By December 10th, when the Houston Rockets held a 16-8 record, reports began circulating that the Miami Heat might trade Jimmy Butler. Despite missing the playoffs for the past four years, this promising 24-game start quickly made Houston a top candidate in trade discussions for Butler, even though their competitive phase was just beginning. General Manager Rafael Stone addressed this on SiriusXM NBA Radio that same day to temper expectations.
“We like this team. We definitely do not intend to change anything, and I would be shocked if something changes this season,” Stone stated. “We like where we`re at. We want to continue to develop our guys, full-stop. Will I listen to other teams? Of course I will, that`s my job, but again, no, there`s no part of me, there`s no part of our decision-making process that suggests that we`re looking to do anything big now or in the near term.”
While the quote itself is important, it`s fairly standard GM rhetoric. No successful general manager would publicly push for major changes. The timing, however, is key. Stone acted immediately to try and stop a rumor before it spread, wanting to avoid the common pressure placed on newly competitive teams. The moment a young team starts performing well, there`s immediate pressure to trade for a star and go all-in for immediate success. This happens even before a team is truly dominant; the San Antonio Spurs, a lottery team, pursued De`Aaron Fox during Victor Wembanyama`s second season.
Sometimes, this strategy works. Cleveland acquiring Donovan Mitchell while Evan Mobley and Darius Garland were still on rookie contracts opened an immediate contention window while their salaries were low, gave the Cavaliers four players with clear All-Star potential, and, significantly, provided access to an in-his-prime superstar that market wouldn`t typically attract. Their risk paid off. However, this doesn`t mean every team should jump at the first available star. Just ask Phoenix how that approach fared.
So where do the Rockets, who recently lost a hard-fought Game 7 first-round series against the Warriors, fit on this spectrum? The simple answer is: wherever they choose. They already have a 52-win team, with seven of their top 11 most-used players aged 23 or younger. They possess the league`s best collection of tradable draft assets: three unprotected Suns picks (including one this year), an unprotected Mavericks pick in 2029, and unprotected swap rights with the Nets in 2027, plus most of their own future picks. Houston is also a historically attractive market for All-Stars. While their payroll will increase, they managed to sign Alperen Sengun below the max and guarantee Jalen Green only three years, showing sound financial management so far. Losing a Game 7 to Stephen Curry is certainly no disgrace.
It`s plausible that making the right trade for a superstar now could make the Rockets 2026 championship contenders. “Could” is the crucial word. There`s no obvious scenario where they would be the clear favorite. If they acquired Kevin Durant, even if he maintains his current level, they`d start next season behind teams like the Thunder and Celtics. Depending on other teams` offseason moves, that list could grow.
Former Rockets general manager Daryl Morey adheres to a “5% rule”: “If you`ve got even a 5% chance to win the title — and that group includes a very small number of teams every year — you`ve gotta be focused all on winning the title,” Morey said in 2012. Would a Rockets team adding Durant (perhaps in place of players like Jalen Green and Jabari Smith) have a 5% chance at the championship? Probably, yes.
But consider when that quote was made – 13 years ago. The NBA has changed considerably. In 2012, the salary cap system was much simpler and less punitive. The concept of stockpiling future draft picks wasn`t widespread; Boston hadn`t even made the trade that would eventually net them Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. LeBron James was midway through a streak of eight consecutive NBA Finals appearances. By 2025, we`ve seen six different champions in the last six years. The league is different now.
The best teams of past eras, led by stars like James, Michael Jordan, or Stephen Curry, might have had close to a 50% chance at a title. Today, more teams reach that 5% threshold annually, but none approach the dominance of those past dynasties. The modern NBA is built for sustainability, not concentrated power. The rules and realities favor long-term planning.
Think about the Rockets` position after a Durant trade. They`d enter the 5% inner circle with a few other teams, but likely only have a year or two with him before age potentially leads to decline. If he gets injured, that 5% chance vanishes. If he doesn`t fit with the existing core, valuable time is lost fixing the roster. If another team simply executes their “all-in” push better, you`re out of luck. The significant assets spent on Durant haven`t resulted in a championship, and the assets that could have built a winner down the line are gone. This isn`t dismissing Durant entirely; if the price is low, there`s little downside and potential upside. But the Rockets aren`t desperate, and they shouldn`t act that way.
