In Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals on Sunday, the 4th-seeded Denver Nuggets will host the 1st-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Denver took a 2-1 lead in the series after a 113-104 overtime victory over the Thunder in Game 3 on their home court. This gives the Nuggets an opportunity to gain significant control of the series. The teams finished the regular season with an even 2-2 record against each other.
Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, where the Nuggets held a strong 26-15 home record during the regular season. In the latest odds, Oklahoma City is listed as a 6-point favorite. The total points over/under is set at 227.5.
For expert insights and betting advice, consider the SportsLine Projection Model. This model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has a strong track record, providing significant returns for those who follow its top-rated NBA picks over several seasons. It has been particularly successful entering the 2025 NBA playoffs conference semifinals, boasting impressive records both overall and specifically on against-the-spread picks this season.
Following its 10,000 simulations of the Thunder vs. Nuggets matchup, the model has released its betting predictions. Here are the key NBA odds and betting lines for the game:
- Spread: Oklahoma City -6
- Total points: 227.5 (Over/Under)
- Money line: Oklahoma City -224, Denver +199
- Oklahoma City ATS record: 56-30-4
- Denver ATS record: 43-47-2
Why the Thunder Can Cover
The Thunder demonstrated strong performance throughout the season. Oklahoma City holds a 23-15-2 ATS record when favored on the road and is 25-16-2 ATS overall as the visiting team. Notably, they have an impressive 38-18-2 ATS record when both teams have had the same amount of rest.
Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander serves as the primary offensive force for the Thunder, leading the team in both scoring (28 points per game) and assists (6.7 per game). The guard has scored 30 or more points in four of his last five games, including a 34-point, eight-assist performance in Game 2.
Why the Nuggets Can Cover
Denver enters this game with a 15-12-1 ATS record when listed as the underdog and is 5-4-1 against the spread during the playoffs. The Nuggets have recently been covering the spread, doing so in five of their last seven games, including two instances in this series where they were underdogs by 10 or more points.
Center Nikola Jokic is central to Denver`s success, impacting multiple facets of the game. In the 2025 NBA playoffs, Jokic leads the team across key categories: points (24.7), rebounds (12.7), assists (8.9), steals (2), and blocks (1.1). In his most recent game, he recorded 20 points, 16 rebounds, and six assists, marking his fifth double-double of the current postseason.
Based on the SportsLine model`s simulations, the projection for the total combined points is 217, leaning towards the Under. The model also identifies a specific side of the spread as offering better value.
Jasper Hawthorne