Broadly speaking, the path for top NBA Draft prospects often follows a similar pattern. They get drafted, spend a few seasons on a rebuilding team, eventually reach the playoffs, experience some early exits, and then begin to genuinely compete for championships around their fifth or sixth year. There`s a logical rhythm to this development. A team is typically in a position to draft a top prospect precisely because they were struggling. Becoming a strong contender takes time. Maintaining a competitive roster indefinitely is challenging under current CBA rules. The usual strategy is to align the team`s peak performance with the star player`s prime years.
This traditional trajectory is emphatically not the situation Cooper Flagg is entering. If circumstances align favorably, the Mavericks, after unexpectedly securing the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, could realistically aim for the 2026 championship. This potential timeline aligns with the team`s previously stated goal, as repeatedly mentioned by General Manager Nico Harrison, of building a dominant defense to win championships, specifically around Anthony Davis. Flagg undoubtedly enhances their defensive capabilities.
The longer-term questions are more complex. Davis is 32, Kyrie Irving is 33, and health has been a significant concern for both, even before Irving`s recent ACL tear. Realistically, their window for championship contention likely spans only a few more seasons. Harrison`s contract also has three years remaining, and his actions prior to winning the draft lottery suggested that was the only timeframe that mattered.
Now, however, the perspective has fundamentally shifted. The Mavericks have at least five years of team control over Flagg. Generally, a team can expect to retain a young superstar well beyond that, potentially through the end of their second contract, covering eight or nine seasons. Building effectively around such a player can provide two decades of contention. The Mavericks understand this well, having experienced it with Dirk Nowitzki. While it seemed possible with Luka Dončić too, the hope for Flagg providing that long-term foundation is significant, though not guaranteed.
The initial few years could be genuinely great. What happens afterward is much murkier. Dallas does not control its first-round picks between 2027 and 2030. While they possess young talent like Dereck Lively, a starting-caliber center, and Max Christie, a useful 3-and-D guard, there isn`t an obvious path to replacing Davis and Irving when they age out of stardom without access to their own high draft selections.
For a different front office, there would be a straightforward solution: trade Davis. Why obsess over an immediate title window when you`ve just gained the potential cornerstone for a decade? The prospects for a 2026 championship, while not impossible, were meaningfully diminished when Irving tore his ACL. His return timeline and future productivity are uncertain. Relying on a relatively small guard to return from one of basketball`s most serious injuries near his 33rd birthday and immediately perform at a superstar level seems unlikely. Dallas could secure substantial assets for Davis now and build in a more conventional manner.
However, Harrison is highly unlikely to make such a move. He has tied his reputation to the success of the team built around Davis. He wants to win in the immediate future. It seems improbable that someone who seemingly made high-stakes moves for veteran stars would suddenly change course for the sake of a teenager. For better or worse, the Mavericks are probably still prioritizing the present. What exactly does this immediate focus entail?
They likely need to acquire another guard. While Brandon Williams showed promise and Jaden Hardy still has upside, they aren`t ready to fill the void left by Irving. The roster has an imbalance, particularly with a frontcourt logjam involving Lively, Daniel Gafford, Davis (presumably now a full-time power forward), P.J. Washington, and Naji Marshall.
The most apparent strategy to address this imbalance and acquire guard help would be to break up the center pairing. Gafford is a year away from free agency and reportedly seeks starter-level compensation. Even if Davis commits to playing power forward exclusively, a viable backup center can be found elsewhere. Gafford represents their most easily tradable asset for acquiring a shot-creating guard who can help bridge the gap until Irving potentially returns.
If Irving opts into the final year of his current deal, is Harrison ruthless enough to explore trading him? Given potential existing relationships, it`s probably improbable. However, such a move would open numerous possibilities for addressing the dilemma between the present and future. A younger player like Trae Young, currently on an expiring contract in Atlanta and holding significant leverage, represents the type of guard who could provide immediate help and potentially grow with Flagg. While Irving himself might not appeal to a younger team like the Hawks, his expiring contract could be valuable, and the Mavericks still possess other trade chips, such as the 2029 Lakers pick or assets acquired from other trades. Putting youth aside, there`s significant value in resolving the health uncertainty early; immediate championship odds are inherently better with a healthy point guard than an injured one.
In the more likely scenario that Irving extends, the length of his new contract, and Davis`s for that matter, become critically important. As it stands, Davis`s contract is set to expire in the summer of 2028, which would align with the final offseason of Flagg`s rookie contract. This could serve as a natural pivot point: retain Davis and Irving for three more seasons, then move on to create significant cap space in 2028. However, Davis would undoubtedly seek an extension before then. Reports suggested that even the Lakers were hesitant to extend Davis in 2025 before trading him, a cautious approach considering he would be turning 36 in the final year of such a deal.
These are questions the Mavericks are now compelled to ask themselves, even if Harrison`s stated focus was previously limited to `three, four years from now` – a timeframe that doesn`t even encompass Flagg`s entire rookie deal. The fundamental decision-making calculus within the organization must change. Flagg is now the single most important asset, not just for his on-court potential, but also off the court, representing their crucial path to regaining the trust of a fanbase that had largely become disillusioned. Harrison can still pursue immediate success, but he cannot do so at the expense of mortgaging Flagg`s long-term future.
That is the essential balance the Mavericks must strike. They don`t necessarily have to completely abandon Harrison`s immediate timeline, but they must prioritize Flagg`s. His career trajectory will differ from that of a typical top pick, but starting on a winning team won`t keep him content if the organization declines into a loser in five or six years.
Jasper Hawthorne