The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are aiming to complete a sweep against the 8th-seeded Memphis Grizzlies this Saturday, following an historically strong start to the 2025 NBA playoffs. OKC previously set a record with a plus-70 point differential through the first two games of the series, the second-largest in NBA history. They secured their 3-0 lead in Game 3 by mounting a comeback from a 29-point deficit, which is also the second-biggest rally in postseason history. A major factor in Oklahoma City`s Game 3 turnaround was the departure of Memphis star Ja Morant (hip) after he suffered a hard fall; Morant is listed as doubtful to play in Game 4.
Tipoff for Game 4 is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and will take place at the FedExForum in Memphis. Oklahoma City enters the game as a significant favorite, with the spread set at 15 points in their favor against the Grizzlies. The over/under for the total points scored in the game is 222.5. Before making any betting decisions on this matchup, it`s wise to consider predictions and betting advice from analytical projection models.
Grizzlies (+15) to Cover the Spread
Memphis has demonstrated increasing resilience throughout the series, as reflected in Oklahoma City`s decreasing margin of victory (from +51 in Game 1 to +19 in Game 2, and +6 in Game 3). The Grizzlies controlled most of Game 3, with Oklahoma City only taking the lead in the final 1:20. Memphis successfully covered the spread in Game 3 and has also covered in their last three home games. Scotty Pippen Jr. stepped up significantly in Game 3, scoring a postseason career-high 28 points. The Thunder have struggled to cover large road spreads this season, covering in only two of six games when favored by 13 points or more. Projections indicate a high probability that Memphis will cover the 15-point spread.
Under 222.5 Total Points
The total score has finished below the set line in every game of this series so far, by at least 8 points each time. Looking at all seven matchups between these teams in the regular season and playoffs combined, the total has gone Under in six of them. This trend is even stronger over a longer period, with the Under hitting in 11 of the last 13 games contested between the Thunder and the Grizzlies. Both teams are currently shooting below their regular-season percentages for both field goals and three-pointers, which is a common occurrence as defensive intensity increases in the postseason. Projections anticipate both teams scoring notably below their season averages, contributing to the Under hitting frequently.
Jalen Williams Under 22.5 Points
Jalen Williams averaged slightly less than the 22.5 point line during the regular season, at 21.6 points per game. Memphis possesses a strong defense, ranking in the top 10 defensively and allowing one of the lowest opponent field goal percentages in the regular season. Since his playoff debut last year, Williams has scored under 22.5 points in 10 out of 13 postseason games. His shooting efficiency is also lower when playing away from home this season, hitting 46.4% of field goal attempts on the road compared to 50.4% at home. Forecasts predict Williams will finish Game 4 with approximately 20.4 points.
Jasper Hawthorne