The final spots in the 2025 NBA playoffs will be decided after Friday`s NBA Play-In Tournament games. The Atlanta Hawks are set to host the Miami Heat, and the Memphis Grizzlies will host the Dallas Mavericks to determine the No. 8 seeds in each conference. Both the Heat and Mavericks are aiming for their second consecutive road victory to secure a postseason berth after finishing as the 10th seed in their respective conferences. They will rely on strong performances from key players such as Tyler Herro for Miami and Anthony Davis for Dallas to achieve another upset.

Herro, coming off a 38-point game on Wednesday, is expected to be a popular choice for NBA player props. His over/under for total points is set at 25.5 in NBA prop bets, and he has odds of +520 to score over 35 points on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has shown significant returns for bettors. Stephen Oh, a Data Scientist behind this model, has analyzed the results to identify player props with the best value for today`s games. It`s important to note that NBA odds can fluctuate, so acting quickly is advisable for maximum value.

Dyson Daniels Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (-125)

Dyson Daniels has exceeded this combined steals and blocks number in his last five regular-season games and in 15 out of 18 games leading up to the Play-In Tournament. Although he didn`t reach this mark in Atlanta’s first Play-In game, he did record two blocks. Daniels has been a consistent defensive playmaker, securing multiple steals in 16 of his last 18 regular-season games. Stephen Oh believes that one game without a steal shouldn`t significantly lower expectations, especially considering Daniels` home average of 4.1 steals + blocks, compared to 3.3 on the road. He has surpassed this line in 78.4% of home games. DraftKings Sportsbook currently offers the best odds for this prop at -125.

Zach Edey Under 12.5 Rebounds (-122)

Zach Edey has been a dominant rebounder for Memphis since April, grabbing at least 13 rebounds in six of his last seven games. However, he faces tough competition for rebounds against Dallas` strong frontcourt of Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford. Oh suggests that oddsmakers may have overestimated Edey`s rebound total due to recent performances, especially against a Mavericks team that is now more defensively focused.

According to Oh, Edey`s rebound rate was consistently around 0.37 rebounds per minute until April, when it jumped to 51.4% over the last seven games. He attributes this surge to facing weaker teams and some fortunate bounces, making this rate unsustainable. There`s also a possibility of early foul trouble for Edey, which could limit his playing time and keep him under the projected rebound total. FanDuel Sportsbook offers the best odds for this under bet at -122.

Ja Morant Over 6.5 Assists (+105)

Despite going under 6.5 assists in five of his last six games since the start of April, Ja Morant has been close to this number, recording exactly six assists in three of those games. Notably, four of these six games were against teams already qualified for the 2025 NBA playoffs. Against teams not currently in the postseason, Morant has exceeded 6.5 assists in three of his last four games, including eight assists against Dallas on March 7.

Morant averages 9.6 assists in his last 14 home games against teams with losing records, going over his assist total in 10 of those games. While he is listed as a game-time decision due to an ankle injury sustained against the Warriors, his importance in a crucial Play-In game makes it likely he will play if healthy. In high-stakes situations like Friday`s game, Morant`s assist numbers tend to be consistently high. DraftKings Sportsbook offers the best odds for this over bet at +105.

For more NBA expert betting advice and player prop projections, consider visiting SportsLine.