The National Hockey League offseason is a period of significant change, where teams reshuffle rosters through trades and free agency, constantly seeking an edge. While the on-ice results of the previous season might offer a sense of stability – case in point, the Florida Panthers repeating as Stanley Cup champions against the Edmonton Oilers – the underlying composition of the teams is in perpetual flux.
To objectively measure the impact of this offseason activity, we can turn to advanced analytics. A useful tool for this is the Goals Above Replacement (GAR) metric. GAR estimates a player`s total contribution to their team`s goal differential compared to a theoretical “replacement-level” player. By using a three-year weighted average of GAR, we can smooth out single-season anomalies and gain a more reliable forecast of a player`s expected future impact.
Applying this methodology across all 32 NHL teams reveals the net effect of every player transaction this summer. Fewer superstar names changed addresses compared to previous offseasons, but the movement that did occur significantly altered the statistical profiles of many rosters. Who successfully added valuable pieces, and which teams saw their statistical value diminish?
Teams That Statistically Gained the Most Value
While rebuilding is a long, often painful process, the offseason can provide statistical victories even for teams far from contention. This summer saw several basement dwellers significantly improve their roster`s quantitative value.
1. San Jose Sharks (+22.0 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
Despite finishing as the league`s worst team for a second straight year, the Sharks dominated the value-added leaderboard this offseason. Their strategy wasn`t about landing one massive superstar, but rather accumulating solid, established veteran performance, particularly on defense and up the middle. Key additions like defenseman Dmitry Orlov and center Adam Gaudette, along with Nick Leddy and John Klingberg on the blue line, added substantial GAR. While Klingberg`s consistency has been a question mark, his potential offensive upside is intriguing. The genius here lies in improving the team`s structure and adding competency without blocking the path for their prized young prospects, including first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini. A statistical win on the path to respectability.
2. Anaheim Ducks (+17.7 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
The Ducks also climbed significantly in the net value rankings, albeit with more high-profile moves. The departure of long-time goaltender John Gibson is statistically mitigated by the emergence of Lukáš Dostál and the acquisition of veteran Petr Mrazek. Up front, adding experienced forwards like Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund provides much-needed support for their exciting young core featuring Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson. While the coaching hire of Joel Quenneville introduced off-ice controversy, analytics suggest the roster talent he inherits for 2025-26 is statistically superior to what recent Ducks coaches have worked with. A different kind of turbulence for Anaheim.
3. Seattle Kraken (+13.1 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
After a defensive regression last season, the Kraken addressed their blueline and forward group effectively. The addition of physical winger Mason Marchment, who provides both scoring punch and defensive responsibility, was their most impactful move by GAR. Bolstering defensive depth with Ryan Lindgren and adding center Frederick Gaudreau provides necessary layers to a team looking to recapture its expansion-year defensive identity. Minimal losses of high-value players mean Seattle took a quiet, but statistically solid, step forward under their new leadership duo.
4. Montreal Canadiens (+11.1 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
Montreal built on the momentum of their surprising playoff berth by making a significant splash on the trade market. Acquiring young defenseman Noah Dobson represents a major coup, adding a player whose GAR rivals some of the league`s elite blueliners under 26. Combined with the addition of center Zack Bolduc, the Canadiens brought in substantial statistical value. Manageable subtractions mean their young core is now supplemented by high-impact additions, suggesting their rapid ascent up the standings might just be getting started.
T-5. Vegas Golden Knights (+8.7 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
Never one to shy away from a bold move, the Golden Knights landed the biggest name on the market: Mitch Marner. His arrival via a sign-and-trade instantly injects elite offensive talent into Vegas. While the cost in both salary cap and departing players (like center Nicolas Roy) was significant, the statistical analysis confirms that acquiring a perennial point-per-game player like Marner significantly boosts their projected value. This is classic Vegas: pushing all the chips in to maximize their championship window around their core.
T-5. Nashville Predators (+8.7 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
Nashville finds itself in familiar territory – on the list of teams adding value – after last year`s attempt at a competitive offseason didn`t pan out as hoped. This time, the focus was less on offensive firepower and more on solidifying the defense, which saw a significant decline last season. Acquisitions like defensemen Nick Perbix and Nicolas Hague are reliable, analytics-approved players aimed at improving their defensive structure. While significant positive regression is still needed from their existing stars, the offseason moves position the Predators to potentially bounce back without resorting to a full teardown.