Durant, due to his age, is an extreme example. Consider a younger star like Giannis Antetokounmpo. He offers a longer window of stardom (perhaps four or five years), but brings different complications. Durant fits on almost any roster due to his elite shooting. Antetokounmpo requires a specifically constructed team. The Bucks didn`t become contenders until they surrounded him with shooting. The current Rockets lack shooting, ranking 27th in 3-point attempt rate and 21st in percentage this season.
Antetokounmpo is absolutely capable of being the best player on a championship team, something no current Rocket can definitively claim. But the championship team he could lead is emphatically not the Houston Rockets as they are today. Amen Thompson is many things – almost everything you want in a young player – but he isn`t a shooter. He wouldn`t easily coexist with Antetokounmpo. Are the Rockets ready to trade him? What about other similar young players, or the successful two-big lineup that challenged Golden State? Are they just assets to be flipped for veterans who better fit Antetokounmpo?
The entire roster would likely need to be rebuilt around him. This is achievable but requires time, assets, and risk tolerance. Each additional step introduces new potential points of failure. It would essentially treat the current, reasonably successful Rockets team as a piggy bank to be broken open for Antetokounmpo and supporting veterans.
For a less promising team, this would be a worthwhile gamble. Consider the late 2010s Nets. They built a playoff team from scratch, but simply winning regular-season games with D`Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie wasn`t the ultimate goal. It made perfect sense to dismantle that team when Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden became available.
But the Rockets aren`t the 2019 Nets. Thompson and Sengun are not Russell and Dinwiddie. The Rockets are significantly better and, importantly, much newer. They haven`t even fully discovered the potential of their current core. Thompson started the season as a reserve and finished as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and rising star. Sengun made his first All-Star team despite slightly less impressive offensive stats than the previous year. Don`t you want to see Thompson`s full potential? What happens if Sengun combines last year`s offense with this year`s defensive growth? Reed Sheppard was just the No. 3 overall pick; do you really want to sell low on him after only 654 minutes? Do you want to sell low on a team that, despite the first-round exit, is clearly ahead of schedule and might reach true championship contention without drastic intervention?
This doesn`t even account for their draft picks. The lottery hasn`t happened yet. The Rockets currently hold the No. 9 pick from the Suns. This might be the lowest value for those Phoenix picks given the organizational turmoil they`ve created. Perhaps the Nets become the team that acquires Antetokounmpo, making the 2027 swap less valuable. Or maybe the Nets continue a slow rebuild, resulting in another high lottery pick. There`s no “maybe” regarding the 2029 Mavericks pick; they`re just hopeless, and the Rockets should be eager to capitalize on that.
There`s no guarantee these players or picks will yield someone like Durant or Antetokounmpo, but so what if they don`t? What harm does another year of data do? These assets aren`t expiring. Unhappy stars will always emerge. The Rockets can always dive into the deep end of the trade market later. One could argue they are already positioned to do just that. Those Phoenix picks offer a clear path to acquiring Devin Booker if the Suns ever recognize their need to trade him. Frankly, the Rockets could probably aim even higher.
Do you really want to be the team that went all-in early for, say, a Third-Team All-NBA player when you could potentially be in pole position for an MVP candidate (one, unlike Antetokounmpo, who might fit your existing roster and timeline better)? Aren`t you at least curious to see if Anthony Edwards is truly committed to Minnesota long-term? Don`t you want certainty that Nikola Jokić won`t eventually grow frustrated with how Denver has mismanaged the roster around him? Wouldn`t you prefer the flexibility to opportunistically pursue the *right* star, rather than simply the one who happens to be available now?
They are a rare team in a position to exercise this kind of patience. The Rockets aren`t the Cavaliers, constrained by market size. They aren`t constrained by assets either. They will have the capital to outbid almost anyone for their desired player in the coming years. They can afford to build the team they want, on the timeline they choose. How many franchises ever find themselves in such a fortunate position?
It`s a rare and valuable opportunity that shouldn`t be squandered by acting prematurely. Just because the Rockets *could* compete for the 2026 title with a big trade doesn`t mean they *must*. If they handle this correctly, they could build a foundation for a decade or more of success. They can avoid the risks of an “all-in” short window and keep themselves in the 5% contention club for the longest possible time.
Everything is fluid; this could change instantly if the perfect player becomes available, or it could evolve based on their current players` development next season and beyond. But the restraint Rafael Stone has shown this season is precisely what makes the Rockets a potentially terrifying opponent for the rest of the league. He is patient enough to avoid forcing the wrong trade, and even if it means waiting a few years, that sets them up to eventually make the right one.
Jasper Hawthorne