The fifth game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves could end the series, but the fact that the Lakers are on the verge of elimination might be surprising. The duo of LeBron James and Luka Doncic was considered a favorite in the Western Conference but is now close to a first-round exit. The Lakers are 5.5-point favorites on Wednesday. James and Doncic will be giving their all. How does this situation impact NBA player prop bets? Doncic`s total for points, rebounds, and assists is set at 47.5, while James` over/under is 42.5. Should you consider betting on them?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has a proven track record of successful predictions, providing significant returns for bettors. Expert Stephen Oh analyzed the simulation results to identify the best player prop bets for today`s games. Odds can change, so it`s advisable to act quickly.
Brandin Podziemski Prop: Over 8.5 rebounds + assists
Oh considered betting on his rebounds (Over 5.5) or assists (Over 3.5) separately, but found the combined total of 8.5 to be the most advantageous bet currently available. In Game 4, Podziemski recorded five rebounds and five assists, playing a series-high 40 minutes. Excluding Game 2 where he played only 14 minutes, he has exceeded this total in two out of three games, averaging 5.7 rebounds and 4 assists in those matches.
According to Oh, their model projects him for 5.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 33 minutes. However, given that Podziemski recently played 40 minutes and has frequently played 35+ minutes (including two games over 40 minutes) in his last six appearances, the model`s minute (and consequently, stat) projection might be conservative.
Anthony Edwards Prop: Over 2.5 Turnovers
Oh considers this bet primarily volume-based. Although Edwards has protected the ball effectively in this series, averaging only 1.5 turnovers per game, Oh anticipates that referees might make some calls favoring the Lakers, potentially leading to turnovers for Edwards. The model projects Edwards to have 2.8 turnovers. His season average was 3.1 turnovers per game, and he exceeded this threshold in 26 out of 42 road games (61.9%) during the regular season.
Oh clarifies that this bet is not a negative reflection on Edwards. On the contrary, they admire Anthony Edwards and expect him to have a strong performance. However, players with high usage rates, competing on the road against superstar opponents who often receive favorable calls, are prone to committing turnovers, particularly on drives that might otherwise result in fouls if they were playing at home.
Luka Doncic Prop: Over 6.5 Assists
Doncic has split his outcomes 50/50 regarding this assists total over the first four games of the series. However, in the Lakers` Game 2 victory in Los Angeles, he recorded nine assists, highlighting the importance of his playmaking for their win. Facing a must-win situation on Wednesday, a significant workload is expected for Doncic. LeBron James might also adopt a more aggressive scoring approach, potentially creating more assist opportunities for Doncic. After the midseason trade from the Mavericks, the 26-year-old averaged 7.5 assists over 28 games with the Lakers.
The model projects Doncic to have eight assists on Wednesday. This bet is considered valuable, especially given his performance in Dallas` playoff run last season, where he averaged 8.1 assists. Act quickly as odds may change.
Looking for More NBA Picks Tonight?
- You`ve seen the model`s key prop picks. Find more detailed NBA projections for every player prop.
- Get expert betting advice from professionals like Bruce Marshall, who has a strong track record (112-82-1, +2173) over his recent 195 NBA picks and has already posted his pick for Wednesday.
- SportsLine also features experts specializing in player and team props, including Jason La Canfora, who holds a record of 80-61 (+1222.5) over his last 141 NBA picks. See who La Canfora is picking for Wednesday, including a player prop, team prop, and an Against The Spread pick.
Jasper Hawthorne