Fri. Sep 5th, 2025

U.S. Open 2025: Ranking Favorites, Contenders, Hopefuls

OAKMONT, Pa. – As the 125th U.S. Open approaches, questions arise whether Oakmont Country Club, already known as perhaps the most challenging venue in professional men`s golf, could present an even tougher test this year.

Initial impressions from tour professionals who have recently scouted the renovated course near Pittsburgh have described it with terms like `carnage,` `cooked beyond belief,` and even the `hardest course in the world.`

Prepare for a thrilling spectacle as golfers attempt to navigate the demanding conditions: ankle-deep rough, narrowed fairways, the notorious Church Pews bunker, and incredibly slick (and firm) greens that might feel like putting on a downhill ice rink.

`I`ve heard from several players, it`s the hardest course they`ve ever played,` stated Xander Schauffele. `That`s kind of [what] most people have talked about. Not much detail on why. Just it`s long and the rough is impossible, and you can end up hitting 50-yard pitches trying to get up and down for par on every hole, something of that nature.`

This marks the 10th time Oakmont has hosted the U.S. Open, and the United States Golf Association consistently returns for a reason – to provide golfers with the most rigorous challenge of the season.

`I would say all of the rumors and everything are pretty on point,` added Justin Thomas, who recently played a practice round at Oakmont.

Here`s a breakdown of the field, classifying players as favorites, contenders, hopefuls, qualifiers, and amateurs:

Jump to a section:
The clear favorite | Guys who can win | If everything goes right
Miracles happen | Happy to make the cut | Qualifiers | Amateurs


It`s Scottie Scheffler`s world once again in men`s professional golf, and everyone else just seems to be witnessing what he`ll do next. After capturing last month`s PGA Championship to go with his two Masters victories, Scheffler can complete three-fourths of the career Grand Slam with a victory on Sunday.

Tier I: The clear favorite

Scottie Scheffler

Yes, put aside any notion of Scheffler having a slow start. The world No. 1 golfer arrives at Oakmont Country Club amidst another incredible run, having won three of his last four tournaments (by a massive combined margin of 17 strokes!), including his 16th PGA Tour title at the Memorial Tournament. He has become like Mariano Rivera on the back nine on Sunday, successfully converting each of his last seven 54-hole leads.

He holds positive memories of Oakmont; as a 19-year-old sophomore at the University of Texas, he carded a 1-under 69 in his initial major championship round at the 2016 U.S. Open held here. He missed the cut by a single stroke after recording an 8-over 78 in the second round. If he maintains accuracy off the tee, he will be exceedingly difficult to overcome.


Tier II: The guys who can win

These players are legitimate contenders to claim the U.S. Open title. They possess the necessary skill, mental toughness, and composure to handle four rounds under pressure on a course notoriously known as the most challenging among the majors.

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau secured his second U.S. Open crown at Pinehurst, despite finding less than half the fairways (57%) over four rounds. His victory was powered by exceptional driving distance (averaging 310.9 yards), solid iron play hitting greens, and outstanding putting. He will need greater accuracy off the tee at Oakmont and wasn`t satisfied with his iron performance at the Masters and PGA Championship. Nevertheless, he has finished tied for sixth or better in five of the last six majors.

Rory McIlroy

Rory aims to overcome his struggles from last year`s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina, where he let a 2-stroke lead slip with five holes remaining and missed crucial short putts on the 16th and 18th holes. He finished one shot behind DeChambeau. McIlroy missed the cut in his only prior appearance at Oakmont nine years ago. His confidence off the tee currently appears shaky; he missed the cut at last week`s RBC Canadian Open after hitting only 13 of 28 fairways in two rounds. McIlroy reportedly planned to experiment with several new drivers over the weekend to find a suitable one.

Collin Morikawa

The two-time major champion has finished runner-up twice this season, at the Sentry opener and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Morikawa hasn`t tasted victory in over 19 months; his most recent tour win was the Zozo Championship in Japan in October 2023. That dry spell is bound to end soon. He is remarkably accurate off the tee (72.9%) and is a world-class ball striker (hitting 67.6% of greens in regulation).

Jon Rahm

The LIV Golf League star positioned himself to challenge Scheffler on the back nine of the final round at the PGA Championship but faltered late. Rahm, winner of the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, has finished tied for 12th or better in four of his last five appearances in this tournament. His driving was significantly inaccurate at Quail Hollow, which would prove disastrous this week.

Russell Henley

Henley claimed his fifth PGA Tour title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and followed that with a tie for eighth at the RBC Heritage and fifth at the Memorial. He tied for seventh at 1 under in the 2024 U.S. Open. Henley ranks 16th on tour in strokes gained: approach (.538) and 11th around the green (.393). His tied-for-12th ranking in driving accuracy (67.7%) will also be beneficial at Oakmont.

