Following a night of upsets in the NBA playoffs on Monday, focus shifts to Tuesday`s matchups. The Indiana Pacers face the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Golden State Warriors take on the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Pacers look to capitalize on their Game 1 victory, fueled by strong performances from Andrew Nembhard, Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith, and Pascal Siakam. Despite his 23 points in Game 1, Andrew Nembhard`s points prop for Tuesday is set at 12.5. Meanwhile, Buddy Hield had a standout 33-point game for the Warriors in their Game 7 win; his odds to score 20 or more points on Tuesday are +1200. This analysis explores potential player prop bets for these upcoming games.
SportsLine`s Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has a proven track record for profitable NBA picks over several seasons. Stephen Oh, a Data Scientist behind the model, analyzed its outcomes to pinpoint player props offering the best value for Tuesday`s slate. He advises paying attention to potential shifts in NBA odds.
Max Strus: Over 9.5 Points
Max Strus averaged 11 points per game in Cleveland`s previous playoff series sweep. After two consecutive poor shooting performances (a combined 3-for-15 from the field), Stephen Oh anticipates a rebound performance from the reliable shooter. Strus posted a 44.2% field goal percentage this season, his best since 2020-21, and shot 38.6% from beyond the arc. He played 32 minutes in Game 1 despite his struggles, scoring seven points on 2-of-9 shooting. Oh`s confidence in this prop is based on Strus` expected minutes, usage, consistent season averages, and Cleveland`s injury situation.
Oh notes that with Evan Mobley and De`Andre Hunter injured, and Darius Garland`s status or full playing time uncertain, Strus could see more than the nine field goal attempts projected. While Oh initially liked Strus Over 9.5 points, some betting lines have shifted to 10.5 points. The model still projects Strus to score 11.1 points, suggesting value remains even at the slightly higher line.
Anthony Edwards: Under 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)
Stephen Oh clarifies that this pick is not intended as a negative assessment of Anthony Edwards` play, despite Unders often being perceived that way. Oh suggests Edwards` increased defensive focus might reduce his offensive aggression. Edwards also took on a greater role as a facilitator in the previous series, averaging 7.8 assists per game compared to 4.6 in the regular season, and nine rebounds compared to 5.9. Over the past two seasons against Golden State, Edwards averaged only 37.3 PRA, falling below this total in five out of seven contests. This average occurred even without the additional defensive challenge posed by Jimmy Butler.
Oh explains that the 41.5 PRA line likely accounts for Edwards` season average of 38, with an adjustment for higher playoff usage. However, in the current playoffs, Edwards has emphasized rebounding and assists, which contribute less to the PRA total than points. The Under for this prop has been successful in a high percentage of Edwards` home games this season (70.7%, with a 29-12 record). While the initial line was 41.5, many betting markets have moved it to 40.5. The model projects Edwards for 35.9 PRA on Tuesday, indicating significant value remains on the Under at 40.5.
Jimmy Butler: Under 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)
Jimmy Butler`s PRA total in Game 7 was slightly over this line (20 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists), but it required him to play 45 minutes. Given Game 7 was an elimination game, this high minute count was expected. However, the 35-year-old is unlikely to play 45 minutes in a Game 1 of a new series. In his previous series against Houston, he played 42 minutes in only two of the five games he appeared in, having missed Game 3 due to a pelvic injury.
Butler`s PRA as a road underdog has gone Under this line in six of his last seven games, averaging just 20 PRA in those appearances. The model forecasts Butler will achieve a total of 29.8 PRA on Tuesday. This projection considers the Warriors` quick turnaround following their Game 7 victory on Sunday night. The line is available at -115 odds.
Jasper Hawthorne