A coveted spot in the Western Conference Finals is at stake as the Denver Nuggets face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder in a decisive Game 7 of their conference semifinal series on Sunday. Denver forced this winner-take-all game with a 119-107 victory on Thursday.
The reigning NBA champion Nuggets (50-32) hold a 2-4 road record in the 2025 NBA playoffs. Conversely, the Thunder (68-14), making their first conference finals appearance since 2015-2016, boast a strong 4-1 record at home in the playoffs.
Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. According to the latest odds, the Thunder are 8.5-point favorites against the Nuggets. The total points over/under is set at 213. Oklahoma City`s money line is -342 (bet $342 to win $100), while Denver`s is +271 (bet $100 to win $271). Before placing any wagers on this matchup, it`s advisable to consult expert NBA predictions.
The SportsLine Projection Model, known for simulating every NBA game 10,000 times, has shown significant success, returning well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model has been particularly strong during the 2025 NBA playoffs, entering the second week of the conference semifinals on a 159-117 run on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It also boasts a 23-11 (68%) record on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season.
Now, after simulating the Nuggets vs. Thunder matchup 10,000 times, the model has revealed its highly anticipated NBA picks and predictions. Here are several key betting lines for Thunder vs. Nuggets:
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Oklahoma City -8.5
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 213 points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder money line: Oklahoma City -342, Nuggets +271
- Denver: The Nuggets have hit the money line in 41 of their last 66 games (+14.35 units)
- Oklahoma City: The Thunder have hit the team total over in 26 of their last 38 home games (+12.05 units)
Why the Thunder Can Cover
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been outstanding. In Thursday`s Game 6 loss in Denver, he scored 32 points, adding six assists and three rebounds. He followed up his 31 points, seven assists, six rebounds, two blocks, and two steals from a 112-105 Game 5 win. Through 10 postseason starts, he is averaging 28.4 points, 6.6 assists, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in 36.7 minutes.
Another key offensive weapon for the Thunder is forward Jalen Williams. In 10 playoff starts, he is averaging 19.2 points, 5.6 assists, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.5 steals in 35.2 minutes. He has consistently reached double-digit scoring, doing so in five of the first six games of this series. In a 113-104 overtime loss in Game 3 on May 9, he delivered a strong performance with 32 points, five assists, and three rebounds in 43 minutes.
Why the Nuggets Can Cover
Center Nikola Jokic has maintained his dominant form, recording his fourth consecutive double-double in the series. Across 13 postseason starts, he averages 26.7 points, 13 rebounds, 8.1 assists, and 2.2 steals in 40.5 minutes. He was strong in Game 6 with 29 points, 14 rebounds, eight assists, and two steals. In Game 5, he had a massive outing, putting up 44 points, 15 rebounds, five assists, and two steals.
Point guard Jamal Murray is coming off back-to-back games with over 20 points. In Game 6, he contributed 25 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. He scored 28 points, grabbed four rebounds, and dished out three assists in the Game 5 loss. In 13 playoff games, he is averaging 22.5 points, 5.5 assists, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.1 steals across 41.8 minutes.
How to Make Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks
SportsLine`s model has extensively simulated the Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 7, running the scenario 10,000 times. The projection leans towards the under on the total points, predicting 214 combined points. Furthermore, the model indicates that one specific side of the spread is projected to hit in well over 50% of the simulations.
Curious about the winning side and the recommended spread bet for Nuggets vs. Thunder? Find out by consulting the model`s detailed NBA picks, developed by a system that has generated significant returns on top-rated NBA selections.
Jasper Hawthorne