The Golden State Warriors are just one win away from advancing past the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. Holding a 3-2 series lead, the Warriors (-5.5, 207.5 total) are set to host the Houston Rockets on Friday at 9 p.m. ET. Golden State secured two consecutive victories at home before dropping Game 5 in Houston. They aim to maintain their perfect home record this postseason to progress and face the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Jimmy Butler returned in Game 4 in Golden State after missing Game 3, scoring 27 points. The Warriors should be well-rested for Game 6, especially considering only Moses Moody played more than 25 minutes in their Game 5 loss. This rest factor could influence considerations for Golden State players in Friday`s NBA player props and same-game parlays. For instance, Stephen Curry, who nearly achieved a double-double in two of the five games this series (falling short by one assist), has odds of +750 on FanDuel Sportsbook for recording a double-double in Friday`s NBA prop bets.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has consistently delivered significant returns for $100 players on its top-rated NBA selections over the past six-plus seasons. Stephen Oh, one of the data scientists behind the model (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the simulation outcomes to pinpoint the player props offering the most value for today`s games. Note that NBA odds may shift, so acting promptly is advised for optimal value.
Stephen Curry Over 5.5 points in the first quarter (-106)
Oh anticipates a rapid start from the well-rested Warriors in this decisive home game where they can secure advancement. Success for the Warriors` offense is highly correlated with Curry`s scoring output. The model projects Curry to score 24.9 points in total on Friday. Given that he is expected to play most, if not all, of the first 12 minutes, Oh believes there is a strong likelihood of Curry starting quickly. The future Hall of Fame guard averaged 26.5 points in the first two home games of the series.
“His full game line and our full game projection is basically 25 points,” Oh stated. “I favor the Warriors` first-quarter spread and first-quarter team total because I believe Steph will rise to the occasion in this situation… or at least contribute 25% of his projected points.” FanDuel Sportsbook lists this particular wager at -106 odds.
Jimmy Butler Under 33.5 points + rebounds + assists (-114)
The model forecasts Butler to register 29.3 PRA (points + rebounds + assists) on Friday. Although he is playing, Butler may not be operating at 100% capacity after suffering a pelvic contusion from a hard fall in Game 2. After posting 27 points in Game 4, his first game back after missing Game 3, Butler`s performance in Game 5 was subdued. He shot just 2 of 10 from the field, finishing with eight points, five rebounds, and two assists across 25 minutes, well below this combined total.
Butler has gone Under his PRA total in 11 of his last 18 matchups against a top-10 ranked defense, averaging 24.2 PRA in those games. The Rockets held the No. 6 scoring defense in the league this season (109.4 ppg allowed). Butler has finished Under this combined total in four of six games against Houston across both the regular season and playoffs. The model predicts this trend will likely continue on Friday. There is also the added possibility of aggravating his injury in a game where the outcome is crucial for the Warriors` advancement hopes.
Jalen Green Over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Green recorded 11 points, eight rebounds, and two assists in Game 5, just missing this total. However, he played only 28 minutes because the Rockets held a large lead at halftime (76-49) and rested many starters in the second half. The second overall pick from the 2021 NBA Draft averaged 21 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game during the regular season and delivered an explosive 38-point performance in Game 2 of this series. While his series performance has been inconsistent, with Houston facing elimination, the model projects Green to reach a 26.1 PRA total on Friday.
Green has exceeded his total PRA in 14 of his last 25 road contests, averaging 28.0 PRA during that period. He surpassed this number in Houston`s final regular-season game played in Golden State on April 6, tallying 21 points, three rebounds, and five assists.
Jasper Hawthorne