Sepp Straka

Straka is one of the tour`s more underestimated players, having already secured two victories this season at the American Express and Truist Championship. He has also accumulated five top-10 finishes and 11 top-25s in 13 starts, virtually guaranteeing his place on the European Ryder Cup team. He will be seeking a better result this week after missing the cut at the Masters and PGA Championship. He is highly accurate off the tee (68.5% fairways hit), leads the tour in greens in regulation (71.4%), and ranks 17th in strokes gained: putting (.427).

Xander Schauffele

Schauffele`s putting appears to be improving, which was previously one of his only weaknesses since recovering from a rib injury. He has the opportunity to capture the third leg of a career Grand Slam after winning the PGA Championship and Open Championship last year. Remarkably, he has finished in the top 10 in seven of his eight U.S. Open starts, including a tie for seventh last year.

Ludvig Åberg

Inconsistency is perhaps the sole factor preventing Åberg from reaching the absolute pinnacle of the sport. The 25-year-old Swedish golfer won the Genesis Invitational and finished solo seventh at the Masters. Surprisingly, he ranks 77th in strokes gained: total (.214), 109th in approach (-.025), and 129th in putting (-.144). Despite these stats, his game seems perfectly suited for winning a U.S. Open.

Hideki Matsuyama

The 2019 Masters champion missed the cut at the PGA Championship, ending his streak of making the cut in 19 consecutive majors. He has finished in the top 10 in two of the last three U.S. Opens, although his driving accuracy (55.3%) could be a concern at Oakmont.

Justin Thomas

JT`s form has cooled slightly after a stellar start to the season, which included a playoff victory at the RBC Heritage and three runner-up finishes. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and tied for 31st at the Memorial, where an opening round 80 hampered him. He showed significant improvement on the weekend.

Shane Lowry

Aside from a missed cut at the PGA Championship, the Irishman has played consistently well as he prepares for his return in July to Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, the site of his last individual PGA Tour win at the 2019 Open Championship (Lowry and McIlroy won last year`s Zurich Classic of New Orleans as a team). He finished runner-up at the 2016 U.S. Open, three strokes behind winner Dustin Johnson, after holding a 4-shot lead entering the final round.

Harris English

The 35-year-old secured his fifth tour victory at the Farmers Insurance Open in late January, then tied for second at the PGA Championship, his best career finish in a major. If he can tighten up his iron play and short game around the greens, his putting is strong enough to put him in contention again.

Patrick Cantlay

It`s been over 2½ years since Cantlay lifted a trophy, but he was in the mix on the back nine of the final round at Pinehurst, where he tied for third at 4 under. He ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained: total (1.124) and approach (.628).

Justin Rose

The 2013 U.S. Open champion was runner-up at the 2024 Open Championship and lost in a playoff to McIlroy at the Masters in April, indicating he is still capable of contending. However, he has missed the cut in four of his last five U.S. Open appearances.

Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood has been a consistent top-25 performer this season, finishing in the top 22 in all but two of his 12 starts on tour. He tied for fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge and 16th at the Memorial. He continues his search for an elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Viktor Hovland

Hovland`s complex relationship with his swing remains an ongoing saga, but he seemed to be in a better place recently. He is still an exceptional iron player and hits a sufficient number of fairways, but will his short game and putting withstand the challenge posed by Oakmont`s notoriously difficult green complexes?

Aaron Rai

If keeping the ball in the fairway is a requirement for success at Oakmont, no one on tour does it better than Rai, who leads in driving accuracy (73.4%). He will need to improve his performance on the greens as well.

Tyrrell Hatton

USGA course setups don`t typically suit Hatton`s game. He has only one top-10 finish, tying for sixth in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills in Long Island, New York. He has been playing like one of the world`s top golfers for a considerable time now.

Corey Conners

The Canadian golfer consistently finds fairways (68.8%) and greens (70%) and is putting better this season. He tied for ninth at Pinehurst last season.

Ben Griffin

It`s remarkable to think that just four years ago, the former North Carolina standout was working as a mortgage loan officer and nearly gave up the sport. Griffin and Andrew Novak won the team event in New Orleans, and Griffin subsequently claimed his first individual title at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He finished runner-up at last week`s Memorial Tournament and shows no signs of slowing down, even in his debut U.S. Open appearance.

Joaquín Niemann

A four-time winner on the LIV Golf League this year, Niemann finally achieved a top-10 finish in a major, tying for eighth at the PGA Championship. This might be the breakthrough he needed to make a significant impact in the four major championships.


