Cooper Flagg is not your typical projected No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick. Usually, players are selected first for their scoring prowess. While Flagg, the Duke standout, certainly scores his points, especially as he returns to the court for the NCAA Tournament, it`s not his primary strength. Unlike most rookies who are defensive works in progress, Flagg is arguably the most defensively refined prospect in a decade, with the exception of Victor Wembanyama, who is exceptional in every way. He enters the NBA as a relatively advanced playmaker for his position and his jump shot is rapidly improving. He even considered defying the recent trend of one-and-done players by potentially staying at Duke for another season.
However, this idea of staying in college is very unlikely to happen. Financially, it wouldn`t be a wise decision, regardless of the NIL money he could earn at Duke. Top prospects usually go one-and-done to quickly start earning rookie salaries. More importantly, they aim to start the clock towards their second, more lucrative contract, which they can sign after their third season and have it take effect after their fourth. Every year Flagg spends at Duke delays his ability to earn 25% of the salary cap. Currently, that`s over $35 million. Considering a 10% annual cap increase and the possibility of a 30% “Rose Rule” raise, his fifth-year salary could exceed $50 million. His advisors are aware of this and will almost certainly guide him towards the NBA as soon as possible.
Therefore, we can expect Flagg to be available at No. 1 in the upcoming draft. The more important question is: where should he land? He doesn`t have a choice, of course, as he`ll go to whichever team the lottery determines. But given his unconventional prospect profile, it`s reasonable to assume that Flagg wouldn`t flourish in the same environment as a typical No. 1 pick. A high-scoring prospect might thrive on a struggling team like the Wizards, scoring their way to stardom. Flagg, however, is better suited for a different situation.
Ideally, he should join a team with an established top scorer, allowing his offense to develop gradually. The team should also possess some frontcourt versatility. Flagg is primarily seen as a power forward, but his 6-foot-9 frame could potentially allow him to play small forward or even center in certain lineups later on. If a team already has established core players in those positions, it might limit his potential. Considering his already well-rounded game, it would be beneficial if he joined a winning team sooner rather than later, if possible. While it`s not essential, as most star rookies start on struggling teams to work through their initial challenges in low-pressure environments, Flagg seems ready to contribute to winning immediately.
With all this in mind, here are the best fits for Flagg in the lottery right now. We`ll focus on the top 10 picks. While Atlanta jumped from No. 11 to No. 1 last year, we want to consider teams with a higher probability of drafting Flagg rather than just listing the best non-playoff teams. So, let`s begin at No. 5.
5. Portland Trail Blazers
Current odds for No. 1 pick: 2%
The Blazers, in some ways, are the Cooper Flagg of rebuilding teams. They may not have a traditional star prospect yet, but they`ve done an excellent job accumulating young, versatile role players. Lottery teams rarely have All-Defense caliber players, but Toumani Camara is making a case. Deni Avdija contributes in various ways and is under a favorable contract for the next three years. Donovan Clingan is the long-term center solution, but won`t dominate playing time so much that Flagg won`t have opportunities at center. He wouldn`t need to play center immediately as a rookie because Deandre Ayton will be in the final year of his contract, but it`s an option to explore afterward.
The main question for Portland is who will be their primary scorer. It`s a bit complex. Anfernee Simons currently fills that role. Next year is the final year of his contract, and he`s ideally more of a secondary scorer. He might even be a trade candidate regardless.
What about Scoot Henderson? The No. 3 overall pick in 2023 is starting to find his rhythm. The incredibly athletic point guard has had nine 20-point games this season, eight of them since January. He`s starting to hit 3-pointers more consistently lately, and having a forward like Flagg who can space the floor and develop a two-man game with him would benefit both players. Henderson`s speed will draw defenders, creating more space for Flagg to operate as a roller.
Henderson isn`t a guaranteed star, and the Blazers aren`t a typical rebuilding team. They`re a team that`s mature beyond their years, much like Flagg. While there might be more upside elsewhere, there`s a certain appeal to placing him on a team full of experienced players. He could play meaningful basketball as a rookie in Portland, which wouldn`t necessarily be the case in a place like Washington.
