When Tom Thibodeau took over the New York Knicks in 2020, the team had been adrift for two decades. Expectations were incredibly low; merely achieving a baseline level of competence was the primary goal. Thibodeau, who had previously won Coach of the Year without securing a top-three seed, was brought in to change the culture and establish a competitive foundation.
Just five years prior, the team`s standing was so low that earning home-court advantage in a first-round playoff series felt like an improbable achievement.
Recently, Thibodeau appeared to work miracles, guiding the Knicks to overcome multiple 20-point second-half deficits in a single series on the road against Boston. The team, seemingly built specifically to challenge the Celtics, was on track for an upset even before Jayson Tatum`s injury. Reaching the conference finals arguably surpassed expectations based on preseason projections.
However, expectations quickly shifted. Eliminating Boston created a golden opportunity, especially after the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers were also eliminated, giving the Knicks home-court advantage in the conference finals. While the Oklahoma City Thunder remained championship favorites, they were younger and less experienced. It`s fair to suggest the Knicks had perhaps their most favorable path to the Finals and a championship, one they ultimately failed to capitalize on.
The Knicks were eliminated in six games by Indiana, sending the Pacers to the Finals and leaving New York facing a complex offseason. Having spent significant assets (like Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns) on the current roster, the team features two All-NBA caliber players and several coveted role players. Yet, the article suggests Thibodeau never quite optimized this assembled talent.
An identity crisis
A major issue highlighted is an identity crisis. The Knicks relied heavily on their starting unit (Bridges, Towns, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby), which played significantly more minutes than almost any other lineup in the league during the regular season. Cracks appeared in this unit during the year and widened in the playoffs, requiring desperate changes only after losing critical home games in the conference finals.
This late adjustment felt desperate. While successful coaches often experiment with lineups in the regular season to prepare for the playoffs, Thibodeau`s notorious commitment to his starters limited this flexibility. The subsequent rotations, including giving minutes to players who were previously out of the rotation, reeked of panic, suggesting a lack of viable alternatives. Although these desperate moves weren`t disastrous, they proved insufficient.
The article argues that core playing style issues were left unaddressed. The team lost some defensive identity after Isaiah Hartenstein`s departure. The trade for Towns was theoretically meant to create a high-powered, five-out offense, but this transformation never fully materialized. Opponents exploited the lineup by placing their centers on Josh Hart, providing extra help defense near the rim knowing Hart wasn`t a high-volume shooter. A potential counter, starting Miles McBride for added shooting and defensive pressure, was barely explored.
A more creative offensive approach might have solved some issues, but much of the Knicks` offense relied heavily on Jalen Brunson`s dribbling. The team ranked low in passes per game, average player speed, and pace, leading to a suboptimal shot selection with low rates for 3-pointers and free throws. While they drove to the rim often, they were inefficient finishers.
In the past, the Knicks compensated for offensive deficiencies with elite offensive rebounding. This year, without Isaiah Hartenstein and with Mitchell Robinson injured, their rebounding wasn`t as dominant. Despite this, their talent still powered them to a top-five offense in the regular season. However, playoff opponents and coaching schemes exposed weaknesses. While Brunson`s individual brilliance often rescued them late in games, he couldn`t sustain the offense for 48 minutes. Their fourth-quarter offense was strong, but performance dropped significantly in other quarters, leading to a sense that the team lacked a consistent system to leverage its talent beyond isolating players, often resulting in excessive dribbling.
The need for elite offense was exacerbated by defensive struggles with Brunson and Towns on the court simultaneously. While partly the players` responsibility, it also falls on Thibodeau, a defensive coach, to find a suitable scheme. Towns struggles in Thibodeau`s preferred drop coverage. Attempting more switching in the playoffs against high-shooting teams like Boston and Indiana proved ineffective due to a lack of ingrained habits. The Pacers successfully dictated matchups and pace, forcing the Knicks into high-scoring contests they weren`t equipped to win defensively.
The author clarifies that not all blame lies with the coach. Brunson`s style naturally leads to a dribble-heavy offense (similar to his time with Rick Carlisle in Dallas), and Towns` defensive vulnerabilities were known upon arrival. Thibodeau`s limited bench usage was partly due to the bench quality. The current talented roster, assembled after the previous year`s team (which fit Thibodeau`s mold better but was altered by the CBA), might not have been ideally suited to the coach`s typical approach.
Who would the Knicks hire if they make coaching change?
This past season wasn`t necessarily the Knicks` only opportunity. Despite their costs, the core group can potentially remain together for several years, avoiding the second luxury tax apron next season. While Mitchell Robinson`s contract expires soon after, the team might choose to retain him regardless of future apron status. The core players are relatively young. A different outcome in a few key moments could have led to a Game 7 against Indiana. While a blown opportunity, it doesn`t have to be the only opportunity, especially with potential shifts in the Eastern Conference landscape.
However, the NBA`s modern approach values less patience. Four of the last six championship-winning head coaches were eventually fired by the teams they won with, and recent firings mid-season highlight this trend. In the era of stricter financial constraints (luxury tax aprons), changing coaches is often the most straightforward move a front office can make compared to complex roster changes via trades.
While it`s easy to suggest firing Thibodeau, finding a suitable replacement is challenging. Michael Malone is often mentioned, but he`s considered similarly old-school, and his success in Denver is tied to having Nikola Jokic. What would his offensive approach be without a generational talent?
Teams typically seek a coach with a significantly different style. Mike Budenholzer is one such candidate, known for utilizing starters less, emphasizing 3-pointers, and protecting the basket. However, his playoff history is inconsistent, and he`s coming off a poor season in Phoenix. The pool of proven, elite coaches available is small, making it uncertain that the Knicks could find someone definitively better than Thibodeau.
The league likely holds untapped coaching talent. Joe Mazzulla`s rapid ascent in Boston after an assistant left illustrates how opportunities arise. Coaching success can be circumstantial; would Malone be a top candidate without Jokic? Is there a brilliant assistant waiting for a chance, or a second-chance candidate overlooked due to past circumstances?
James Borrego is mentioned as a potential second-chance candidate; he won 43 games with the Hornets before they declined, and he was a finalist for the Cavaliers job that went to Kenny Atkinson (who later won COY). The argument is he could achieve more with the Knicks` roster.
Exploring coaching outsiders is another avenue, drawing parallels to JJ Redick`s transition, someone with proven basketball knowledge but no traditional coaching baggage. Could a transitioning older player like Chris Paul, a former client of Leon Rose, be a candidate if he were interested?
Finding proven, elite head coaches is challenging and often requires luck, as seen with the Pacers acquiring Rick Carlisle when his previous tenure ended coincidentally. Success in securing the “perfect” coach, much like winning a championship, often involves a combination of strategy and fortunate timing.
Winning itself also involves luck. The Knicks` six-game conference finals loss included several close games where different bounces or shooting percentages could have altered the outcome, sending them to the Finals. Reaching this level was almost unimaginable when Thibodeau took over. A coach capable of getting a team to the conference finals, even if not deemed sufficient to win it, is a rare commodity for the Knicks this century.
The team now faces the burden of these elevated expectations. Thibodeau undeniably lifted the Knicks from mediocrity, but the qualities needed to transition a team from bad to good may differ from those required to reach true greatness. Sometimes, a coach is a crucial stepping stone whose journey with the team concludes before the ultimate goal is reached. The Knicks must now decide if the coach who revitalized the franchise is the one who can lead them to the championship.
Jasper Hawthorne