The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder have taken the series lead against the Denver Nuggets for the first time, now up 3-2 after securing a victory in Game 5 earlier this week. The Thunder aim to eliminate Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets from the NBA playoffs in Thursday`s Game 6. Playing on their home court, the Nuggets hope to force a decisive Game 7, which would be their second of this playoff run.
Game 5 proved to be a thrilling contest, with the Thunder once again making a strong push in the fourth quarter. The closing minutes featured a scoring duel between Nikola Jokić and MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Gilgeous-Alexander contributed 31 points, shooting 12-of-23, and was one of six Thunder players to score in double digits. Jokić delivered an outstanding performance with a game-high 44 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 assists, but the Nuggets were significantly outscored by 15 points in the final period.
A victory for the Thunder on Thursday would send them to the Western Conference Finals to face the Minnesota Timberwolves. This would mark OKC`s first trip to the conference finals since the 2016 season, led by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Should the Nuggets successfully tie the series, it would lead to a crucial Game 7 on Sunday. Denver has already won a Game 7 in these playoffs, defeating the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round.
Game 6 Details
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | Date: Thursday, May 15
Location: Ball Arena — Denver
TV channel: ESPN | Live stream: fubo
Latest Odds: Thunder -4.5, O/U 217
Series Odds: Thunder -1250, Nuggets +750
Game 6 Prediction and Best Bet
Through five games, Nikola Jokić has not recorded more than six assists against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Despite OKC`s strong defense, his potential assist numbers are lower than his regular-season average (14.8 in the series vs. 16.5 in the regular season). His actual assist average has significantly dropped from 10.2 to 5.2 per game in this series.
The analysis suggests that while Jokić is still creating opportunities, his teammates are not converting shots at their usual rate. Betting on his assists to increase might seem risky given his teammates` recent performance, but the underlying numbers on potential assists indicate room for positive regression. The betting line for his assists has also adjusted, making the “over” an appealing pick.
The Pick: Nikola Jokić Over 7.5 Assists
Jasper Hawthorne