Mon. Sep 8th, 2025

Thunder vs. Pacers Game 5: Odds and Predictions

The 2025 NBA Finals series is currently tied 2-2, with the teams alternating wins. Game 5 sees the action shift back to Oklahoma City as the Thunder host the Indiana Pacers. The Thunder secured a crucial 111-104 victory in Game 4 on Friday, bringing the series level. Oklahoma City boasts a strong home record in the 2025 NBA playoffs, standing at 9-2. In contrast, the Pacers have performed well on the road with a 7-3 record, including a win in Oklahoma City in Game 1.

Tipoff for Game 5 from the Paycom Center is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Looking at the latest betting lines, the Thunder are favored by 9.5 points. The total points over/under is set at 223.5. On the money line, Oklahoma City is listed at -380, while Indiana is at +300. For the series outcome, the Thunder are -450 favorites to win the championship, with the Pacers as +350 underdogs.

Odds Summary

Category Details
Spread Oklahoma City -9.5
Over/Under 223.5 points
Money Line Oklahoma City -380, Indiana +300

Why the Thunder Could Cover the Spread

Oklahoma City has been particularly strong at home, with a significant against-the-spread record as the home favorite. They also have a favorable record against the spread after securing a win. A key factor for the Thunder is guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to be an effective scorer, consistently finding his spots. In the NBA Finals, he`s averaging 32.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. His Game 4 performance included 35 points, three rebounds, and three steals, with a decisive 15 points in the fourth quarter.

Forward Jalen Williams provides essential secondary scoring and playmaking ability. He`s averaging 22.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists in the Finals. Williams has elevated his scoring in recent games, hitting 26 or more points in the last two matchups, including a series-high 27 points and seven rebounds in the Game 4 win.

Why the Pacers Could Cover the Spread

Indiana comes into Game 5 with a solid against-the-spread record when playing as the away underdog and after suffering a loss. Forward Pascal Siakam has been a consistent offensive force in the paint for the Pacers, leading the team in scoring (20.6 ppg) and rebounds (6.2 rpg). In Game 4, he contributed 20 points, eight rebounds, and five assists, marking his second consecutive game with 20-plus points.

Guard Tyrese Haliburton is crucial for the Pacers` offense, known for his excellent court vision and ability to create opportunities for himself and teammates. In the 2025 NBA Finals, Haliburton is averaging 17.8 points, six rebounds, and 7.5 assists. His Game 3 performance was notable, achieving a double-double with 22 points, nine rebounds, and 11 assists, including four successful three-pointers. This marked his ninth double-double of the postseason.

Game 5 is a pivotal moment in the series, with both teams looking to gain an advantage as the Finals reach their critical stage.

By Dominic Ashworth

Dominic Ashworth, 41, has made his mark in Leicester's sports media scene with his comprehensive coverage of football and horse racing. Known for his ability to spot emerging talents, Dominic spends countless hours at local sporting events, developing stories that matter to both casual fans and dedicated enthusiasts.

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