The Oklahoma City Thunder, known for their league-leading defense, will face the Indiana Pacers. In their previous matchup in December, Oklahoma City won 120-114, limiting Pacers` star Tyrese Haliburton to just four points. Haliburton`s over/under for points on Saturday is set at 17.5. He has consistently achieved 10 or more assists in 12 of his last 13 games, with his assist total set at 9.5. Is this a good prop bet to consider for Saturday night?
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has a strong track record, returning over $10,000 to $100 players on top-rated NBA picks over the past six seasons. Stephen Oh, a Data Scientist behind this model, has analyzed the simulations to identify player props with the best value.
Ja Morant Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
The Memphis Grizzlies made a surprising coaching change, replacing Taylor Jenkins with interim coach Tuomas Iisalo with only nine games left in the season. Ja Morant, who has missed the last six games due to a hamstring strain, might return for a crucial game against the Lakers. The Grizzlies are currently tied with the Lakers for fourth place in the Western Conference. The prediction model anticipates Morant to perform strongly for Memphis on Saturday.
According to Oh from SportsLine, the model projects 34.5 for Morant, slightly above his 33.8 average, and he has exceeded 29.5 in 31 out of 43 games (72.1%).
Josh Giddey Under 23.5 points (-140)
Josh Giddey recently made a game-winning 46.5-foot shot against the Lakers, concluding an impressive rally in the game`s final seconds. Over his last 10 games, the 22-year-old has accumulated 220 points, 96 rebounds, and 100 assists, joining a select group of eight players in NBA history to reach these numbers. However, this recent performance might have inflated his prop totals. The model predicts Giddey to score 21.2 points on Saturday.
Oh suggests that even players on a hot streak like Giddey are due for a less impactful game, especially after an emotionally charged win against the Lakers.
Jordan Poole Over 15.5 points (-120)
Jordan Poole has consistently scored at least 18 points in his last five games, a trend expected to continue on Saturday. Oh points out that Washington might be showcasing Poole as a trade asset, which contributes to the model projecting him to score 18.5 points against Brooklyn. Poole has exceeded 15.5 points in 23 of 30 home games and in 71.4% of his games this season overall.
Oh commented that as long as Washington maintains their current strategy, Poole should score at least 16 points, even if it requires a high number of field goal attempts.
Luka Doncic Under 30.5 points (-115)
Luka Doncic has scored 31 or more points in four of his last five games, often just surpassing the mark. He hasn`t exceeded 34 points since March 13, and scored 25 points against Chicago on Thursday. LeBron James`s absence for five games before his return might have provided Doncic with increased scoring opportunities. The model predicts Doncic to score 28.6 points against the Grizzlies on Saturday, suggesting value in betting the Under.
Luguentz Dort Over 9.5 points (-110)
Luguentz Dort has reached double figures in scoring in four of his last six games and has scored at least seven points in every game since March 9. He scored 13 points against the Kings on Tuesday and nine against Memphis on Thursday. Dort is averaging 9.9 points per game this season and has exceeded his points prop in 15 of 25 home games against teams with winning records. The model projects him to score 12.6 points, offering a comfortable margin over his current prop total.
For more NBA player prop projections for tonight, explore SportsLine for projections on every player prop.
Jasper Hawthorne