Tonight`s NBA schedule is packed with exciting matchups, including a Western Conference showdown that could be a preview of the playoffs. The Denver Nuggets are set to host the Minnesota Timberwolves. Despite being the underdogs, the Timberwolves are aiming to sweep the season series against Denver for the first time since the 2002-03 season. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota`s guard, has been instrumental in their dominance, consistently scoring at least 29 points in all three previous encounters. Interestingly, his over/under for total points is listed at 27.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The question is, with odds at -110 and considering his past performances against Denver, should you consider this prop bet?
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has shown impressive results, generating over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on top-rated NBA picks over the last six seasons. Stephen Oh, a Data Scientist behind this model, has analyzed the results to pinpoint player props with significant value for tonight`s games. Remember that odds are subject to change, so it`s wise to act quickly to secure the best value.
Josh Giddey Over 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (+100)
Josh Giddey has been making an average of 1.7 three-pointers at home for the Bulls, who are playing against the Raptors tonight. Even though it`s the second game of a back-to-back, Giddey played only 28 minutes in their recent game, suggesting he should not be overly tired. Moreover, they are facing a less formidable defense in the Raptors (ranked 17th in points allowed per game this season) compared to the Thunder (ranked 2nd).
Stephen Oh from SportsLine notes, “The odds are favorable because Giddey has only made 1 of 8 in his last two games. However, prior to this, he was shooting impressively at 51.9% from the 3-point line, averaging 2.3 made threes over six games.” While most sportsbooks have minus odds for this bet, Fanatics is offering it at even money. The model projects Giddey to make 1.8 three-pointers tonight.
Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 Rebounds + Blocks (-115)
The model predicts the Knicks will significantly outrebound the 76ers tonight and anticipates Mikal Bridges to be a key contributor with a projected 4.4 rebounds. Oh highlights that Bridges tends to play more minutes when the Knicks are heavily favored, as they are tonight being 14.5-point favorites. Coach Tom Thibodeau is known for giving his starters substantial playing time, even in games that are not close. Given the 76ers` recent shooting struggles (below 43% in three of their last four games), Bridges should have ample opportunities to grab at least four rebounds. Fanatics offers the best odds at -115 for this prop.
Oh explains his confidence: “I believe the game might be closer than expected, leading to more than 30 minutes for Bridges and four rebounds, or the Knicks might dominate early, allowing Bridges to reach his number even with fewer minutes. Although his season record for over 3.5 rebounds + blocks at home is 14-23, it improves to 9-6 when Jalen Brunson is absent.”
Desmond Bane Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers (+135)
Desmond Bane has gone under this total in five of his last six games. However, before this, he exceeded it in three out of four, including a game where he shot 7 for 7 from beyond the arc against the Kings on March 17. Bane`s season average is 2.3 made 3-pointers, making the plus money odds appealing, especially in a matchup against Steph Curry and the Warriors. Last season, Bane averaged 3.3 made 3-pointers per game. Oh also points out Bane`s increased aggressiveness from deep recently, with 22 attempts in his last three games.
According to Oh, “Even with Ja Morant potentially dominating the ball more, he should draw more defensive attention, potentially leaving Bane open. Moreover, facing Steph Curry might motivate high-volume 3-point shooters like Bane to showcase their skills.” DraftKings Sportsbook offers favorable odds at +135 for this prop bet.
Dyson Daniels Over 3.5 Steals + Blocks (+120)
Dyson Daniels has been a defensive force lately, achieving multiple steals in 11 consecutive games. In six of these games, he has secured at least four steals, often reaching this over even without counting blocks. The model projects Daniels to exceed three steals tonight and sees value in the plus-money odds at Bet365, particularly in a home game against the Trail Blazers. Oh mentions that Daniels` Over 3.5 steals + blocks is 21-13 at home this season.
Oh adds, “His home average is remarkably high at 4.2 steals + blocks per game. While Portland has been a tougher matchup for him in terms of steals + blocks (three and two in two games), I don`t expect him to have another low-performance game.”
Nick Richards Over 0.5 Assists (+120)
Nick Richards is projected to record an assist in 70% of simulations, while the implied probability is just 45.5%, as Oh highlights. The Suns` center averages nearly one assist per game this season (0.9). Although he hasn`t recorded an assist in the last three games, he played fewer than 20 minutes in two of those. With Kevin Durant out due to an ankle injury, Richards is expected to play more minutes, especially against a physical team like the Bucks. Bet365 is offering odds of +120 for this prop.
Oh concludes, “Without Durant, the team will need Richards on the court to compete on the boards and score around 10 points against Milwaukee`s strong frontcourt. We are projecting him for 25 minutes, and when he plays 24+ minutes for Phoenix, the Over 0.5 assists hits 9 out of 13 times, compared to just 5 out of 19 when he plays under 25 minutes as a Sun.”
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Jasper Hawthorne