As the September international break winds down, the anticipation for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to be the largest iteration of the tournament yet, is palpably building. With an expanded field of 48 teams, qualification pathways have become more diverse, and surprisingly, more competitive. Already, a significant portion of the berths have been claimed, offering an early glimpse into which nations are poised for glory and which might be facing an unexpected uphill battle. This is not merely a ranking exercise; it`s a dynamic tableau of global football, where established powerhouses vie with emerging contenders, and where even the most decorated teams can stumble.
The qualification pace has been nothing short of swift. CONMEBOL has already solidified its top six, demonstrating the enduring strength of South American football. Africa has also proudly unveiled its first qualifier, with Morocco confidently marching towards history, building on their sensational 2022 run. Yet, for every team cruising, another finds itself navigating a labyrinth of unexpected challenges and self-inflicted wounds.
The Architects of Dominance: Spain, France, and Argentina`s Unyielding Grip
At the pinnacle, some names remain consistently formidable. Spain, the reigning European champions, have gracefully dismissed any notions of vulnerability despite a somewhat undersized squad. Their opening qualifier, a commanding 3-0 lead by halftime, was less a game and more a statement of intent, proving that tactical brilliance can overcome perceived physical disparities.
France, the 2018 World Cup winners, continue to be a relentless force. Didier Deschamps’ pragmatic yet effective system keeps unearthing new talent, perfectly complementing their existing galaxy of stars. The emergence of players like Michael Olise in a crucial attacking role highlights a squad depth that allows them the luxury of deploying Ousmane Dembele, Hugo Ekitike, and Maghnes Akliouche from the bench, while Marcus Thuram watches from the sidelines. This is a team that simply does not run out of options.
Meanwhile, Argentina, having long secured their CONMEBOL dominance, showed no signs of relenting. Their 3-0 victory over Venezuela served as a poignant backdrop for what many expect to be Lionel Messi’s final official national team appearance on Argentine soil. His brace was a reminder of his enduring genius. While doubts persist about his participation in 2026, the slower pace of international football suggests he could still be a decisive factor, a graceful maestro orchestrating from the heart of the game. For now, Argentina’s legacy, much like Messi`s, appears to be in safe hands.
Beyond these three, Brazil, under the potential tutelage of Carlo Ancelotti, displayed a newfound freedom in their play, achieving a 3-0 win over Chile even without household names like Vinicius Junior and Neymar. It suggests a tactical flexibility and a wealth of talent that extends far beyond their primary stars. Portugal, similarly, possesses a dizzying array of talent, with the likes of Vitinha and Joao Neves forming a formidable midfield duo. While Cristiano Ronaldo remains a figure of debate for a World Cup campaign, his uncanny ability to score against perceived “lesser” opponents continues to serve them well. And England, despite an `eyesore` performance against Andorra, carries the weight of a Champions League-winning coach in Thomas Tuchel, whose long-term strategy will likely prioritize peaking in the summer of 2026.
The Unexpected Climbers and the Stealthy Strikers: Japan`s Ascent and Morocco`s March
While the usual suspects hold court, the journey to 2026 is equally about those who defy expectations. Morocco stands out, not just as the first African team to qualify, but as a squad building on a semi-final run in 2022. They`ve retained their core, seamlessly integrating fresh talent like Brahim Diaz, who boasts an impressive nine goals in his first 12 internationals. The Atlas Lions are on the verge of breaking Spain`s record for international wins – a testament to their unwavering form and tactical discipline.
Perhaps the most intriguing narrative emerging is that of Japan. Despite not having played a competitive game recently, their stock has soared. European football circles are abuzz with the quality of the Samurai Blue. Ritsu Doan`s astute move to Eintracht Frankfurt has paid dividends, while players excelling in challenging leagues, such as Takumi Iwata and Kyogo Furuhashi from Birmingham City, find it difficult even to earn a spot in Hajime Moriyasu`s deep squad. It’s a bold call, but Japan, with their technical prowess, tactical intelligence, and a squad brimming with European experience, are rapidly shaping up as genuine dark horses for 2026.
The Anomaly of Adversity: Germany`s Rare Stumble and Italy`s Qualification Quandary
Even football`s giants are not immune to setbacks. Germany, a nation synonymous with World Cup success, suffered a truly remarkable defeat – their first-ever away loss in 53 World Cup qualifiers. Slovakia`s thoroughly deserved 2-0 victory has unexpectedly complicated what was perceived as a navigable group. While Julian Nagelsmann`s side is likely to qualify, this blip has introduced a measure of difficulty and, dare we say, a touch of self-doubt into their campaign.
Similarly, the specter of missing a third consecutive World Cup looms for Italy. Gennaro Gattuso`s tenure began with a comfortable 5-0 win over Estonia, but the slow start to that game and suboptimal results elsewhere in their group mean the Azzurri risk being cut adrift. Every match is now a high-stakes affair, placing immense pressure on a squad that still seems to be finding its identity. It`s a stark reminder that past glories guarantee nothing in the relentless world of international football.
The North American Dilemma: USMNT in Troubled Waters, Canada`s Quiet Rise
For the co-hosts, the picture is a study in contrasts. While Canada has quietly impressed, securing their first triumph on European soil since 2011 with a 3-0 win over Romania, the USMNT finds itself in a surprisingly precarious position. Mauricio Pochettino`s assertion that the USA had the better of South Korea in a recent friendly rings hollow when one considers it was a match they were “chasing for 72 minutes” – a rather specific metric for success.
The issues appear systemic. Too many positions remain unsettled: who is the primary goalkeeper? Who leads the line as the No.9? Tyler Adams and Chris Richards, two of the few players consistently exposed to top-tier opposition, seem to lack reliable partners. And the tactical decision to have Christian Pulisic, arguably their most impactful attacker, still taking corners, continues to baffle observers. The talent profile, which once promised so much for 2022, now feels less certain. While a passionate home crowd could certainly inspire a deep run in 2026, it increasingly feels like a dream scenario rather than a realistic outcome given the current trajectory. The pathway to consistently replenish top-tier talent, a hallmark of high-functioning national setups, appears to be less defined for the USMNT, leaving them in a state of unsettling uncertainty.
The Gritty Underdogs and Regional Prowess
Beyond the headlines, other nations are making their mark. Uruguay, under Marcelo Bielsa, has formalized their spot in North America, boasting a formidable midfield trio and a sturdy defense. Paraguay is set to return to the World Cup for the first time since 2010, an achievement built on an attritional, organized style of play, characterized by tenacious tackling. Colombia, after a lengthy winless run, is also bound for the tournament, still relying on the evergreen James Rodriguez alongside emerging talents like Luis Diaz.
In Africa, qualification remains an “unreasonably difficult” gauntlet. Ivory Coast, despite an almost perfect record of six wins and a draw with zero goals conceded in seven games, is still locked in a fierce battle for separation. Algeria, with the emergence of Mohamed Amoura adding youthful verve to a veteran attack, is also firmly on track. These teams underscore the sheer depth and challenge of African football, where every point is hard-earned.
The journey to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is already proving to be a compelling narrative of ambition, performance, and the occasional dose of drama. From the unwavering dominance of the traditional giants to the surprising ascent of dark horses and the unexpected stumbles of former powerhouses, the global football landscape is perpetually shifting. The expanded format promises more stories, more heroes, and undoubtedly, more moments of breathtaking football as nations around the world vie for their place on the grandest stage.
Dominic Ashworth