Consider the recent case of Mike Brown. In the 2022-23 season, he led the Sacramento Kings to a remarkable 48 wins, a significant leap for a franchise mired in a two-decade playoff drought. The performance was deemed so extraordinary that he secured a unanimous Coach of the Year selection. Fast forward just one year: the 2023-24 Kings, with a nearly identical roster and a commendable 46 wins, saw Brown receive not a single vote. The performance was, for all intents and purposes, consistent, yet the perception, and thus the award, shifted dramatically. Why? The answer lies in the shifting sands of preseason expectations.
The Unspoken Criterion: Performance Relative to Expectation
The NBA Coach of the Year isn`t a lifetime achievement award. It`s a snapshot, a commendation for a season`s most compelling narrative of unexpected success. This is precisely why a coaching titan like Erik Spoelstra, architect of multiple championships and perennial playoff contenders with the Miami Heat, has never won the award. His teams are consistently excellent, and thus, that excellence is largely expected.
Instead, the award champions the “overachiever.” Recent history underscores this principle with striking clarity. Winners consistently surpass their preseason Vegas win totals by a substantial margin, often by 10 games or more. Take Kenny Atkinson, whose Cavaliers won 64 games against a preseason projection of 48.5, or Mark Daigneault, whose Thunder blew past their 44.5-win projection to secure 57 victories. These coaches didn`t just lead good teams; they led teams that were dramatically better than anyone predicted.
The “Top Seed, But Make It a Surprise” Imperative
While overachievement is key, simply winning more games isn`t enough. The team must also ascend to a meaningful position in the standings. Since 2010, every Coach of the Year winner has guided their team to at least a top-four seed in their conference, with a significant majority—ten out of the last fourteen—leading their teams to the coveted No. 1 seed. However, this isn`t a reward for the *best* team, but rather for the team that *surprisingly* reached that elite status.
This dynamic creates a specific kind of candidate profile. A team projected for a middling playoff spot that suddenly secures a top-two seed becomes an instant favorite. Their unexpected dominance creates the perfect narrative arc for voters.
Avoiding the Spotlight: MVP Overlap and Repeat Winners
The award also carries an implicit understanding: voters prefer to spread the love. If a team boasts a leading MVP candidate, their coach often gets overlooked. The rationale is simple: the player is likely to absorb much of the credit for the team`s success. Instances of a Coach of the Year and MVP from the same team are exceedingly rare, happening only twice since 2010. This makes coaches of superstars like Nikola Jokić or Giannis Antetokounmpo less likely to win, regardless of their team`s stellar record.
Furthermore, the award rarely repeats. The narrative of “who did the most with the least” or “who surprised us the most” is inherently difficult to sustain year after year. Once a team establishes itself as a contender, its high performance becomes the new expectation, making a subsequent Coach of the Year win an uphill battle.
The Ideal Candidate: Navigating the Sweet Spot
So, where does one find the ideal Coach of the Year candidate? They reside in a fascinating “sweet spot” between two extremes. A team cannot be “too good” from the outset; their excellence is already priced in, leaving little room for a narrative of surprise. Conversely, a team cannot be “too bad”; turning a 20-win roster into a 35-win team, while commendable, rarely garners enough attention for the top honor, as it typically doesn`t result in a top-four seed.
The prime candidates are often found among teams with moderate expectations — perhaps projected for the play-in tournament or a lower playoff seed — who possess the underlying talent or tactical flexibility to make a dramatic leap into the conference`s elite. The Eastern Conference, with its slightly less consolidated top tier compared to the West, often presents more opportunities for such dramatic surges.
Consider a coach who takes a defensively sound but offensively challenged team and unlocks a new level of scoring, or one who navigates significant injuries early in the season to keep his team afloat, only to surge when key players return. These are the narratives that resonate with voters. A coach like Jamahl Mosley with Orlando, or Nick Nurse with a reconfigured Philadelphia team, fit this mold perfectly, offering the potential for significant overperformance against a backdrop of manageable expectations.
The Intrigue of the Long Shots
Even among long shots, the underlying principles apply. Coaches like Rick Carlisle in Indiana, with a young, developing roster and a franchise ethos that shuns tanking, could create a compelling story if the Pacers defy expectations and push for a top-six seed. Similarly, a future Hall of Famer like Steve Kerr, if his veteran Warriors manage to stay healthy and perform well beyond their aging roster`s projections, could capture a “last dance” narrative that appeals to voters, especially given his long odds.