The New York Knicks finished the regular season winless in four matchups against the Boston Celtics. Now, Boston is set to host New York for the opening game of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET. Jalen Brunson was a key player in the Knicks` recent victory over the Pistons, scoring 40 points including the game-winning 3-pointer. As teams prepare for the next round, attention turns to player performance and potential betting opportunities.
A sophisticated projection model, which has a strong track record for predicting NBA game outcomes, simulates every game thousands of times. An expert data scientist utilized the results from this model along with supporting data to pinpoint player props offering the most favorable value for tonight`s matchups.
Jrue Holiday Over 8.5 points
Jrue Holiday is reportedly cleared to play after missing previous games due to a hamstring issue. He demonstrated strong scoring in the playoff games he participated in, playing significant minutes in each contest. Holiday is expected to take on the primary defensive assignment against Jalen Brunson, a role that will ensure he spends considerable time on the court, thereby increasing his offensive chances. He averaged over 11 points per game during the season and performed even better against the Knicks specifically, consistently scoring at least nine points in recent games versus New York.
According to the analyst, Holiday`s expected minutes indicate he is central to Boston`s strategy. While other guards might have lower scoring expectations based on betting lines, Holiday`s ability to handle Brunson`s physicality makes him essential, suggesting he will play substantial minutes, likely over 30.
Nikola Jokic Over 3.5 turnovers
The projection model anticipates that the Denver Nuggets will commit a notable number of turnovers against the strong defense of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Given his high usage rate in the offense, Nikola Jokic is projected to be responsible for a significant percentage of the team`s total turnovers. Looking at recent games against the Clippers, Jokic accounted for a large share of Denver`s turnovers in the final two games of that series, supporting the assessment that betting on him exceeding 3.5 turnovers offers good value. The Thunder were league leaders this season in forcing turnovers.
The analyst commented that Oklahoma City`s defense is particularly disruptive and the Nuggets may initially struggle to adapt to the pressure, similar to how they had more turnovers early versus the Clippers before adjusting later in the series.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 points
Isaiah Hartenstein recently posted solid numbers with 11 points and 12 rebounds in 25 minutes in a playoff game. He averaged 9.0 points in that series and reached at least 11 points in two out of four games. When Hartenstein plays between 25-29 minutes, the model indicates he historically exceeds this points line in a large majority of games (around 79.4%), averaging over 11 points in such situations this season. Furthermore, he has a strong scoring average against the Nuggets specifically.
The analyst notes that the current betting line for Hartenstein`s points is favorable compared to his average performance in similar minute ranges and his historical performance against the upcoming opponent, suggesting value in taking the `Over`.
Jasper Hawthorne