Tier III: If everything goes right

Here are the potential dark horse candidates who could lift the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday. This list includes former major champions, emerging talents, and other players whose games have been developing throughout the season. Will everything align for them at Oakmont?

Tony Finau

Finau seemed to rediscover his form with top-20 finishes at the Truist Championship and PGA Championship. He tied for third last year after closing with a 3-under 67 on Sunday.

Brian Harman

Harman won the 2023 Open Championship in difficult conditions and has made the cut in each of the last five U.S. Opens, tying for 21st at Pinehurst. He won the Valero Texas Open in April and tied for third at the RBC Heritage.

Cameron Smith

Smith`s putting expertise would appear to make him a good fit for Oakmont. He has missed the cut in the last three majors, leading some to question whether he is competing frequently enough on the LIV Golf League to contend at this level.

Matt Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick`s tie for eighth at the PGA Championship suggests his form might be returning. He won the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, under challenging conditions.

Jordan Spieth

Since becoming the youngest golfer since Bobby Jones in 1923 to win the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in 2015, Spieth has only one top-20 finish in nine subsequent starts, tying for 19th four years ago.

Brooks Koepka

The two-time U.S. Open champion used to arrive at majors with the conviction that he was superior to everyone else in the field. He hasn`t achieved a top-10 finish in a major since winning his third PGA Championship title in 2023. He missed the cut in the first two majors this year.

Min Woo Lee

`Dr. Chipinski` has recorded three consecutive strong finishes in the U.S. Open, including a tie for fifth at Los Angeles Country Club two years ago. His recent form hasn`t been strong since the Masters.

Sam Burns

After struggling heading into the Masters, Burns has shown improved golf over the past couple of months. He appeared to have a breakthrough in majors by tying for ninth in the 2024 U.S. Open, and he leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting, which will be crucial on Oakmont`s formidable greens.

Ryan Fox

The golfer from New Zealand secured an exemption into the field by defeating Burns in a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday. This was Fox`s second victory in four starts; he also won the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic.

Andrew Novak

Novak has been one of the season`s biggest surprises on tour, partnering with Griffin to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and losing to Thomas in a playoff at the RBC Heritage. This is only his second U.S. Open appearance.

Patrick Reed

Reed frequently features on the leaderboard on Sundays at Augusta National, but he hasn`t enjoyed similar success in the other three majors. His only top-10 finish in the U.S. Open was solo fourth in 2018.

Robert MacIntyre

The Scottish golfer won two national championships last year: the Canadian Open and Scottish Open. He would like to add a U.S. Open title and described Oakmont as `absolute carnage on a simulator, never mind the actual event.`

Daniel Berger

Berger has a couple of top-10 finishes in the U.S. Open in his career, and he was playing well before consecutive missed cuts at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the Memorial.

Davis Riley

Riley had a significant breakthrough at the PGA Championship, tying for second at 6 under, his best finish in a major.

Tom Kim

Kim has recorded three consecutive finishes of 26th or better in the U.S. Open, including a tie for eighth in 2023. He has faced challenges on tour over the past two months.

Maverick McNealy

This is McNealy`s first U.S. Open start since qualifying as an 18-year-old amateur at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014.

Akshay Bhatia

After a period of lull in April and early May, Bhatia`s performance has improved in recent weeks. He tied for 16th in the 2024 U.S. Open and possesses all the necessary shots to contend, particularly on the greens.

Thomas Detry

Detry isn`t exceptionally accurate off the tee (56.6%) and has struggled with his irons, but he is an excellent putter and tied for 14th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.

Si Woo Kim

What other impressive feats does Kim have in store after recording the longest ace in major championship history on the 252-yard, par-3 sixth hole at Quail Hollow Club during the PGA Championship?

Keegan Bradley

The U.S. Ryder Cup team captain has missed the cut at the U.S. Open in four of his last six starts. He tied for seventh in 2022.

Jason Day

Day tied for eighth at 2 over the last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont. He has not competed on tour since missing the cut at the PGA Championship, having injured his left wrist while moving a bike.

J.T. Poston

Poston tied for fifth at the PGA Championship, his best major finish, and his form was trending positively before a missed cut at the Memorial.

Denny McCarthy

McCarthy has had three consecutive solid finishes in the U.S. Open, tying for seventh in 2022, and his putting gives him a chance to make some noise.

Michael Kim

Kim`s form has cooled after a strong spring, when he achieved five consecutive top-15 finishes. This is only his third U.S. Open start; he was the low amateur and tied for 17th in 2013.

