The Western Conference Finals series is set to begin between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota aims for its first NBA Finals appearance in franchise history, while the Thunder look to return for the first time since 2012. Despite facing formidable opponents like LeBron James and Stephen Curry in earlier rounds, the Timberwolves may find the Thunder to be their toughest challenge yet, considering Oklahoma City finished the regular season with an impressive 68-14 record, the best in the NBA. Game 1 is scheduled to tip off in Oklahoma City. The Timberwolves enter the series opener with a rest advantage, having not played since Wednesday.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has a strong track record, generating significant returns for players over the past six-plus seasons. Stephen Oh, one of the data scientists behind the model, has analyzed the simulation results to identify player projections with the best value for today`s game.
Best Player Projections for Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 1:
- Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 points
- Jalen Williams Over 1.5 steals
- Donte DiVincenzo Under 2.5 assists
Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 points
Holmgren scored 13 points in just 28 minutes during the Thunder`s Game 7 victory over the Nuggets, where their starters were not heavily utilized late in the decisive 125-93 win. The No. 2 overall pick consistently scored at least 12 points in all seven games against the Nuggets and exceeded this 14.5 total in three of those contests, often finishing right around or above 15 points. Game 1 against Minnesota is anticipated to be a more closely contested game than the Denver Game 7, which should result in Holmgren playing at least 30 minutes. He has performed exceptionally well when playing extended minutes this season; he is 12-1 on hitting the Over for this points total when playing 30 minutes or more.
The matchup against the Timberwolves is considered favorable for Holmgren`s offensive skillset. Stephen Oh highlights that Minnesota`s interior defense, particularly Rudy Gobert, has shown vulnerability against spacing and pick-and-roll actions in the past (referencing last year`s Western Conference Finals against Luka Doncic and the Mavericks). This suggests Holmgren is likely to find ample open looks and opportunities for easy scores, including potential alley-oops, similar to plays seen against Denver.
Jalen Williams Over 1.5 steals
The projection model forecasts 1.6 steals for the Thunder forward in Game 1. Williams averaged two steals per game over the final four games of the series against Denver. This recent performance aligns closely with the Over 1.5 line and presents a promising opportunity for value, especially with the projection model also indicating a likelihood of hitting the Over. Williams averaged 35.6 minutes per game against Denver in the playoffs, an increase from his 32.4 minutes per game during the regular season. His regular-season average was 1.6 steals per game. In four regular-season matchups against the Timberwolves this season, Williams averaged an impressive two steals per game.
He has recorded at least one steal in four of his five home playoff games this postseason. The Oklahoma City Thunder led the entire NBA in steals per game during the regular season, averaging 10.4, and Williams is a significant contributor to that league-leading mark.
Donte DiVincenzo Under 2.5 assists
The projection model projects DiVincenzo for 2.0 assists in Tuesday`s game against the Thunder. Oklahoma City boasts a formidable defense that allowed the fewest total points per game (37.6) during the regular season, which inherently limits assist opportunities simply by restricting the overall scoring volume in the game. The Thunder also ranked fourth in the league in assists allowed per game, giving up just 24.1 this season.
While DiVincenzo has exceeded this assist total in seven of his 10 playoff games so far, facing the Thunder`s stingy defense, which also ranked third in scoring defense, presents a more difficult challenge compared to his matchups against the Lakers or Warriors. Some forecasts have already adjusted expectations, moving DiVincenzo`s assist total upwards, which often leads to the Under bet having better value. Given the model`s projection of 2.0 assists, betting on Under 2.5 assists is viewed as a top option for this game.
Jasper Hawthorne