Once upon a time, in the not-so-distant past of the National Hockey League, a team`s goaltending strategy was often a simple affair: find a titan, a workhorse, a singular netminder capable of carrying the lion`s share of the starts, and ride him deep into the playoffs. These were the days when a goalie could reliably claim 75% or more of his team`s total minutes in the crease, racking up wins and becoming the undisputed backbone of his club. For fantasy hockey enthusiasts, this era offered a comforting predictability: draft one of the top five or ten goalies, and you were likely set.
However, much like rotary phones giving way to smartphones, the NHL`s goaltending landscape has undergone a profound, almost tectonic shift. What was once common is now a rare anomaly, and understanding this transformation is no longer just an interesting observation – it`s an essential skill for anyone looking to excel in modern fantasy hockey. We`re witnessing the dawn of the strategic tandem, where two is often better than one, and adaptability is the name of the game.
The Fading Echoes of the Lone Wolf
Consider the recent past: from the 2009-10 season to 2016-17, before the arrival of the Vegas Golden Knights reshaped the league`s roster dynamics, the average top-12 fantasy goalie commanded a hefty 74.1% of their team`s crease time. This translated to an average of 35.2 wins and a comfortable fantasy point haul. Roughly a quarter of all NHL teams boasted a goalie who started 75% or more of their games, and over half had a netminder hitting at least 65%.
Fast forward to the post-Vegas expansion era, specifically from 2017-18 to 2024-25. The numbers tell a starkly different story. The average crease share for a top-12 fantasy goalie plummeted to 65.0%, with average wins dropping to 32.6 and fantasy points seeing a noticeable decline. Critically, the number of goalies achieving that once-common 75% threshold has become vanishingly small – only 7.9% of teams now feature such a workhorse, and just 33.3% have a goalie with at least 65% of the starts. This isn`t just a slight dip; it`s a fundamental recalibration of the position.
Today, the truly dominant, almost universally deployed goaltenders are an exclusive club, often featuring the same few names like Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy, who collectively account for a disproportionate number of these high-workload campaigns. For everyone else, the workload is distributed, strategically managed, and increasingly shared.
The Rise of the Committee: Why the Shift?
The transition away from the singular workhorse isn`t arbitrary; it`s a logical evolution driven by several factors:
- Increased Demands: The modern NHL game is faster, more skilled, and more physically taxing than ever. An 82-game schedule, coupled with relentless travel, puts immense strain on a single goaltender. Distributing starts helps manage fatigue and reduce the risk of injury.
- Advanced Analytics: Teams are increasingly leveraging data to optimize player performance. Analytics often suggest that optimal goalie performance occurs with strategic rest, rather than through sheer volume of starts. Managing a goalie`s workload can lead to better save percentages and fewer soft goals over the long haul.
- Player Management and Cap Space: It`s often more cost-effective and structurally sound to build a strong tandem than to invest heavily in one elite goalie, especially under a salary cap. This allows teams to allocate resources elsewhere while maintaining solid goaltending depth.
- Expansion`s Ripple Effect: The addition of new teams like Vegas and Seattle has dispersed talent across the league, making it harder for any single team to monopolize elite players at every position, including goaltending. This creates more opportunities for capable backups to step into significant roles.
The result? The “No. 1 goalie” has been redefined. While the mythical 75% crease share is mostly a relic, a goalie consistently hitting 65% of their team`s starts is now considered a solid top-tier option. This 65% benchmark, roughly 54 starts in an 82-game season, represents the new gold standard for reliable fantasy production from a single netminder.
Navigating the New Landscape: Fantasy Hockey Strategies
For fantasy managers, clinging to old strategies in this new environment is akin to bringing a flip phone to a cybersecurity conference – charming, perhaps, but ultimately ineffective. The new era demands a refined approach to drafting and managing your goaltenders.
Strategy 1: The “Set-and-Forget” 65%er
Identify the select few who are still projected to hit or exceed the 65% crease share threshold. These are your foundational pieces, offering stable starts, wins, and statistical contributions. Goalies like Dallas`s Jake Oettinger, the Rangers` Igor Shesterkin, or the Islanders` Ilya Sorokin often fall into this category. They might not get 75% of starts, but their significant workload on competitive teams makes them early-round targets for stability.
Strategy 2: The “Strategic Tandem Handcuff”
This is where the real nuance (and potential for irony) comes in. Why settle for one when you can have two? Some teams, by design or circumstance, run highly effective platoons where both goalies offer significant fantasy value. The Toronto Maple Leafs, for instance, have recently served as a prime example, with both Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll delivering impressive fantasy points despite neither cracking 50% of the starts individually. Drafting both goalies from such a team can provide consistent starts and insulate you against injuries or slumps affecting a single netminder.
Consider teams like the Carolina Hurricanes (Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov) or the Vancouver Canucks (Thatcher Demko and Kevin Lankinen) where both goalies on strong teams can return value. It`s a calculated gamble that often pays off, turning two mid-round picks into a reliable stream of starts.
Strategy 3: The “Sleeper/Stash” Approach
For keeper leagues or those with a keen eye for future potential, identifying young goalies in less-than-ideal tandems who could eventually seize the starting role is crucial. Prospects like San Jose`s Yaroslav Askarov or Columbus`s Jet Greaves (if the Blue Jackets improve) represent high-upside stashes. While they might split time initially, their eventual emergence could provide massive returns. Similarly, veterans in new situations, like John Gibson in Detroit, present bounce-back potential worth a late-round flyer.
Spotlight on Key Situations
The modern crease demands constant monitoring. While some goalies, like Vegas`s Adin Hill, might be poised for a higher workload in the coming season given their team`s depth, others exist in a more fluid environment. The Washington Capitals, for instance, featured an almost 50-50 split last season, with Logan Thompson emerging as the superior fantasy option. Recognizing these subtle power shifts within a tandem can be the difference between a championship season and a frustrating one.
Gone are the days of drafting one guy and forgetting about your crease until Christmas. Now, your fantasy goalie strategy might involve more intricate planning than a chess grandmaster`s opening. It requires foresight, an understanding of team dynamics, and a willingness to embrace the shared workload.
Conclusion
The NHL goaltending landscape has unequivocally transformed. The era of the singular, ironclad workhorse is largely behind us, replaced by a more nuanced approach to workload management and strategic deployment. For fantasy hockey managers, this isn`t a limitation but an invitation to adapt, to innovate, and to find value where others might only see uncertainty.
By understanding the new definition of a “No. 1” goalie, leveraging the power of strategic tandems, and keeping an eye on emerging talents, you can build a formidable goaltending corps that reflects the modern realities of the NHL. The crease is no longer a monolith; it`s a dynamic ecosystem, and those who learn to navigate its currents will find themselves at a distinct advantage.
Jasper Hawthorne 
Dominic Ashworth