Thursday`s NBA schedule features six games, including key matchups between playoff contenders. One notable game is Grizzlies versus Heat, where Memphis, despite losing four in a row, is favored by 4.5 points against Miami, who have won six straight.
For player prop bets, the Lakers versus Warriors game at 10 p.m. ET is a prime focus. LeBron James and Stephen Curry will continue their rivalry, and Luka Doncic will face Golden State for the first time as a Laker. Doncic`s point total is set at 28.5, with odds favoring the Under. Should you consider him for your NBA prop bets on Thursday?
An analytical model, which has historically performed well in NBA predictions, has identified some player props with strong potential value for this season. Odds can change, so it`s advisable to act quickly.
LeBron James: Over 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (Odds: -150)
LeBron James has made at least two 3-pointers in his last two games. Playing against Stephen Curry, a legendary 3-point shooter, often brings out James` best. He shoots nearly 40% from three against Golden State, his third-highest rate against any team. In his last six games against the Warriors, James has exceeded 1.5 made 3-pointers four times, averaging 2.3 per game.
According to an analyst, James performs better as a shooter at home. At home, he averages 2.6 three-pointers per game and exceeds 1.5 in nearly 75% of games, compared to 1.7 on the road. The best odds for this prop are at -150.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Over 6.5 Assists (Odds: -122)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently averaging 6.0 assists per game, and his playmaking role is expected to increase with Damian Lillard out due to a calf injury. Over his last three games, Antetokounmpo has averaged 7.7 assists. He is set to play against the 76ers, a team that allows opponents to shoot with high efficiency. The Sixers allow the highest field goal percentage in the NBA, which should create more assist opportunities for Antetokounmpo as Milwaukee`s shooters benefit.
An analyst noted that while Antetokounmpo`s assists were initially lower in the first three games without Lillard, he has since increased his assist numbers, recording 7, 5, and 11 in his most recent games. The best odds for this prop are at -122.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (Odds: +135)
When Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plays 30 or more minutes, he averages 2.0 steals plus blocks. He has been playing around 30 minutes recently, averaging 30.5 minutes in his last 16 games. He will be facing the Wizards, who are very generous in allowing opponent steals, ranking third-most in the NBA with 9.2 steals allowed per game.
An analyst suggests this is a strong value bet at plus money, as Caldwell-Pope`s average and projected steals plus blocks are close to 1.9, and he`s been playing significant minutes. Favorable odds are available for this prop.
Alec Burks: Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (Odds: -115)
Betting models favor the Over for Alec Burks due to increased playing time expected as Miami plays on the second night of a back-to-back. With Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, and Duncan Robinson out, Burks will help fill their minutes. The game against Memphis, who play at the NBA`s fastest pace, should also benefit Burks` box score stats.
According to an analyst, Burks has exceeded 12.5 points + rebounds + assists in a significant majority of games where he plays at least 20 minutes. The best odds are currently at -115.
Deni Avdija: Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (Odds: +105)
Several Trail Blazers players who typically play significant minutes are questionable or out for their game against Toronto. Deni Avdija has been playing heavy minutes recently, averaging 37.1 minutes over his last 11 games, and 1.8 steals alone in his last six. The Raptors are a favorable matchup as they allow the second-most blocks and fifth-most steals per game to opponents.
An analyst believes getting this prop at +105 odds offers good value. With injuries on his team, Avdija is expected to play extensive minutes and is projected to exceed 1.5 steals + blocks.
Looking for more NBA picks for tonight? Explore NBA projections for all player props.
Jasper Hawthorne