Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals in the 2025 NBA playoffs features the 4th-seeded Denver Nuggets hosting the 1st-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Denver secured a 113-104 overtime victory at home in Game 3, giving them a 2-1 lead in the series and an opportunity to gain significant control. The teams split their regular-season matchups, each winning two games.
The game is scheduled for a 3:30 p.m. ET start at Ball Arena in Denver. The Nuggets had a strong 26-15 home record during the regular season.
According to the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 6.5 points. The total points over/under is set at 227. OKC`s money line is -250 (meaning a $250 bet wins $100), while Denver is the underdog at +205. Oklahoma City is also favored at -155 to be the first team to score 10 points in the first quarter. Before making any picks for this game, consider reviewing the NBA predictions and betting insights from the SportsLine Projection Model.
Key Betting Stats:
- Oklahoma City is favored by 6 points against the spread.
- The over/under for total points is 227.
- The money line odds are Oklahoma City -250 and Denver +205.
- OKC has a 56-30-4 record against the spread this season.
- Denver`s record against the spread this season is 43-47-2.
Why the Thunder Can Cover
Oklahoma City performed strongly throughout the regular season. They hold a 23-15-2 ATS record when favored on the road and a 25-16-2 ATS record overall as the away team. A notable statistic for the Thunder is their 38-18-2 ATS performance when both teams have equal rest.
Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander serves as the primary offensive force, excelling in both scoring and playmaking. He leads the team with averages of 28 points and 6.7 assists. The 26-year-old has scored 30 or more points in four of his past five games, including 34 points and eight assists in Game 2.
Why the Nuggets Can Cover
Denver enters this game with a 15-12-1 ATS record when playing as the underdog and a 5-4-1 ATS record in the playoffs. They have also covered the spread in five of their last seven contests, including two instances in this series where they were favored by 10 or more points.
Center Nikola Jokic is crucial to Denver`s success, impacting every aspect of the game. In the 2025 NBA playoffs, he leads the team in points (24.7), rebounds (12.7), assists (8.9), steals (2), and blocks (1.1). In his most recent game, he recorded his fifth double-double of the postseason with 20 points, 16 rebounds, and six assists.
How to Make Thunder vs. Nuggets Picks
The SportsLine model has simulated the Thunder vs. Nuggets game. It projects a combined score of 218 points, suggesting the total will go Under. The model also identifies value on one side of the point spread.
Jasper Hawthorne