The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament tips off on Tuesday with crucial games in both the Eastern and Western Conferences to determine the No. 7 seeds. First, the Orlando Magic, favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 219, will host the Atlanta Hawks at 7:30 p.m. ET. Later, the Golden State Warriors, 7-point favorites with an over/under of 227.5, will play at home against the Memphis Grizzlies at 10 p.m. ET. These matchups are packed with talent, offering exciting NBA player prop betting opportunities on stars like Stephen Curry, Trae Young, and Paolo Banchero.
Golden State enters the Play-In Tournament for the second consecutive year. Last year, Curry scored only 22 points in their Play-In loss. For Tuesday`s games, his points over/under is set at 28.5. Could betting the Under on Curry`s points be a smart play?
Statistical models are used to simulate NBA games thousands of times to identify valuable betting opportunities. One model, developed by Stephen Oh, suggests some player props offer significant value for today`s games. Remember that odds can fluctuate, so it`s wise to act quickly to secure the best value.
Onyeka Okongwu Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (-160)
The model predicts Okongwu will get one steal and 1.2 blocks, totaling 2.2 steals + blocks. Based on this projection, the odds for Over 1.5 steals + blocks should be closer to -240, making the current -160 odds a good value. While the Orlando Magic are not frequently blocked (4.4 times per game), this number increases to 5.0 in home games. Okongwu also performs slightly better on the road, averaging 1.9 steals + blocks compared to 1.7 at home, with the Over hitting in 55% of games. The game dynamics on Tuesday are expected to favor Okongwu exceeding this total.
According to Oh, “Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner might be more aggressive driving to the basket at home, anticipating favorable foul calls, which could lead to more scoring attempts but also more blocked shots.” You can find this bet at -160 odds.
Cole Anthony Over 5.5 Points (+100)
Anthony played a career-low 18.5 minutes per game this NBA season, and his playoff role is uncertain. However, he has played at least 20 minutes in six of his last 11 games since March. In those six games with 20+ minutes, he scored at least six points each time, and in eight of the 11 games overall. Despite missing two weeks in late March due to a toe injury, Anthony exceeded 5.5 points in three of four April games alongside Banchero and Wagner, even while averaging just 16.3 minutes.
The model projects Anthony to score 11.2 points on Tuesday. Despite potential uncertainty in playing time, betting on Anthony to score just six points at even odds is appealing. While some sportsbooks have odds as low as -125 for this Over, you can find it at even odds.
Zach Edey Over 8.5 Points (-114)
This will be Edey`s first experience in an NBA playoff atmosphere, but the two-time college player of the year is no stranger to high-stakes basketball. The model anticipates Edey elevating his performance in this crucial game, projecting him to score 9.8 points on Tuesday. Edey averaged 9.2 points per game this season, making the 8.5 over/under seem low compared to both his average and the projection, presenting good value. The 7-foot-4 center scored 10 points against the Warriors on April 1st.
Oh notes, “Players of his size can sometimes be benched in fast-paced, 3-point focused games, but Edey has shown he can adapt, shooting a respectable 34.6% from three on almost one attempt per game. We are simply projecting his usual offensive output, consistent with his 9.2 road game average.” Favorable odds for this bet are available at -114.
Looking for More NBA Picks?
These are just a few of the model`s top NBA prop picks for Tuesday. For complete NBA player prop projections, check out more at SportsLine.
For expert betting advice on Tuesday`s NBA games and player props, visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall`s picks, who has a strong 89-62-1 record (+2075) over his last 152 NBA picks.
SportsLine also features player prop specialists like Mike Barner, who boasts an impressive 136-88 record (+3273) over his last 224 player props. Visit SportsLine to see Barner`s NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, including a play on a Golden State star.
Jasper Hawthorne