The Boston Celtics, favored by 10.5 points in their Game 2 matchup against the Magic, may be without key player Jayson Tatum due to a wrist issue. However, the Celtics` status as reigning NBA champions is partly due to their impressive depth. Even with core players like Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis, role players such as Derrick White and Payton Pritchard stepped up significantly, being the top scorers in their 103-86 Game 1 win over the Magic.
For those looking at NBA prop bets on Wednesday, the question arises: can these role players perform strongly again, especially if Tatum is sidelined? Payton Pritchard, who was recognized as the NBA Sixth Man of the Year and scored 19 points in the first game, has a points total set at 11.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, with some other platforms raising it to 12.5 points. Is he a player worth including in your NBA player props for today?
To help navigate these decisions, the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has a history of delivering substantial returns for players over the past six-plus seasons. Stephen Oh, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, has analyzed the simulation outcomes and provided supporting details for the player props offering the best value on today`s schedule. Given that NBA odds can shift, it`s recommended to consider these picks promptly for optimal value.
Cole Anthony Over 4.5 points (-135)
Cole Anthony scored four points in just 10 minutes during Game 1. The allocation of minutes for Orlando`s guards has been somewhat unpredictable recently. However, Anthony demonstrated his capability and earned trust by scoring 26 points in 20 minutes during the Magic`s Play-In Tournament victory over the Hawks, delivering a strong performance in a crucial game. The 24-year-old guard finished the season averaging 9.4 points per game and reached at least five points in 21 out of 25 games since early February.
`I have struggled taking low lines set well under a player`s regular season average in these playoffs… but this one is just too tempting to pass up,` Oh commented. `He does average nearly 1.5 points less on the road at 8.9, but that`s still way over this line. He scored 5+ points in 20 of 34 (58.8%) road games.`
Jarrett Allen Over 11.5 points (-130)
The projection model forecasts Jarrett Allen scoring 13.7 points for Wednesday`s game, identifying this as a potential buy-low opportunity. Allen has finished below this number in three of his last four games, although in one of those games, he only played for one minute. Despite this recent dip, he managed 12 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1 against the Heat. While Allen hasn`t exceeded 12 points in any of his last five appearances, Oh anticipates the Cavaliers will utilize their size advantage more effectively in Game 2.
`I`m going to go with his strong overall season trend of 14.3 pts per game (28-14 Over),` Oh stated. `Bam Adebayo and Kal`el Ware only had one personal foul each in Game 1 with Allen and Mobley combining for just 21 points (less than Bam`s 24 alone). I`m looking for Cleveland`s bigs to come out more offensively aggressive to get Miami`s bigs in foul trouble.`
Stephen Curry Over 9.5 rebounds + assists (-135)
Stephen Curry averaged 10.4 rebounds plus assists per game during the regular season, a figure the model also projects for Wednesday`s contest. The future Hall of Famer is renowned for his elite shooting, but he contributes significantly in other areas too, particularly in road games where he averages 11.4 rebounds + assists, compared to 9.5 at home. This season, he recorded at least 10 rebounds + assists in 23 out of 37 road games (62.2%). Even though Curry had a combined nine (six rebounds and three assists) in Game 1, he has historically averaged at least 11 rebounds + assists in each of the last five postseasons, including the 2022 and 2023 playoffs.
`The line is low because Houston is a great rebounding and defensive team and Steph has only averaged 9.4 (3-4 over) vs. the Rockets the last two seasons,` Oh explained. `The game total is down to 203, which is 23 points less than the line (226) was in their April 6 matchup. Our 5.4 projected assists does reflect this fact (he averages nearly six on the road), but while teams could play at a slightly slower pace, this significantly lower total also should mean a lot more missed shots and rebounding opportunities to make up for fewer assists.`
Jasper Hawthorne