The 2025 NBA Finals series progresses with Game 2 this Sunday evening, featuring the Oklahoma City Thunder facing off against the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers took Game 1 with a narrow 111-110 victory, staging a fourth-quarter comeback from a double-digit deficit. Tyrese Haliburton of Indiana sank the decisive shot with just 0.3 seconds left. Currently, the Pacers hold an 11-3 record over their last 14 games overall, while the Thunder boast a strong 6-1 record in their last seven home games. Given Indiana`s impressive run of eight outright upsets already in the 2025 NBA playoffs, assessing this Thunder vs. Pacers matchup for betting requires careful consideration.
Tip-off for Game 2 is set for 8 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The current odds position OKC as an 11-point favorite against the Pacers. The total points line (over/under) is at 228.5, having moved up two points since opening. Oklahoma City is also a strong favorite on the money line. Before placing any wagers on this Thunder vs. Pacers matchup, it`s recommended to review analysis from sources like the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model is designed to predict outcomes by simulating each NBA game 10,000 times. It boasts a history of generating significant returns on its high-rated NBA picks over the past several seasons. The model has been particularly successful recently, demonstrating a strong track record on its top-rated picks, including against-the-spread selections this season, indicating potential for substantial gains for those who have followed its recommendations.
Having simulated the Pacers vs. Thunder game 10,000 times, the model has now finalized its projections and betting predictions for this matchup.
Why the Thunder can cover
Oklahoma City demonstrated disruptive defense in Game 1, forcing 25 turnovers. As a favorite this season, the Thunder have a solid record against the spread, and they have also performed well against the spread following a loss. Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the cornerstone player for OKC in this crucial game. Throughout the playoffs, he has maintained averages of 30.2 points and 6.7 assists per game. In his most recent appearance, Gilgeous-Alexander delivered an impressive 38 points, five rebounds, and three assists, marking his third consecutive game scoring over 30 points. Forward Jalen Williams provides a dynamic two-way presence in the frontcourt, averaging 20.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists this postseason. Williams has consistently scored at least 17 points in his last three games.
Why the Pacers can cover
The Indiana Pacers have earned a reputation for their resilience, executing remarkable comebacks throughout this postseason, including overcoming significant deficits. Guard Tyrese Haliburton has proven exceptionally clutch in critical moments, delivering multiple game-winning shots during these playoffs, alongside a crucial game-tying basket against the New York Knicks. In Game 1, he recorded 14 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. For the playoffs overall, Haliburton averages 18.5 points per game and leads the team with 9.5 assists. Forward Pascal Siakam is a key offensive threat known for driving to the basket. This postseason, Siakam is the team`s leading scorer with 20.9 points per game and also averages 6 rebounds. His Game 1 performance included 19 points and 10 rebounds.
How to make Pacers vs. Thunder picks
The SportsLine model`s simulation of the Pacers vs. Thunder game suggests a leaning towards the Under on the total points. Furthermore, the model indicates a high probability, exceeding 60% in its simulations, for one specific side of the spread.
Jasper Hawthorne