Davis Thompson

Thompson tied for ninth at Pinehurst No. 2 last year, marking his best finish in a major. The 26-year-old possesses immense talent but is still working on consistency.

Dustin Johnson

DJ overcame a scoring controversy in the final round to win the last U.S. Open played at Oakmont. He has not been a significant factor in majors over the past two seasons.

Wyndham Clark

Clark`s form has been declining for weeks, and his inaccuracy off the tee (56.5%) and struggling iron play (63.8%) are likely not a recipe for success at Oakmont.

Sungjae Im

He is another golfer who consistently keeps his tee shots in the fairway (68.7%), although he has missed the cut in each of his last three appearances in this tournament.

J.J. Spaun

Spaun has finished runner-up twice on tour this season, losing to McIlroy in a Monday playoff at the Players. He missed the cut in his only previous U.S. Open start in 2021.

Jacob Bridgeman

The former Clemson standout could be a dark horse pick this week. He is one of the best putters on tour, has four top-10 finishes, and performed well at Oakmont during the 2021 U.S. Amateur.

Rasmus Højgaard

Højgaard is a five-time winner on the DP World Tour. He missed the cut in his only previous U.S. Open start in 2020.

Joe Highsmith

Highsmith has been a standout performer so far this season, winning the Cognizant Classic and tying for eighth at the PGA Championship.

Ryan Gerard

Gerard will look to build on his unexpected tie for eighth at the PGA Championship.

Lucas Glover

Glover`s putting has gone cold again, which is a reason he hasn`t contended as frequently as he would like this season. He played in two previous U.S. Opens at Oakmont, in 2007 and 2016, missing the cut in both.

Matthieu Pavon

Pavon became the first French golfer to win on the PGA Tour in January 2024 with a victory at a U.S. Open course, the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. He finished solo fifth at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.

Nick Taylor

The Canadian golfer is a five-time winner on the PGA Tour but is still seeking success in the major championships.

Taylor Pendrith

Another golfer from Canada, Pendrith has finished in the top 20 in two of his last three majors, tying for 16th at the 2024 U.S. Open and fifth at last month`s PGA Championship.

Adam Scott

The 2013 Masters champion`s peak playing days are likely behind him. He has only one top-10 finish in a major since tying for seventh at the 2019 U.S. Open.

Cameron Young

Young, once ranked 13th in the Official World Golf Ranking, had to advance through final qualifying to make the field. He has shown improved play recently.

Bud Cauley

After missing over three seasons due to injuries sustained in a 2018 car accident, Cauley returns to the U.S. Open for the first time in eight years.

Stephan Jager

Jäger, from Germany, tied for 21st in the 2024 U.S. Open. He started strongly at the PGA Championship before fading over the weekend.


Tier IV: Hey, miracles happen

These are the long shots. This tier includes a few older former major champions and established PGA Tour players.

  • Gary Woodland
  • Brian Campbell
  • Cam Davis
  • Laurie Canter
  • Mackenzie Hughes
  • Jhonattan Vegas
  • Nico Echavarria
  • Max Greyserman
  • Sam Stevens
  • Emiliano Grillo
  • Matt Wallace
  • Marc Leishman
  • Chris Kirk
  • Tom Hoge
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • Byeong Hun An
  • Thriston Lawrence
  • Mark Hubbard
  • Lanto Griffin
  • Justin Lower
  • Richard Bland
  • Eric Cole
  • Doug Ghim
  • Carlos Ortiz

Did Vegas find unexpected form at the PGA Championship when he held the 18- and 36-hole leads and tied for fifth at 5 under? He has never finished in the top 40 in the U.S. Open.

Woodland captured the 2019 U.S. Open, Kirk is a six-time winner on tour, and Leishman has won 14 times globally, including once on the LIV Golf League. They are certainly capable of putting together four solid rounds if their recent form improves.


Tier V: Happy to make the cut

These players are not widely expected to be among the leading contenders unless something highly unpredictable occurs.

  • Phil Mickelson​​
  • Nick Dunlap
  • Matt McCarty
  • Erik van Rooyen
  • Thorbjørn Olesen
  • Victor Perez
  • Niklas Nørgaard
  • Zac Blair
  • Chris Gotterup
  • Will Chandler
  • Trevor Cone
  • James Hahn
  • Adam Schenk

Mickelson, a six-time major champion, recently acknowledged that this could be his final opportunity to complete the career Grand Slam. This is the last year of his five-year exemption earned by winning the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island, South Carolina, where he became the oldest major championship winner.

Mickelson, 54, has finished runner-up six times in the U.S. Open, most recently in 2013. He has missed the cut in four of his last five starts in the event and hasn`t finished in the top 40 since tying for 28th in 2014.

