The Oklahoma City Thunder are on the verge of reaching the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. They hold a 3-2 lead in the series against the Denver Nuggets and aim to secure the decisive victory on the road this Thursday. The Thunder gained this advantage by winning the last two games, including a 112-105 triumph on Tuesday, where they dominated the fourth quarter by 15 points.
Key performances in the recent game came from Oklahoma City`s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored 31 points, and Denver`s Nikola Jokic, who put up 44 points. The expected output of these stars heavily influences player prop betting markets for the upcoming game.
According to analysis from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates NBA games extensively, specific player props offer strong value for Thursday`s game. Data Scientist Stephen Oh analyzed the model`s results to identify these favorable bets, drawing on the model`s successful track record in predicting NBA outcomes.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 0.5 assists (-150)
The model forecasts Michael Porter Jr. to record 1.2 assists on Thursday, suggesting an 80% probability of exceeding the 0.5 assists line, which is favorable compared to the implied odds. While he had no assists in five of his last seven games, he did have two assists on Tuesday. He averaged 2.1 assists per game during the regular season, including 2.0 at home, where he recorded at least one assist in 34 out of 43 games (79.1%). This is considered a potential `buy-low` opportunity, factoring in his expected significant playing time in a must-win contest. If his shooting is off, he may look to facilitate for teammates more.
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 9.5 rebounds (-110)
Isaiah Hartenstein has finished under this total in three of the five games played in this series, notably grabbing only seven rebounds on Tuesday. His defensive challenge against Nikola Jokic, one of the NBA`s most formidable offensive players, frequently leads to foul trouble and limits Hartenstein`s minutes. He has played under 30 minutes twice and never more than 33 minutes in this series, often due to fouls. With the Nuggets facing elimination, Jokic is likely to maintain his aggressive approach after his 44-point performance, which could further impact Hartenstein`s minutes and rebounding opportunities. Hartenstein averaged just nine rebounds against Denver in their two regular-season matchups and has generally found it challenging to dominate the boards against Jokic compared to other opponents. He`s also gone under this total in 14 of his last 25 games against winning teams, averaging 9.2 rebounds in those contests. The model projects him for 7.9 rebounds on Thursday.
Alex Caruso Over 2.5 assists (+145)
Alex Caruso has recorded exactly two assists in his last three games. However, given the odds provided, the model identifies value in betting on him to surpass the 2.5 assist mark on Thursday. The model projects Caruso for 2.5 assists in Game 6 as the Thunder push to advance to the conference finals. In the previous series against the Grizzlies, Caruso averaged 3.8 assists per game, exceeding this total in all four contests. He has also surpassed this number in three of his last five road games, averaging 4.0 assists over that period. The Nuggets defense ranked 27th in the regular season in assists allowed per game (28.6), which could make this a potentially strong plus-money wager.
Jasper Hawthorne