led for the vast majority of the series duration (128 out of 149 minutes). Despite these statistics, the Knicks remain in a position to win the series by simply securing their home games.
The two Knicks victories, while counting towards their series lead, appear to be largely influenced by favorable shooting variance rather than consistent superior performance. The underlying data shows the Celtics generating significantly better shot opportunities on nearly every possession. The Knicks cannot afford to approach Game 4 acting like a team that is comfortably in control; they must acknowledge they are being outplayed.
If the Knicks require the Celtics to shoot an unusually low 25% from three-point range just to secure narrow victories, their paths to future wins are limited. Relying on the Celtics continuing to shoot poorly from deep is improbable, as demonstrated in Game 3. Hoping for extreme luck on their own three-point attempts is also unreliable, given the Knicks` low three-point attempt rate this season (28th in the NBA) and Boston limiting them to just 31 attempts per game in the series. Even converting half their threes might not be enough due to the low volume. The most viable path forward, and the one within their control, is implementing a substantial tactical adjustment. A change to the starting lineup presents the most obvious opportunity.
No team relies more heavily on its starting unit than the Knicks. Their primary five (Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns) accumulated 940 regular-season minutes together, more than double the minutes of almost any other lineup in the league. In the playoffs, they again lead all units with 212 minutes. In a typical 2-1 series where the leading team had outplayed the opponent, changing a core unit would be unthinkable. However, this series is far from typical, particularly concerning the starters` performance. In 68 minutes on the court, New York`s starting five has been outscored by a staggering 29 points. This mirrors their regular-season struggles against Boston, where they were outscored by 26 points in 65 minutes over three games. This consistent pattern suggests Boston`s starters hold a significant advantage over New York`s. The Knicks` fourth-quarter comebacks in Games 1 and 2 were necessary only because of the large deficits incurred by the starters earlier in the games.
It`s important to note that the Knicks aren`t likely to abandon this core five entirely. These remain their best players, and the team lacks significant depth. Ultimately, the series outcome will still largely depend on their performance. However, it`s worth exploring if there`s a more effective way to deploy them.
Enter Mitchell Robinson. He stands out as one of only two rotation players for the Knicks with a positive point differential in this series (+29, compared to the starters who were all at least -16 in Game 3; Robinson was -3). While on-off numbers can be influenced by matchups (Robinson plays against Boston`s bench more often), his impact has been undeniable. Physically limited by an ankle injury to likely around 20 effective minutes per night, inserting him into the starting lineup over Josh Hart could address several key issues for New York.
One problem starting Robinson could mitigate is the intentional fouling strategy employed against him due to his poor free-throw shooting (7-of-23 in the series). Bringing him in mid-quarter plays into Boston`s hands, minimizing the penalty of putting the Knicks into the bonus. If his minutes begin at the start of a quarter, the cost of intentional fouls rises significantly, as hacking him repeatedly early in the quarter would quickly put the Knicks in the bonus, allowing them to substitute him out and play the rest of the period with free throws readily available. This strategic timing of Robinson`s minutes, rather than necessarily increasing his total playing time, is a key benefit of starting him.
Where are the starters struggling most? Primarily on offense, not defense. The Knicks starters are scoring just 90.4 points per 100 possessions in this series. While poor shooting luck contributes, a significant factor is the lack of spacing created by Josh Hart against an elite defense – he is often left unguarded away from the basket. The Knicks` paint scoring has dropped from 52.5 points per game in the regular season to 42 in this series.
Mitchell Robinson admittedly doesn`t solve spacing issues; he exacerbates them. However, he offers a different path to offensive efficiency: possession advantage through elite offensive rebounding. Historical data shows the Knicks have ranked high in half-court points per possession (meaning they make the most of each chance) even when points per *play* are lower, largely because Robinson generates so many extra possessions through offensive boards. With Towns and Robinson together this postseason (in a limited 65-minute sample), the Knicks boast an incredible 38% offensive rebounding rate, higher than the league-leading Rockets` regular-season mark. While Hart is a good rebounder for his position, Robinson`s presence as a dominant big man controlling the paint fundamentally alters defensive positioning and rebounding dynamics. Boston`s eagerness to foul Robinson highlights his disruptive impact on the glass.
Beyond rebounding, Robinson also makes a significant defensive impact. Despite the focus on three-point variance, a key factor in the Knicks` initial wins was Boston`s poor shooting on two-pointers when Robinson was on the court. With Robinson playing, the Celtics are shooting 41.5% on two-pointers (22-of-53). When he`s on the bench, that number jumps to 50.6% (41-of-81).
Naturally, such a change carries risks. Playing two traditional big men against a team as proficient at creating three-pointers as Boston could easily backfire. As seen in Game 3, the Celtics are willing to foul Robinson immediately after an offensive rebound, requiring him to be judicious about when to go for a putback or reset. Furthermore, the bench unit has been relatively successful; removing Robinson from that equation could disrupt its effectiveness. Ultimately, losing is losing, whether it`s with the starters or the bench – only the final score matters.
However, the factors that led to the Knicks` first two wins are not sustainable for future victories. In aggregate, the Celtics have been dominant throughout the series and also held the upper hand in the regular season matchups. If the Knicks continue with the same approach as a team being dominated, they will likely face similar outcomes. Relying on variance while being outplayed is the definition of insanity in sports. To achieve different results and compete effectively against the Celtics, the Knicks must implement a significant change. As one of the few consistent positive contributors in the series, Mitchell Robinson should be central to any adjustments they consider.
Jasper Hawthorne