Teams That Statistically Lost the Most Value
For every winner in the offseason value game, there are teams that saw their roster`s statistical potential decrease. This doesn`t necessarily mean failure, as factors like salary cap constraints, player age, or strategic re-tooling play a role, but it highlights the challenges faced by these clubs.
32. Dallas Stars (-25.3 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
Perhaps the most turbulent offseason belonged to the Dallas Stars, who followed three straight deep playoff runs with a coaching change and a significant roster turnover. Statistically, no team lost more established value. Key departing forwards like Mason Marchment, Mikael Granlund, and Evgenii Dadonov, along with defenseman Cody Ceci, represented a substantial chunk of their depth and secondary scoring. While the core remains strong, shedding this much statistical value from the supporting cast is a bold move. It signals a clear belief within the organization that the previous mix had peaked. Time will tell if this level of disruption is the shake-up needed or if it simply creates new holes.
31. Edmonton Oilers (-13.1 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
Falling just short of the Cup again is a bitter pill, and the Oilers` offseason largely saw established players exit. Forwards Corey Perry, Viktor Arvidsson, Evander Kane, and Connor Brown, along with defenseman John Klingberg, accounted for a significant statistical loss. While Andrew Mangiapane was added, the overall movement resulted in a net decrease in value based on recent performance. The most debated non-move was arguably in net, where the team opted to stick with their existing goaltending tandem despite struggles in the final. For a team with generational talent, the offseason saw more trimming than strengthening, at least by this metric.
30. Toronto Maple Leafs (-12.3 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
The biggest story in Toronto was the end of the Mitch Marner era. Losing a player of his caliber, statistically one of the most valuable forwards available, naturally results in a significant drop in a team`s net GAR. While the return in the Marner trade (centered around Nicolas Roy) and the addition of Matias Maccelli help mitigate the loss, the numbers reflect the departure of a foundational piece. Toronto still possesses immense high-end talent, but the roster structure has undeniably changed, and the statistical profile took a hit this summer.
29. New York Rangers (-9.3 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
The Rangers also experienced a busy offseason beyond their coaching change. They added significant value, notably with defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov, who is coming off a strong analytical season. However, the subtractions of long-time Rangers Chris Kreider and K`Andre Miller, among others, resulted in a net loss. While these players may not have been performing at their peak levels statistically, their departure represents a notable drain on the roster`s established GAR. The Rangers are banking on internal improvements and the impact of new additions like Gavrikov to offset these losses.
T-27. Winnipeg Jets (-7.4 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
After a surprisingly strong regular season that saw them capture the Presidents` Trophy, the Jets face questions about potential regression. The offseason saw them lose a key offensive component in Nikolaj Ehlers, who brought significant scoring and statistical value to Carolina. Other departures like Mason Appleton and Brandon Tanev further contributed to a net loss in GAR. While they made additions like Gustav Nyquist to re-tool their forward group, the statistical analysis suggests the offseason activities align with the potential for Winnipeg to take a step back from their extraordinary 2024-25 performance.
T-27. Colorado Avalanche (-7.4 Net 3-Year Weighted GAR)
The cost of maintaining an elite core under the salary cap often means shedding valuable depth, and the Avalanche continued this trend this offseason. Players like Charlie Coyle, Jonathan Drouin, and Ryan Lindgren represented statistical value that the team couldn`t retain. While adding an intriguing veteran like defenseman Brent Burns provides a boost, the overall picture is one of continued attrition from the supporting cast that surrounded their 2022 championship team. The Avalanche`s ceiling remains high due to superstars like Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon, but the offseason saw their statistical depth take another hit.
The offseason shuffle is a complex dance of cap management, strategic decisions, and player movement. While analytics like Goals Above Replacement provide a quantitative lens through which to view these changes, the true impact will ultimately unfold on the ice when the puck drops. This summer`s moves suggest significant shifts are underway, with rebuilding teams making analytical gains and some contenders facing the difficult reality of losing valuable pieces.
Jasper Hawthorne 
Dominic Ashworth