Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals sees the series return to Oklahoma City with the score tied 2-2. This is now a best-of-three contest between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder, who have traded wins so far. While role players often thrive at home, the spotlight for player props remains firmly on the star power, particularly Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was impactful in Game 4, scoring 15 fourth-quarter points, nearly matching Indiana`s team total of 17 in that period. He exceeded his points prop of 34.5 in Game 4 and carries the same Over/Under line of 34.5 for Game 5, a slight increase from the initial 33.5 opening line.
Tyrese Haliburton, however, secured only two rebounds in Game 4. His rebound prop for Game 5 is set at 4.5. Analysis suggests that betting on the Under at favorable odds offers value.
Recommended Player Prop Bets for Game 5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-114)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 4.5 rebounds (+120)
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 points + assists (-113)
Analysis: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 34.5 points (-106)
The league MVP has scored 34 or more points in four out of six games against Indiana this season, including the postseason, just missing a fifth with 33 in another contest. He consistently seeks out scoring opportunities and seemed particularly aggressive in Game 4, notably recording zero assists for the first time this season. Given the positive outcome of Game 4 for OKC, Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to maintain this aggressive approach in Game 5, especially benefiting from playing on his home court. His true shooting percentage is higher at home (65.4%) compared to on the road (61.8%).
His impressive fourth quarter in Game 4, where he exploited the Pacers` defense for 15 points from various spots on the floor (three-pointers, mid-range, paint, and free throws), is a key indicator. Expect OKC to utilize him similarly throughout Game 5, not just in one quarter. Indiana`s defense also tends to be more generous in away games, allowing 2.5 more points per game in playoff road games compared to home games, which could help Gilgeous-Alexander hit the over.
Analysis: Tyrese Haliburton Under 4.5 rebounds (+110)
Over his last eight games facing Oklahoma City, Haliburton has gone under 4.5 rebounds six times, including his low of two boards in the recent Game 4 loss. While not typically a high-volume rebounder among point guards, his engagement in pursuing offensive rebounds in the 2025 NBA Finals has been minimal. Despite playing the second-most minutes in the Finals, he ranks low in offensive boards. He has secured only one offensive rebound across 146 minutes in the series.
This trend is likely to continue and support the Under bet. His performance in recent road games also points to this outcome; over his last 25 road appearances, he`s averaged 4.2 total rebounds, with the Under hitting 60% of the time on his rebounds prop. Despite OKC`s poor 3-point shooting in Game 4 (their third-lowest percentage in a Finals game in the last decade), Haliburton still only managed two rebounds. While projections might show a slight increase in activity, it`s not anticipated to be enough to surpass the 4.5 threshold, making the Under bet at +110 odds appealing.
Analysis: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 points + assists (+104)
After starting most of the regular season and the first 16 playoff games, Hartenstein was moved to the bench for the initial three Finals games. However, he returned to the starting lineup in Game 4, which coincided with a road win for his team. His likely continuation in the starting role suggests increased minutes and opportunities for statistics. While his assist average remains consistent whether home or away (2.1 assists in playoff games), his scoring output is significantly higher at home (9.9 points per game) compared to on the road (6.2 points per game) in the 2025 playoffs. This difference suggests he could potentially reach the Over on points alone.
Historically, Hartenstein has shown a strong tendency to hit the Over on this combined prop, particularly earlier in the season with a high over rate. Even with a recent slight dip in production over his last seven games, analysis indicates solid value for the Over line at this stage. If Hartenstein finds his rhythm early in Game 5, he could cover this combined points and assists total relatively quickly.
Jasper Hawthorne