Dunlap won twice on tour last season, once as an amateur and again as a rookie after turning professional. However, he has struggled significantly since then, missing the cut in six of his last nine starts. He has not played on the weekend in any of his five major championship appearances over the past two seasons.


Tier VI: The qualifiers

Here are the remaining players among the 65 qualifiers who are not regular PGA Tour members and are not included in the tiers above or below. They earned their spots in the field through local and final qualifying stages. The last qualifier to win the U.S. Open was Lucas Glover in 2009.

  • Yuta Sugiura
  • James Nicholas
  • Roberto Díaz
  • Ben James
  • Zach Bauchou
  • Scott Vincent
  • Jordan Smith
  • Joakim Lagergren
  • Jinichiro Kozuma
  • Guido Migliozzi
  • Frédéric Lacroix
  • Sam Bairstow
  • Edoardo Molinari
  • Jacques Kruyswijk
  • Andrea Pavan
  • Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
  • Alistair Docherty
  • Johnny Keefer
  • Alvaro Ortiz
  • Emilio Gonzalez
  • Trent Phillips
  • George Kneiser
  • Chandler Blanchet
  • Justin Hicks
  • Philip Barbaree Jr.
  • Jackson Buchanan
  • Ryan McCormick
  • Bryan Lee
  • Harrison Ott
  • Grant Haefner
  • George Duangmanee
  • Kevin Velo
  • Brady Calkins
  • Joey Herrera
  • Austen Truslow
  • Chase Johnson
  • Matthew Jordan
  • Takumi Kanaya
  • Riki Kawamoto
  • Riley Lewis
  • Maxwell Moldovan

Nicholas, hailing from New York, played football for one season at Yale before joining its golf team for four years. His grandfather, Dr. James A. Nicholas, was an orthopedic surgeon famous for operating on Jets quarterback Joe Namath`s knee four times. Nicholas was named the Ivy League Player of the Year in 2019.

Hicks, aged 50, actually shared the first-round lead at 3 under in the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, famously won by Tiger Woods in a playoff against Rocco Mediate. Hicks, now a golf instructor in Boca Raton, Florida, tied for 74th at 17 over.

Haefner, who played at Wayne State University in Michigan, delivered one of the most dramatic finishes on `golf`s longest day,` sinking a 60-foot putt from off the green on the 36th hole to earn medalist honors in final qualifying at Springfield Country Club in Ohio.


Tier VII: The amateurs

Here are the amateur players who will strive to achieve what stars such as Cantlay, Mickelson, Rahm, Spieth, and many others accomplished at the U.S. Open before turning professional: win a medal as the low amateur.

  • Jose Luis Ballester
  • Noah Kent
  • Evan Beck
  • Trevor Gutschewski
  • Michael La Sasso
  • Justin Hastings
  • Lance Simpson
  • Cameron Tankersley
  • Frankie Harris
  • Mason Howell
  • Tyler Weaver
  • Jackson Koivun
  • Matt Vogt
  • Preston Summerhays
  • Zachery Pollo

There is a significant contingent of 15 amateurs in the field, including nine who advanced through final qualifying, and many of them bring compelling storylines once again.

Vogt, 34, grew up in Pittsburgh and previously worked as a caddie at Oakmont. He played golf at Butler University in Indianapolis, where he now practices as a dentist. He earned medalist honors in final qualifying in Walla Walla, Washington, wearing a ribbon on his hat in tribute to his recently deceased father, who used to follow his scores on his phone.

Howell, 17, is an upcoming senior in high school from Thomasville, Georgia. He finished 18 under and played bogey-free over two rounds during final qualifying on June 2 at Piedmont Driving Club in Atlanta. He is committed to play at the University of Georgia as part of the 2026 recruiting class.

La Sasso, a junior at Ole Miss, secured his place in the field by winning last month`s NCAA Division I individual national championship. The All-American posted the lowest scoring average in program history (69.48) and won three tournaments this past season. Tankersley, his teammate at Ole Miss, qualified through open qualifying.

Gutschewski recently graduated from Westside High School in Omaha, Nebraska, and is heading to the University of Florida. His father, Scott, is a three-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, and his older brother, Luke, played at Iowa State. Gutschewski secured a U.S. Open spot by winning the 2024 U.S. Junior Amateur.

By Dominic Ashworth

Dominic Ashworth, 41, has made his mark in Leicester's sports media scene with his comprehensive coverage of football and horse racing. Known for his ability to spot emerging talents, Dominic spends countless hours at local sporting events, developing stories that matter to both casual fans and dedicated enthusiasts.

Related Post