Thursday`s NBA schedule features a trio of Game 3 matchups in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. The action starts with Knicks vs. Pistons at 7 p.m. ET, followed by Thunder vs. Grizzlies at 9:30 p.m. ET, and the night concludes with Clippers vs. Nuggets at 10 p.m. ET. Bettors interested in NBA player props will likely focus on star players such as Cade Cunningham, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Jalen Brunson, with their point totals drawing significant attention.
For the matchup in Detroit, Cunningham and Brunson`s points totals are set at 28.5 in the latest NBA prop bets. With Cunningham having scored 35 or more points in his last three home games, and Brunson topping 30 points in five of his six games against the Pistons this season, is simply betting the “Over” as straightforward as it appears for these NBA prop picks?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has been highly successful, returning over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), one of the Data Scientists behind the model, analyzed the simulation results and supporting evidence to pinpoint which player props offer the best value for today`s slate. Keep in mind that NBA odds can fluctuate, so acting promptly is advised for maximum value.
Zach Edey Over 7.5 points (-122)
Before the first two games of Memphis` series against OKC, Edey had exceeded 7.5 points in 18 of his preceding 25 games (72%). However, he scored just four points in both Game 1 and Game 2 as the Grizzlies suffered large losses, combining for a 70-point deficit. Oh anticipates that Memphis will need to alter its strategy from the initial two games, as repeating the same approach would likely yield the same outcome. He believes this necessary strategic change will involve making Edey a central figure.
“Chet Holmgren has been very effective against Memphis, with 39 points, 21 rebounds, and only 2 personal fouls in the first 2 games,” Oh commented. “Memphis must try something to get Chet into foul trouble, and hopefully, for the sake of this bet, that involves establishing Edey as an offensive threat.” Edey`s points line was initially 10.5 at the start of this series but has decreased following his two subpar performances. This makes 7.5 a favorable line to target now, especially as most other sportsbooks have it at 8.5.
Christian Braun Over 11.5 points (-112)
The Nuggets` shooting guard has gone over 11.5 points in eight of his most recent 11 games overall, narrowly missing in two others where he finished with exactly 11 points. This season, Braun has hit the Over on his points prop in 71.8% of road games as the Nuggets vs. Clippers series moves to Los Angeles. Denver has primarily relied on a six-man rotation in this series so far, with Braun averaging 39.7 minutes per game. He exceeded 11.5 points in 23 out of 27 regular-season games where he played more than 35 minutes.
“Overall, the over 11.5 is hitting at an impressive 69.1% (with an average of 15.2 points) and an even higher 71.8% on the road, including eight consecutive overs from March 24 to April 11,” Oh stated regarding Braun`s points props. “Our projection for him is 13.6 points, which accounts for his recent slightly lower scoring and the generally lower scoring nature of playoff games, but we are still 17% above the set line.”
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+115)
The model forecasts Towns to make 1.9 three-pointers, aligning closely with his season average of 2.0 made per game. While most players shoot better at home, the Knicks` big man shows better shooting percentages across the board on the road, including from beyond the arc. Furthermore, Detroit`s defense at home allows opponents to shoot 38% from three-point range, compared to 35% on the road. Although Towns has made only one three-pointer in this series so far, his performance throughout the season suggests he is more comfortable and effective away from Madison Square Garden.
“When you are significantly outplayed in the first two games at home and your most gifted pure scorer is a big man who isn`t a primary playmaker, the coaching staff typically adapts by getting that big (in this case, KAT) the ball early and often,” said Oh. He also noted that Towns has hit the over on 1.5 made three-pointers in 64.1% of road games, versus 51.4% of home games.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You`ve seen the model`s NBA prop picks for some popular bets on Thursday. You can get NBA projections for every player prop available.
- You can also find expert betting advice before making your Thursday NBA picks or player props. See expert Bruce Marshall`s picks, who has a strong record over his recent NBA picks.
- SportsLine also features multiple experts who specialize in player and team props, including Mike Barner, who has a very profitable record on NBA player props. Discover who Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Thursday, which features a bet on one of New York`s prominent players.
Jasper Hawthorne