Wrexham, the oldest football club in Wales, stands on the brink of achieving promotion to the second tier of English football for the first time since 1982. With only two games remaining in the League One season, the route to the Championship is clear for Phil Parkinson`s squad, especially after receiving a significant boost from Charlton Athletic on Easter Monday.
Their automatic promotion chances dramatically improved in the 44th round of matches. Wrexham secured a tense victory away against Blackpool. James McClean and Ollie Rathbone found the net just after the hour mark, though Rob Apter`s late goal for Blackpool made the final moments at Bloomfield Road nervy despite the successful outcome. Simultaneously, in South London, Charlton greatly assisted Wrexham`s bid by comprehensively defeating Wycombe Wanderers 4-0 at the Valley, pushing Wycombe out of the crucial automatic promotion spots.
However, the race is not yet decided. Charlton`s victory also kept their own slim hopes of automatic promotion alive. Their next challenge? A trip to the Racecourse Ground to face Wrexham. By the time that match kicks off, Wrexham will know the result of the earlier game on April 26 between Leyton Orient and Wycombe. The finish line is in sight for the Welsh side, but can they maintain their position?
League One Automatic Promotion Race Standings
| # | Team | Pld. | W | D | L | GD | Pts. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 42 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 45 | 99 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 44 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 28 | 86 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 44 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 28 | 84 |
| 4 | Charlton | 44 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 82 |
| 5 | Stockport | 44 | 23 | 12 | 9 | 27 | 81 |
| 6 | Leyton Orient | 44 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 72 |
The top two teams at the end of the season are automatically promoted to the Championship. Teams finishing from third to sixth will compete in the playoffs, which conclude with the final at Wembley Stadium on May 25.
Wrexham`s Remaining League Fixtures
- April 26: Charlton (Home)
- May 3: Lincoln (Away)
Automatic Promotion Scenarios for Wrexham
Wrexham can secure automatic promotion to the Championship with a victory over Charlton on Saturday, provided Leyton Orient manages to either defeat or draw against Wycombe Wanderers in their match scheduled earlier. If this scenario unfolds, Wrexham would establish a gap of at least four points over Wycombe, making it impossible for Wycombe to catch them with only one game remaining in the season.
Wrexham`s Potential Rapid Ascent
Should Wrexham succeed in fending off their promotion rivals, it would mark their third promotion in three consecutive seasons. Having returned to the English Football League in 2022-23 after a 15-year absence, they immediately secured promotion from League Two, finishing in second place. While other clubs in English football have achieved three consecutive promotions, few, if any, have done so through the higher levels of the pyramid as Wrexham is attempting to by reaching the Championship. Clubs like Truro City and Shaw Lane notably achieved four straight promotions, but this occurred at much lower, predominantly non-professional levels of the football pyramid.
Wrexham`s potential rise is particularly notable because they are climbing through increasingly professional leagues. The National League, where they were promoted from, includes many professional clubs, and Leagues Two and One are fully professional environments. It`s also important to acknowledge that Wrexham, owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, has leveraged significant financial power to influence results at every level they`ve competed in so far. This financial advantage leads to a key question regarding their potential promotion.
Can Wrexham Compete in the Championship?
Putting aside the remote possibility of a further, immediate leap to the Premier League (which Ipswich Town remarkably achieved last season, though it typically requires a club to be a traditional powerhouse), the Championship presents a considerable financial hurdle. Reports indicated Wrexham`s wage bill in League Two exceeded $14 million annually, a figure that has surely increased with the recruitment of players who have experience at higher levels.
Even with their considerable wealth, a newly promoted club like Wrexham might still find themselves spending significantly less than the Championship`s wealthiest clubs. Director Humphrey Ker has commented that the wage bill might need to quadruple just to remain competitive. This level of investment would be crucial, especially considering that Wrexham`s underlying performance data doesn`t definitively suggest a team inherently prepared to challenge established Championship teams.
Looking at expected goals (xG) statistics, Wrexham`s actual goal tally (56) surpasses their expected goals (48.1), and they have conceded fewer goals (32) than their expected goals against (42.4), which could indicate some degree of overperformance. Furthermore, when ranked by non-penalty xG difference, Wrexham is only ninth in League One. While they currently occupy second place in the actual league table, these underlying metrics might point to potential difficulties at the higher level.
These statistics might not seem promising for Wrexham`s ability to successfully navigate their final games, let alone survive in the Championship if they reach it. However, the club`s journey since 2020 has demonstrated a consistent ability to rise to significant challenges when presented. Should they achieve promotion from League One, anticipate substantial investment, likely funded by the increased revenues from being in the Championship, aimed at solidifying Wrexham`s position in the second tier.
Dominic Ashworth