Monday`s NBA schedule features two games with playoff implications: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat and Sacramento Kings vs. Detroit Pistons. Both the Heat and Kings are headed to the Play-In Tournament. The Heat are aiming to improve their seeding to avoid the first elimination game, while the Kings want to secure homecourt advantage as the ninth seed in the West. Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo has been on a scoring streak, exceeding 20 points in his last four games. His points over/under is set at 20.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, and 21.5 on other platforms, making it an interesting prop bet for Monday.
SportsLine`s projection model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has been highly successful, generating over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on top-rated NBA picks over the past six seasons. Stephen Oh, a data scientist behind this model, has analyzed the simulations to pinpoint player props with the most value for today`s games. Remember that NBA odds are subject to change, so act quickly to maximize your potential winnings.
Bam Adebayo Over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists (-136)
Adebayo has surpassed this combined total in three of his last six games, including a recent performance against the Bucks with 12 rebounds and five assists. He`s consistently reached at least 11 rebounds and assists in each of these six games, staying close to or above this mark for the past two weeks. According to Stephen Oh, the matchup against the smaller and less complete 76ers is favorable for Adebayo. Oh anticipates a strong rebounding game for Bam, noting that his Over 13.5 rebounds + assists at home is a solid 22-17 this season, and an even stronger 9-3 when the Heat are favored by at least 8 points, despite playing slightly fewer minutes in such games.
The model predicts 11 rebounds and five assists for Adebayo on Monday, both exceeding their individual lines. However, the model identifies the best value in combining these two stats. FanDuel is still offering the total at 13.5, while other sportsbooks have increased it to 14.5, making the 13.5 line on FanDuel particularly appealing.
Ausar Thompson Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+115)
Ausar Thompson, the fifth overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, has exceeded 2.5 steals and blocks in two of his last three games. The projection model forecasts him to have 2.6 steals + blocks. He averages 2.5 steals + blocks in home games this season, making the plus-money odds for this prop a valuable bet according to Oh. Thompson has played at least 30 minutes in the Pistons` last four games, and the model expects this trend to continue.
Stephen Oh points out that injuries to Tobias Harris and Jalen Duren could further increase Thompson`s playing time. While the model projects 28 minutes with both players factored in, Thompson could easily play 30+ minutes. He has achieved 3 or more steals + blocks in 14 out of 21 games when playing 25+ minutes, making 25 minutes a likely minimum for tonight.
Lonnie Walker IV Under 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-106)
Lonnie Walker IV has stayed below his points + rebounds line in three of his last five games, averaging 13.2 in that period. While he scored 18 points against the Timberwolves on Saturday, he had a poor performance against the Bucks in the game prior, scoring only four points on 2-of-7 shooting with four rebounds in 17 minutes, falling well short of his total. Walker`s performance has been inconsistent, and the model does not project a strong showing for him on Monday.
The 76ers are facing the Heat, who boast the seventh-best scoring defense in the league, allowing 109.9 points per game this season. In their previous matchup on March 29th, Walker had just 10 points and one rebound in 21 minutes against Miami. The model predicts a similar struggle for Walker on Monday, projecting him at 9.4 points + rebounds in another difficult game against the Heat. Caesars Sportsbook currently offers the most favorable odds at -106 for this under bet.
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Jasper Hawthorne