Game 4 of the first-round series in the 2025 NBA playoffs is scheduled for Monday, featuring the 7th-seeded Golden State Warriors and the 2nd-seeded Houston Rockets. The series is currently led 2-1 by the Warriors, who secured a home-court victory in Game 3 with a 104-93 score after the teams split the first two games in Houston. This season, the Rockets held a 23-17 road record, while the Warriors were strong at home with a 24-17 record. Golden State`s Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable for the game due to a pelvis issue.
The game will tip off at 10 p.m. ET at the Chase Center. According to the latest odds, Golden State is favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under for total points is set at 200.5. Betting analysis and predictions for this matchup are available, including insights from a reputable projection model.
The projection model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has a strong history, showing significant betting profits for players following its top-rated NBA selections over several seasons. Heading into the second week of the 2025 playoffs, the model is performing well on top-rated picks, continuing its successful run.
Having simulated the Rockets vs. Warriors game extensively, the model has generated its specific NBA picks and predictions for this matchup. Here are the current odds and betting lines:
- Spread: Golden State -3.5
- Over/Under: 200.5 points
- Money Line: Golden State -175, Houston +145
- Rockets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season: 44-40-1
- Warriors Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season: 43-40-3
Why the Warriors might cover the spread
Stephen Curry remains a key player for the Warriors, known for his playmaking and excellent shooting. Across the first three games, he has led the team with averages of 29 points and 7 assists, hitting 45% of his three-pointers. Curry has surpassed the 30-point mark in two games, including a performance of 36 points, 7 rebounds, and 9 assists in the most recent contest.
Brandin Podziemski provides additional ball-handling and floor spacing for Golden State. He has scored double-digit points in the last two games, including 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists in the Game 1 victory. His season averages were 11.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game.
Why the Rockets might cover the spread
For the Rockets, center Alperen Sengun is a significant presence in the paint. He leads the team with averages of 19.3 points and 12 rebounds, plus 1.7 steals per game. The 22-year-old has achieved double-doubles in back-to-back games, including 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists in his most recent appearance.
Dillon Brooks brings high defensive energy and a reliable perimeter shot. He averages 13.3 points and 4 rebounds, shooting 50% from three-point range. Brooks has scored in double figures in three consecutive games, contributing 13 points, 6 rebounds, and hitting 3 of 4 three-pointers in Game 3.
Betting analysis for Rockets vs. Warriors
The projection model`s simulations for the Rockets vs. Warriors game indicate a leaning towards the Over for the total points, projecting around 207 combined points. Additionally, the model suggests a strong lean towards one side of the point spread.
For a complete analysis of the game winner and which side of the spread is favored by the model, further details are available from the source.
Jasper Hawthorne