The Detroit Pistons and Memphis Grizzlies are competing for playoff seeding in their respective conferences as they prepare for their Saturday game. Memphis recently ended a four-game losing streak with a victory against Miami, highlighted by Ja Morant`s 30 points. Morant`s points over/under for Saturday is set at 25.5, according to the latest NBA player props.
Statistical models have simulated each NBA game 10,000 times and have shown significant returns for bettors following their top NBA picks over the past six seasons. These models have identified some of the best NBA prop bets for Saturday`s games.
Jalen Duren Under 11.5 Rebounds (-110)
Jalen Duren has grabbed at least 13 rebounds in three of his last four games, but this coincided with teammate Cade Cunningham`s absence. Cunningham, who averages 6.1 rebounds per game, might return for Saturday`s game against Memphis. In their previous November matchup, Duren had only seven rebounds against Memphis.
The prediction model suggests Duren will get around 9.7 rebounds, rating this prop bet as a strong 4-star pick. Odds for this bet are at -110.
Julius Randle Over 29.5 Points/Assists/Rebounds (-110)
The Minnesota Timberwolves are on a four-game winning streak as they fight for better playoff positioning in the Western Conference. Julius Randle will play against a Philadelphia team that is on a ten-game losing streak and not in playoff contention. Randle has scored at least 25 points in three of his last four games, achieving at least 39 points + assists + rebounds in those games. The model predicts he will reach 33.8 in combined stats, making this a 4-star prop bet.
According to the model, Julius Randle often exceeds his points + assists + rebounds total when playing on the road against weaker defenses, averaging around 30.3 combined stats in such situations. The best odds for this bet are -110.
Pelle Larsson Under 9.5 Points (-105)
Pelle Larsson had a surprising run of scoring 45 points over three games, but his performance dropped to 3 points in the recent game against Memphis. The rookie shooting guard only took three shots in that game despite playing 23 minutes. He has only reached double figures in scoring in eight games this season, and Miami is expected to rely more on their key players in a crucial game against the Bucks on Saturday.
The model projects Larsson to score just 5.7 points, rating this prop as a 4-star pick. The best odds for this prop are at -105.
Tyler Herro Over 35.5 Points/Assists/Rebounds (-112)
Tyler Herro is coming off a strong performance against Memphis, scoring 35 points on efficient shooting. He also added nine rebounds and four assists, exceeding his combined stats total. Miami`s leading scorer is averaging 23.9 points, 5.6 assists, and 5.2 rebounds per game. He has surpassed 35.5 points + assists + rebounds in his last five games as he takes on a more significant role late in the season.
The model forecasts Herro to achieve 38.1 points + assists + rebounds against Milwaukee. The best odds are currently at -112.
Ivica Zubac Under 12.5 Rebounds (-114)
Ivica Zubac grabbed an impressive 20 rebounds against the Orlando Magic on Monday, but has not exceeded 13 rebounds in any other game since March 18th. He is playing against Dallas on Saturday in the second game of a back-to-back, so Dallas should be prepared for him. Zubac`s playing time might also be reduced if the Clippers secure a comfortable lead.
The model indicates that Ivica Zubac has not reached his rebounds total in 7 of his last 10 home games against teams with losing records, averaging around 11.1 rebounds per game in these matchups. The best odds are available at -114.
Looking for More NBA Picks?
These are just some of the model`s top prop picks for Saturday. For complete NBA player projections, check out additional resources.
Jasper Hawthorne