4. Charlotte Hornets
Current odds for No. 1 pick: 14%
Several Charlotte administrations have tried to translate the region`s passion for college basketball into lasting support for the state`s only NBA team. The Bobcats once drafted two North Carolina Tar Heels in the same lottery in 2005 (Raymond Felton and Sean May). Another UNC legend, Tyler Hansbrough, ended his brief NBA career with the Hornets. There are 23 active NBA players from Duke, and three of them (Mark Williams, Seth Curry, and Wendell Moore Jr.) are currently on the Hornets` roster. It hasn`t truly clicked yet. Flagg is better than any of them. Perhaps he could be the one to change things.
The Hornets are currently a mess with the NBA`s 29th-ranked offense, but they have the pieces for rapid improvement. Brandon Miller, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, will only play 27 games this season. LaMelo Ball carries the majority of Charlotte`s offense, and he and Flagg could form a beneficial partnership. Flagg needs to manage his usage early on. Ball dominates possessions like few others in the league. Ball also plays a style that can be generously described as unstructured and hasn`t led to much winning so far. Ideally, he needs to be surrounded by veterans who can help keep him focused. Flagg is a rare rookie who fits that mold.
A Ball-Flagg-Miller trio would be the most talented core Charlotte has had since the Alonzo Mourning-Larry Johnson era, and the new Jeff Peterson-led front office has managed their rebuild reasonably well so far. They haven`t rushed things. They`ve traded veterans like Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington for valuable picks. They are positioned to have cap space in the strong free agent class of 2026. There`s potential for a quick turnaround with the right lottery pick. In their ideal scenario, that pick would be Flagg.
3. Utah Jazz
Current odds for No. 1 pick: 14%
The Jazz may not have the obvious young stars on Flagg`s timeline that the Hornets possess. They also don`t have Portland`s depth of role players, and they certainly lack the win-now potential of the top two teams on this list. However, what they have more than any other team realistically in contention for Flagg is flexibility.
Only the Thunder rival the Jazz in terms of future draft picks. Utah has enough assets to trade for practically any type of teammate Flagg might need. More importantly, the Jazz have a lead basketball executive in Danny Ainge who has built multiple championship teams. It might take some time to get going, but Flagg`s career would be in good hands in Utah. Given the limited track record of most other front offices in this lottery, that`s not guaranteed in many other places. It would essentially mirror Victor Wembanyama`s situation two years ago: a mostly clean slate with a smart front office. That has worked out very well for him so far.
What about their current core? With Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, and John Collins, the Jazz theoretically already have their three starting frontcourt spots filled. This isn`t necessarily a bad thing. They are all very different players. Markkanen is a shooter and on-ball creator. Collins is a roller and rim scorer. Kessler is a star rim protector on defense. Having these pieces in place gives the Jazz room to experiment with what type of teammates best complement Flagg. Collins, on an expiring contract next season assuming he opts into his player option, is the easiest to move if needed. With Markkanen now on a long-term extension, he could also be traded for significant value if necessary.
His rookie season would be an experiment, and it would give the Jazz time to figure out their backcourt. Keyonte George has put up numbers in a low-pressure environment. Can he become more efficient and improve his decision-making on a team with real aspirations? Can Isaiah Collier`s scoring reach the level of his playmaking? These are questions to be answered over time, but Utah`s abundance of draft picks almost makes them irrelevant. They will either have the guards they need or they can simply acquire them. Few other teams can say the same.
2. Philadelphia 76ers
Current odds for No. 1 pick: 9.0%
Be honest: your first thought might be to focus on the large contracts of Joel Embiid and Paul George, right? Ignore those for a moment. Philadelphia still has Tyrese Maxey, the best guard potentially available to Flagg as a teammate next season. He is more than capable of handling possessions early in Flagg`s career while gradually reducing his usage as Flagg develops. He`s an excellent 3-point shooter, comfortable playing off-ball, and his experience with Embiid has taught him valuable skills that would benefit Flagg. He understands how to adjust his pace to accommodate a larger ball-handler and shooter, but also how to accelerate to pressure defenses in favorable ways.
Now, let`s bring Embiid and George back into the equation. Even if their health is inconsistent, the 76ers currently have max-level players at center and small forward. They also have one at point guard, and they have not only a stellar No. 16 overall pick (and former Duke Blue Devil) Jared McCain at shooting guard, but also a breakout deadline acquisition in Quentin Grimes. If healthy, this team has everything except a power forward. There isn`t an easier lineup for Flagg to step into, and his presence could actually help keep Embiid and George healthier moving forward. Limiting Embiid to 25 minutes per night becomes much easier if Flagg is on the court during his rest periods.
