Friday`s NBA schedule is packed with exciting Western Conference matchups that could be previews of the playoffs. Games like Thunder vs. Rockets and Warriors vs. Nuggets showcase some of the NBA`s brightest stars, making them prime targets for player prop bets. This includes past MVP winners Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic, as well as this season`s MVP frontrunner, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Gilgeous-Alexander, currently favored to win MVP and leading the league in scoring with 32.8 points per game, has a points over/under of 31.5 for his game against Houston. After scoring 51 points in his previous game against the Rockets, the question is whether betting the Over on his points prop is the right move for Friday.

SportsLine`s projection model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has a strong track record, returning over $10,000 to $100 bettors on top-rated NBA picks over the last six seasons. Stephen Oh, a data scientist behind this model, has analyzed the simulations to identify player props with significant value for Friday`s games. Remember that odds can change, so it`s wise to act quickly to get the best value.

Nikola Jokic: Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks

Nikola Jokic, a three-time MVP, is favored to exceed 1.5 steals and blocks at odds of -180. In his last game against Golden State, Jokic achieved a season-high of five steals along with one block. Coming off a strong performance with a triple-double and two steals on Tuesday, and rested on Wednesday, Jokic should be ready for tonight`s game. His history against the Warriors supports this prop bet, as he has averaged 3.6 steals plus blocks in his last five games against them.

According to Stephen Oh`s analysis, the projection model estimates Jokic will get 1.54 steals and 0.67 blocks. Oh suggests that based on these projections, the line should be set higher, between -230 and -250, making the current -180 odds a valuable opportunity. He even predicts this prop could be covered in the first quarter.

LeBron James: Over 1.5 Made 3-Pointers

LeBron James is favored to make over 1.5 three-pointers at odds of -184. In Thursday`s game against the Warriors, James hit five 3-pointers out of eight attempts, marking his third consecutive game with multiple 3-pointers. After a shooting slump following a two-week injury absence, James has found his rhythm again, making 52.9% of his 3-point attempts recently. His matchup against New Orleans, a team that allows the third-most 3-pointers in the league, further supports betting the Over.

Stephen Oh highlights James` strong home performance from beyond the arc, averaging 2.7 three-pointers at home compared to 1.7 on the road, with a 75% over rate for this prop at home versus 42.4% on the road.

DeMar DeRozan: Over 3.5 Rebounds

DeMar DeRozan is set at over 3.5 rebounds with odds of +105. He has exceeded this line in his last two games, grabbing seven rebounds in each. His opponent, Sacramento, faces Charlotte, who allows many rebounding opportunities due to their low field goal percentages (lowest FG and 2P percentage, third-lowest 3P percentage in the NBA). Stephen Oh points out DeRozan`s tendency to perform well against weaker teams, making the Over a favorable bet.

Oh notes that with the Kings being significant favorites, DeRozan tends to excel. He has secured 4 or more rebounds in 10 out of 14 games where the Kings were favored by at least 8.5 points, even in games with limited playing time.

Max Strus: Over 8.5 Points

Max Strus is projected to score over 8.5 points with odds of -125. Stephen Oh`s projection anticipates Strus scoring nearly 11 points against the struggling Spurs, who have lost five of their last six games. In their recent game last Thursday, Strus scored 18 points against San Antonio. The Spurs have also been vulnerable to opposing small forwards, as seen when Denver`s Hunter Tyson scored a career-high 18 points against them on Wednesday.

According to Oh, a points line of 11.5 would have been expected for Strus last season, as he scored 9 or more points in 67% of his games. He appears to be returning to that scoring level, with a recent streak of going over this points prop in 7 straight games and increasing his average to 10.5 points per game in the last month.

Nick Richards: Over 9.5 Points + Assists

Nick Richards is favored to exceed 9.5 points and assists combined at odds of -120. With Kevin Durant still out for the Suns, Richards is expected to play significant minutes. In the last game without Durant, Richards played over 30 minutes and scored 13 points. In the three games Durant has missed, Richards has averaged 10.3 points plus assists. Stephen Oh believes Richards is likely to exceed this prop based on points alone.

Oh`s projection for Richards is 9.8 points, suggesting a high probability of covering the prop with points alone, making any assists an added bonus.

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