As the 2024-25 international football season concludes, the focus firmly shifts towards the FIFA World Cup in 2026. With the tournament now just over a year away from its highly anticipated knockout stages, a clearer picture begins to emerge of which nations are shaping up as genuine contenders on North American soil. Ten teams have already secured their qualification spots alongside the three hosts, signaling the initial readiness of sides from Asia (Japan, South Korea, Iran, Australia, Jordan, Uzbekistan) and Oceania (New Zealand).
Assessing the current landscape reveals a hierarchy of power, influenced by recent tournament performances, qualifying campaigns, and the form of key players. While the full 48-team field is far from set, a look at the top 32 provides valuable insight into the potential dynamics of the competition.
The Elite Contenders
At the pinnacle of the rankings sit two powerhouses, arguably in a class of their own. **Spain** claims the top spot, fresh off European Championship success. Their strength lies in their exceptional control of midfield tempo, anchored by players like Pedri and Rodri, combined with the burgeoning threat of dynamic attackers such as Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. In the heat of a North American summer, their ability to dictate play could be a significant advantage.
Just behind them, in what could easily be considered a shared first place, are reigning world champions **Argentina**. The Albiceleste have navigated their qualifying campaign with impressive composure, showcasing an ability to secure results even when talisman Lionel Messi is not heavily involved. Their recent Copa America victory, built on a foundation of resolute defense, demonstrates a tournament-winning pedigree that remains very much intact.
Completing the top tier are **France** and **Brazil**. France boasts an attacking arsenal that appears to grow more formidable by the year, highlighted by players achieving Ballon d`Or consideration. Their depth of talent is undeniable, posing the question of whether manager Didier Deschamps can harness their full potential in what might be his final World Cup. Brazil, conversely, possesses an abundance of elite individual talent across the pitch but has recently struggled to cohere as a unit. The arrival of a world-class facilitator like Carlo Ancelotti is intended to provide the missing structure, but time is limited to integrate his methods.
**Portugal** rounds out the top five, having added another Nations League title to their cabinet. Their recent success against top European opposition suggests they have addressed past questions about tournament temperament. The emergence of a new generation of young stars complements veterans like Cristiano Ronaldo, potentially raising their ceiling under Roberto Martinez.
Major European Forces and Rising Stars
Further down the list are traditional European giants facing varying challenges. **England** under Thomas Tuchel appear strategically focused on preparing for the critical knockout rounds, sometimes at the expense of smooth qualifying performances. They possess immense talent, presenting “champagne problems” in squad selection, though the ideal balance and starting XI remain somewhat fluid.
**Germany** also features prominently but must address a lack of a truly prolific central striker, a recurring issue despite their technical prowess elsewhere on the pitch. The development of young players in domestic leagues could prove crucial here. **Netherlands** show potential, demonstrated by competitive performances against top teams and a strong emerging midfield, but need their attacking options to consistently deliver on the biggest stage.
From Africa, **Morocco** continues to impress following their historic 2022 run. They have maintained strong form, approaching a record-breaking winning streak. With a core of established European talent and rising prospects, they appear even stronger than before.
**Norway**, while yet to guarantee qualification through a potentially tricky group, is highlighted as a potential dark horse. The presence of two genuinely world-class players in Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard provides a foundation around which a competitive team can be built, provided they navigate the qualification hurdle.
The Host Nations: A CONCACAF Perspective
For North American hosts, the rankings present an interesting dynamic. **Mexico** sits higher at 18th, identified as the current `Kings of CONCACAF` experiencing a revival. Their strong performance in the Gold Cup and the potential benefit of fervent home crowds and a favorable draw lead to aspirations of reaching the quarterfinal stage, mirroring their previous hosting stints.
**USA**, positioned at 22nd, is notably ranked behind their southern neighbors. While acknowledged as possibly the most talented USMNT squad assembled, the analysis points to a crucial missing element: the lack of a true superstar capable of single-handedly winning knockout matches. Despite having talented players like Christian Pulisic and others expected to make “the leap” after 2022, that consistent, game-altering brilliance has yet to fully materialize, potentially imposing a “hard ceiling” on their deep tournament prospects, even as hosts. **Canada**, the third co-host at 27th, possesses key talent in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David and had a promising Copa America run, though recent form has raised questions.
Other Notable Teams in the Mix
The rankings extend to include other teams showing promise or consistency. **Japan** (15th) qualified impressively and possesses a tactically astute coach and players developing well in Europe, making a deep run feasible. **Ecuador** (16th) stands out for an astonishingly stingy defensive record in CONMEBOL qualifying, built around a solid core of players operating in top leagues. **Croatia** (17th), the grand old team, continues to defy predictions of decline, maintaining a perplexing pattern of underperforming at Euros but excelling at World Cups.
Teams like **South Korea** (19th), **Ivory Coast** (20th – facing a tough qualification path), **Colombia** (21st – inconsistent qualifying form), **Algeria** (23rd), and **Iran** (24th – tough to beat but often group-bound) fill out the next tier, each with specific strengths and challenges. Debutants like **Jordan** (29th) and **Uzbekistan** (30th) signal the increasing competitiveness from Asia, while **New Zealand** (32nd) represents Oceania but faces a difficult assessment given their less competitive qualifying environment.
Looking Ahead
These power rankings offer a snapshot approximately one year out from the business end of the tournament. Form will fluctuate, players will emerge or face injury, and qualification paths will conclude. However, the analysis highlights the current leaders in the global football hierarchy and points to the key factors – from superstar power and tactical cohesion to navigating difficult qualifying campaigns – that will likely determine who lifts the trophy in 2026. The stage is set in North America, and the contenders are beginning to show their hands.
Dominic Ashworth