Tyrese Haliburton`s memorable performance in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, highlighted by a last-second game-tying three-pointer, set a high bar. He aims for a similar start in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals as the Indiana Pacers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET. Haliburton scored 31 points in Indiana`s initial win against the Knicks. A sophisticated projection model anticipates the Pacers` star point guard to once again exceed his total points line.
Haliburton has surpassed the 20-point mark in his last two playoff Game 1 appearances. His points over/under for this matchup is currently set at 17.5. Haliburton is expected to be a popular choice in game-specific bets, potentially combined with Oklahoma City`s MVP candidate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has consistently delivered significant returns for players on its top-rated NBA selections over recent seasons. Stephen Oh, a Data Scientist involved with the model, analyzed the simulation outcomes to identify which player props offer the most significant value for the upcoming game.
Best Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 1 Player Props:
- Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds (-118)
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (+102)
- Myles Turner Over 5.5 rebounds (+115)
Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds (-118)
The model projects Holmgren to exceed his individual totals for points, rebounds, and assists, finding the most favorable betting value in combining these stats for the Over 27.5 PRA bet. While he`s only surpassed this combined line in eight of 26 games this season, this is largely attributed to limited minutes in many of Oklahoma City`s lopsided victories. With the Thunder having enjoyed over a week off since their last game, a substantial workload is expected for Holmgren in Game 1, even if the game trends towards a blowout. Holmgren exceeded this mark in three of the four Western Conference Finals games where he played at least 30 minutes.
The expert notes that given Indiana`s remarkable comeback capability this postseason, Oklahoma City is unlikely to ease up, even with a large lead, ensuring continued minutes for Holmgren. He also highlighted Holmgren`s strong response in rebounding after facing Denver`s imposing frontcourt and his improved scoring after a difficult game against Minnesota.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (+102)
Haliburton scored 21 points in 37 minutes during Indiana`s Game 6 victory over the Knicks, exceeding this point total in four out of six contests in that series. He averaged 18.6 points per game during the regular season, and the model projects him to score 19.5 points in Game 1, making the Over 17.5 at favorable +102 odds an appealing play. He has averaged 18.8 ppg this postseason, showing increased aggression in his shot attempts (14.6 field-goal attempts per game vs. 13.8) and playing more minutes (35.1 vs. 33.6) compared to the regular season. Expect Haliburton to be motivated to prove he can compete offensively with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the favorite to be the series` leading scorer. Haliburton has recorded two games with 30 or more points this postseason.
Myles Turner Over 5.5 rebounds (+115)
Turner did not exceed this rebounding mark in any of Indiana`s six games against the Knicks. However, he did surpass 5.5 rebounds in four of five games against the Cavaliers and averaged 6.5 rebounds per game throughout the season, leading the model to view this prop as a buy-low opportunity. The model projects Turner for seven rebounds in Game 1. He recorded 11 rebounds against the Thunder in a competitive loss in December and secured five boards even in limited minutes during a blowout loss in March.
The Pacers will rely on Turner`s size to counter the Thunder`s presence inside, particularly Chet Holmgren. With both teams playing at a high pace throughout the postseason (top three) and the regular season (top seven), there should be numerous shots and rebounding opportunities for Turner.
Additional NBA Picks for Thunder vs. Pacers Game 1
Beyond player props, the projection model also offers insights and picks for the spread, total, and moneyline for Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals. These picks are derived from the model`s extensive game simulations.
Expert Mike Barner, known for his successful history with NBA picks, also provides his top selections for Game 1, including a pick related to the 2025 NBA MVP Award winner. His analysis and plays are available for review.
Furthermore, expert Alex Selesnick, known as PropStarz, has shared his NBA player prop pick for Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals, building on his successful track record with player prop bets.
Jasper Hawthorne