The NBA schedule for Friday includes seven exciting games. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are under pressure to perform better than expected at the start of the season. The Suns are just outside the play-in tournament spots, while the Timberwolves are currently eighth in the conference and aiming to climb into the top six to avoid the play-in. The Timberwolves are favored by 6.5 points with a game total of 226.5. They have a mostly healthy roster, meaning star players like Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert could be interesting choices for player prop bets on betting sites. Edwards previously scored 44 points against the Suns on March 2nd and has odds of +680 on FanDuel Sportsbook to reach 40 points again on Friday.
SportsLine`s projection model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has a strong track record, generating over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top NBA picks over the last six seasons. Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), a data scientist behind this model, analyzed the simulation results and supporting data to identify player props offering the best value for Friday`s games. Remember that odds can change, so it`s wise to act quickly to get the best value.
Nikola Jokic Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+120)
Jokic has exceeded this combined steals and blocks number in two of his past three games, and his matchup against the Utah Jazz presents a favorable scenario for it to happen again. The Jazz are the most blocked team in the league, averaging 6.3 blocks against per game, and they also lead the NBA in turnovers with 16.8 per game. In their previous game on January 30th, Jokic had four steals. Oh notes that Denver being heavily favored by 17.5 points further increases the likelihood of Jokic going over this prop. Bet365 currently offers the best odds at +120.
`Blowout games don`t necessarily mean Jokic will go under on his props,` Oh told SportsLine. `When playing as a favorite of -11.5 points or more in recent seasons, Jokic has gone over this steals + blocks number in 14 out of 19 games.`
Kevin Durant Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (+100)
The projection model predicts Durant to have 1.8 steals + blocks on Friday, making the even money odds very appealing. Although Durant has gone under this number in five of his last six games, he has exceeded it in six of his last nine games against the Timberwolves, averaging 2.3 steals + blocks during that stretch. The 15-time All-Star is averaging 2.1 steals + blocks this season, and Oh believes there`s value in Durant returning to his usual performance level against the Timberwolves. Other betting apps are offering less favorable odds, making the +100 odds at Bet365 the best option for this bet.
`He hasn`t had any steals in his last four games, and sometimes that`s just down to chance and official scoring,` Oh explained. `Looking at his game log, a four-game stretch without steals is already his longest in recent seasons, suggesting he is due for a breakout tonight.`
Stephen Curry Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (+100)
Curry (pelvic contusion) has missed the last two games but is likely to return on Friday, according to coach Steve Kerr. The Warriors need Curry back after losing their last two games without him and dropping to seventh place in the Western Conference. Curry recorded three steals in his last game against the Nuggets on Monday. The Warriors will be playing the Pelicans, who rank 18th in the league in turnovers per game (14.1).
`After missing two games, Curry is likely to return, and with the Warriors struggling in their recent losses, I expect him to not only play but also play his usual minutes,` Oh said. `Based on these expectations, we project Curry for 1.6 steals + blocks, making the plus-money odds on the over appealing, especially considering it`s around his average.`
Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
Cade Cunningham (calf) remains out for the Pistons, which means another significant opportunity for Hardaway. The 33-year-old small forward had 12 points, two rebounds, and four assists without Cunningham on Tuesday, and he has exceeded this total in four of his last five games when Cunningham is absent. The model projects Hardaway Jr. to have 17.1 PRA (points, rebounds, assists) and indicates strong value in taking this bet early. BetMGM is offering the best odds at -105.
`He has gone over this number in 73.5% of home games without Cunningham, averaging 15.3 PRA,` Oh stated. `Without Cunningham, this game should be statistically better than average for him. I don`t expect this line to stay at 12.5 for long, and I would still take it up to 14.5, and definitely at 13.5.`
Scottie Barnes Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)
The model projects Barnes to achieve 20 points, eight rebounds, and six assists, comfortably exceeding this prop. This is largely due to RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, and Ochai Agbaji being out, placing more responsibility on Barnes. He has gone over this number in three of his last four games and is averaging 33.3 PRA this season, exceeding 29.5 in 70.7% of his games (41-17) leading into the game against the Charlotte Hornets. While some sportsbooks have already increased this line to 30.5, DraftKings Sportsbook is still offering it at 29.5.
`Charlotte`s defense is a good matchup for Barnes, as the Hornets allow a high 56% shooting percentage on two-pointers, and six of their last eight opponents have shot at least 39% from three-point range,` Oh told SportsLine. `Charlotte has been outrebounded by double digits in two of their last three games, while Toronto has dominated the boards in their last two games (+20, +12).`
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
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Jasper Hawthorne