Thursday`s sports schedule is packed, including eight NBA games. Interestingly, four of these games are expected to be quite uneven, with point spreads of 10 points or more according to betting odds. This raises questions about how to approach NBA player prop bets. Will reserves get more playing time and potentially exceed their prop totals, while star players might play less and go under their projected stats?

The Cleveland Cavaliers are heavily favored (-14.5) in their game, making Cleveland players potentially attractive for prop bets. Evan Mobley is out, which could mean more minutes for Jarrett Allen, who is favored to get a double-double.

Statistical models are used to predict game outcomes and player performance. These models have a strong track record in NBA predictions and are now being used to identify valuable NBA player props for Thursday.

Domantas Sabonis: Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Despite recently missing this mark in several games, projections suggest Sabonis is likely to exceed 34.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists on Thursday. The Kings are facing the Trail Blazers, who have recently allowed over 120 points in two consecutive games. Sabonis has a history of strong performances against Portland, having surpassed this combined stat line in six of their last seven matchups, including a triple-double earlier this year. While some betting sites have increased this prop to 35.5, it is still available at 34.5 on some platforms.

Nikola Vucevic: Over 16.5 Points

Consider betting on Vucevic to score over 16.5 points. With potential uncertainty around the availability of key Lakers players like LeBron James and Luka Doncic (especially on the second night of a back-to-back), there`s a chance they might rest. If either or both are out, the odds could shift further in Chicago`s favor. Although Vucevic`s minutes have been slightly reduced due to fouls, if James or Doncic are out and given the Lakers` frontcourt depth issues, Vucevic could see more playing time. He averages over 20 points per game when playing 30 minutes or more this season.

Max Strus: Over 9.5 Points

If the Cavaliers game becomes a blowout as predicted, Max Strus could see increased minutes and perform well against a weaker Spurs team. Strus tends to play better at home, scoring at least 10 points in a higher percentage of home games compared to away games. The Spurs have been allowing a high average of 123.2 points per game in their recent games, and projections indicate Cleveland, including Strus, should score effectively.

Dyson Daniels: Over 5.5 Rebounds

Projections estimate Dyson Daniels will get 6.5 rebounds, and he has grabbed at least six rebounds in five of his last six games. Coming off a strong performance with near triple-double stats in his last game, Daniels is likely to see continued playing time. He has consistently exceeded 5.5 rebounds in a good portion of his recent games. Although the odds are slightly elevated, they still present good value compared to other betting options.

Fred VanVleet: Over 3.5 Rebounds

Betting on VanVleet to get over 3.5 rebounds is often a favored play when offered at plus odds. He averages close to four rebounds per game, and projections align with this average. Even though Houston is a significant favorite, and one might expect reduced minutes in a blowout to hurt his chances, his rebounding average actually increases when Houston is heavily favored, and the over on this prop has hit frequently in such situations. The offered odds for this prop are also notably better compared to other betting platforms.

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