Daryl Morey`s reputation as a general manager is currently lower than ever. But this is his 18th season as a lead basketball decision-maker, and it will be his first below .500. Flagg wouldn`t be stuck in a prolonged rebuild here, despite how bad this season has been. He`d be joining a team with at least one other foundational player, possibly several more, and a general manager with a history of building winning teams.
1. San Antonio Spurs
Current odds for No. 1 pick: 4.5%
I mean… who else would you expect? Wembanyama and Flagg together could be a dominant force for every team except Oklahoma City for the next decade. They are an almost perfect fit together as two big men. Wembanyama is, of course, a generational rim protector. Flagg will likely play some center in the NBA, but he`s ideally suited to cover more ground on the perimeter as a forward. He can be aggressive defensively knowing Wembanyama is behind him.
Stephon Castle is an incredibly athletic, high-IQ young guard. His potential is only limited by his inconsistent shooting. How do you maximize a guard who isn`t a strong 3-point shooter? By pairing him with big men who can shoot. Flagg and Wembanyama would help unlock Castle`s full potential. We haven`t even mentioned De`Aaron Fox, the All-Star point guard they just traded for last month. He would be the experienced leader while the young players develop.
Speaking of experience, Chris Paul is on the team this season. The Spurs should be motivated to bring him back next season. Besides the fact that he hasn`t missed a game this year, he has a remarkable track record of developing young stars. His influence is evident in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s rise to superstardom. The same is true for Devin Booker. He`s even worked with athletically gifted and versatile power forwards like Blake Griffin. Any team that drafts Flagg should send him to the Chris Paul school for young stars. The Spurs already have him.
The people who built their five championships may be getting older, but they are still involved. These are the people you want to entrust with a talent like Flagg. Assuming Wembanyama returns healthy next season, he and Flagg would be one of the most promising young frontcourts in NBA history. They would start competing for championships soon. The Spurs are the clear No. 1 choice.
Why do the other teams miss out?
We`ve covered five of the teams currently projected to pick in the top 11. What about the rest? Here`s a quick explanation of why they didn`t make the list:
- The Wizards are still too underdeveloped. There`s potential, and they are showing signs of improvement, but their guard play isn`t ready to support a prospect as promising as Flagg. Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly are progressing well, but their futures are still uncertain, and adding another similar wing might limit their development. They would adapt if they drafted him, but Washington really needs a more traditional, high-scoring No. 1 pick.
- “Too underdeveloped” doesn`t even begin to describe the Nets. They haven`t truly started their rebuild. They don`t have a Sarr or Coulibaly; they only started trading veterans last summer. The roster is essentially the remnants of their previous team with a few good additions from the front office. The team has won due to good coaching, but there aren`t established building blocks yet. Cam Thomas is a good scorer, but not someone you want dominating possessions next to Flagg. He needs someone more willing to share the ball. The New York market and future draft picks from the Knicks would help attract talent to Brooklyn, but currently, there isn`t enough there for the early stages of Flagg`s career.
- No one is quite sure what the Raptors are doing. A few years ago, they were a wing-heavy team without true stars. They dismantled that team to build, once again, a wing-heavy team without true stars. Flagg would add to their versatility, but like the Wizards, the Raptors need a ball-handling guard to run the offense. Masai Ujiri might have previously had the same reputation as Ainge and Morey. However, his recent transactions have been questionable, so until the Raptors show a clear direction, they shouldn`t be entrusted with a prospect like Flagg.
- The Pelicans already have many forwards. Herb Jones and Trey Murphy can fit with almost anyone. Zion Williamson is another issue. Could he and Flagg play together? Potentially. Flagg can defend wings and shoot, so he wouldn`t hinder Williamson, but he would miss out on ball-handling opportunities needed for his development into an All-Star. Dejounte Murray would be a suitable high-usage guard early on if healthy, but his torn Achilles could complicate things. Adding Flagg might push the Pelicans towards a rebuild, possibly even leading to a Williamson trade, but that`s too much uncertainty to consider here. This fit would be interesting but awkward. The upside would be high, but the floor, as seen with Williamson`s tenure, would be low.
- The Bulls were recently ranked as having the NBA`s worst front office. This is not an organization that should be entrusted with a talent like Flagg. He deserves better. They shouldn`t be rewarded for years of poor decisions with lottery luck. Having a star in Chicago would be great for the league, but only when the Bulls get their act together.
Jasper Hawthorne