With crucial games impacting NBA Play-In tournament seeding, Tuesday`s matchups offer exciting player prop betting opportunities. The Timberwolves, Warriors, Clippers, and Grizzlies are closely ranked, making their games particularly significant. Ja Morant of the Grizzlies, fresh off two 30+ point games, is considered a potential pick to continue his scoring streak against the Hornets.
Experts at SportsLine have analyzed thousands of game simulations to identify the best player prop values. Their data-driven approach highlights key opportunities in tonight`s games.
Stephen Curry Over 3.5 Rebounds
Despite recent games with fewer rebounds, projections suggest Stephen Curry is likely to exceed 3.5 rebounds tonight. He averages 4.3 rebounds per game, and this projection aligns with that average. Facing the Suns in a critical seeding game, Curry has a history of exceeding this rebound mark against Phoenix. The Warriors are favored, which historically benefits Curry`s rebound numbers, especially on the road where he performs better.
According to analyst Stephen Oh, Curry`s rebound average is higher on the road and when the Warriors are strong favorites, increasing the likelihood of him going over 3.5 rebounds.
Seth Curry Over 8.5 Points
Seth Curry, Stephen`s brother, is also projected to exceed his points prop. He`s averaging nearly 12 points in his last three games and is expected to play significant minutes for the Hornets. Charlotte`s injury situation could lead to increased playing time and scoring opportunities for Curry, particularly from three-point range. The Grizzlies` defense tends to allow higher three-point shooting percentages on the road, further favoring Curry`s chances to score.
Stephen Oh suggests Seth Curry might play over 30 minutes, given the team`s needs and Memphis`s defensive tendencies against three-point shooters on the road.
Jordan Poole Over 0.5 Steals
Jordan Poole is favored to get at least one steal in tonight`s game. Projections give him a 65% chance, offering good value considering the implied probability. Despite slightly reduced playing time recently, the fast pace of the game between the Wizards and Pacers should provide ample opportunities for steals. Poole`s road game performance and past matchups against Indiana also support this prop bet.
Oh highlights Poole`s strong road steal record and success against Indiana as reasons to favor the over on this prop.
Derrick White Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks
Derrick White is predicted to exceed 1.5 combined steals and blocks. While his recent stats are slightly below this average, projections anticipate a bounce-back performance. Historically, White tends to perform well in close games and against the Knicks, his opponent tonight. Analysts believe he is due for a game with more steals and blocks, making the combined prop a valuable bet.
Stephen Oh points to White`s past over streak and performance in close games as indicators for a positive outcome on this prop.
Julius Randle Over 4.5 Assists
Julius Randle is projected to exceed 4.5 assists. Despite recent games slightly below this mark, his season average is close, and projections for tonight are favorable. The game against the Bucks is expected to be fast-paced and high-scoring, creating more assist opportunities. Although his road assist numbers are typically lower, the game environment against Milwaukee is expected to be conducive to assists.
According to Stephen Oh, while Randle`s road assist numbers are usually lower, the faster pace and higher scoring nature of Milwaukee`s home games increase the potential for him to go over 4.5 assists.
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Jasper Hawthorne