The NBA`s trade landscape is a fascinating dichotomy, often swinging between seismic, league-altering blockbusters and the more subtle, yet equally strategic, maneuvers that unfold with almost prescient predictability. While a truly shocking trade can send ripples through the sports world, today`s focus is on the latter – the players whose names seem to be etched onto the rumor mill months in advance, often for reasons far more complex than their on-court performance alone.
Before the February 5, 2026 trade deadline descends upon us, teams are meticulously analyzing rosters, balance sheets, and future prospects. These aren`t always about acquiring a superstar; more frequently, they involve “rank-and-file” players caught in the crosscurrents of team ambitions, luxury tax implications, and the ever-present quest for the perfect roster fit. Let`s delve into the individuals who are currently under the microscope, likely preparing for a change of scenery.
Jonathan Kuminga: The Warriors` Perpetual Trade Chip?
Jonathan Kuminga – Golden State Warriors
The Situation: Kuminga`s tenure with the Golden State Warriors has been a consistent subject of trade speculation, almost as if he arrived with a “for trade” sticker. His contractual status – or lack thereof – is the primary driver here. With ongoing discussions about his long-term fit alongside veterans like Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler, and reports of the Warriors` desire for him to waive certain no-trade clauses, the writing on the wall seems less like subtle graffiti and more like a billboard.
The Implication: If Kuminga opts for a one-year qualifying offer, he gains trade veto power, complicating future moves. However, unrestricted free agency isn`t an ideal outcome for either side. The Warriors risk losing him for nothing, while Kuminga would navigate a cap space market that hasn`t always been robust. A contract compromise seems logical, but it likely serves as a prelude to a mid-season trade, allowing Golden State to leverage potential suitors like the Suns and Kings against each other. It’s a familiar playbook, reminiscent of D`Angelo Russell`s brief, albeit strategic, stopover.
Anfernee Simons: Boston`s Financial Chess Piece
Anfernee Simons – Boston Celtics
The Situation: The Celtics` acquisition of Anfernee Simons in the Jrue Holiday swap was a masterclass in financial engineering. Not only did it save millions on their 2025-26 payroll, addressing looming second-apron issues, but it also shed Holiday`s more expensive long-term contract for Simons` expiring deal. Yet, Boston`s financial ambitions don`t stop there.
The Implication: The Celtics are reportedly within $12 million of the luxury tax line. Ducking the tax this year and next would completely reset their repeater tax clock – an enormous advantage given the NBA`s increasingly punitive financial penalties. While other avenues exist, such as trading role players or even revisiting blockbuster talks for Jaylen Brown or Derrick White, moving Simons is a key cost-cutting measure. Despite his youth and talent, with guards like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard already established, Simons` long-term fit for “starter money” becomes questionable. If Boston can offload his contract without taking on equivalent long-term salary, consider it a highly probable outcome.
Kyle Kuzma: The Bucks` Desperation Play
Kyle Kuzma – Milwaukee Bucks
The Situation: The Milwaukee Bucks are operating under a palpable sense of urgency. Waiving Damian Lillard and incurring a staggering $100 million in dead money wasn`t a casual decision; it was a desperate gamble to retain Giannis Antetokounmpo. Myles Turner`s arrival is a solid move, but it doesn`t plug the offensive void left by Lillard. The Bucks, even in a weaker Eastern Conference, require more firepower to genuinely contend.
The Implication: With Giannis effectively untouchable and newly acquired Turner off-limits, Bobby Portis remains a fan-favorite with reasonable value. This leaves Kyle Kuzma and his $22.4 million salary as the primary significant trade asset. If the Bucks are to make a meaningful roster upgrade, Kuzma`s contract is the logical starting point. While his individual performance needs a rebound to attract widespread player interest, coupling his salary with a coveted 2031 or 2032 first-round pick – a significant risk given the uncertainty around Antetokounmpo`s long-term future – could secure the necessary upgrade. It`s a high-stakes poker game, where Kuzma is essentially the “ante” for Milwaukee`s championship aspirations.
Maxi Kleber: The Lakers` Efficiency Exercise
Maxi Kleber – Los Angeles Lakers
The Situation: The Lakers are treading a fine line, balancing their immediate championship window with LeBron James and Luka Dončić (if the reporting holds true) against their long-term goal of pursuing All-Stars in upcoming offseasons. This dictates a strategic approach to cap flexibility, yet compels them to seek immediate, albeit fringe, reinforcements.
The Implication: An $11 million contract for Maxi Kleber, an aging player with a history of injuries who likely won`t see extensive use, becomes an inefficient allocation of resources for a team aiming for contention. While Kleber offers value when healthy, relying on him for an 82-game season and a deep playoff run is optimistic at best. The Lakers frequently use the early season to assess their roster before making December or January trades. Kleber`s contract is a prime candidate to be their primary salary-matching tool for acquiring a perimeter defender, shooter, or a more reliable backup center. It’s less about Kleber being a “bad” player and more about him being a square peg in a round financial hole for a contending team.
Terry Rozier: Miami`s “Limbo” Asset
Terry Rozier – Miami Heat
The Situation: The Miami Heat find themselves in a peculiar state of organizational “limbo.” Having traded Jimmy Butler without a clear successor plan, they are not inclined to tank but are aggressively seeking even marginal improvements. Rozier`s initial acquisition via a first-round pick underscores this ambition.
The Implication: Rozier is on an expiring contract and is coming off a career-low performance. With Tyler Herro`s eventual return, Rozier`s role in the rotation becomes increasingly tenuous. While letting his contract expire could free up 2026 cap space, Andrew Wiggins` player option complicates that picture, pushing Miami`s true cap-saving summer to 2027. The Heat are unlikely to comfortably tread water for two years. Therefore, using Rozier`s cap figure to acquire a more impactful player whose contract extends a year longer is a logical, albeit potentially draft-compensation-intensive, maneuver. It`s Miami`s pragmatic solution to improve without significant current assets.
The Art of the Tax Dump: Minor Moves, Major Financial Relief
Beyond the higher-profile names, a significant portion of the trade market revolves around teams strategically shedding salary to duck under the NBA`s luxury tax threshold. It’s a delicate dance where teams aim to reset their repeater tax clock, saving millions in future penalties, especially for those not quite in championship contention.
- Phoenix Suns: A mere $300,000 above the line, the Suns are almost certainly making a move. Nick Richards ($5 million salary) is a primary candidate, now essentially the fourth center on the depth chart. It`s less about his skill and more about his presence on the books.
- Denver Nuggets: Similarly close at $400,000 above, the Nuggets are contenders, but looming massive tax bills make ducking attractive. Dumping Zeke Nnaji is complicated by his long-term deal, so expect them to look at young, rotational players like Jalen Pickett or Hunter Tyson who might be replaced by minimum contracts.
- Toronto Raptors: Around $3 million over, paying the tax with this roster makes little sense. An RJ Barrett trade for savings is ideal, but unlikely at this point. Prospects like Ochai Agbaji or Ka`Kobe Walter, who are promising but costly for their current team construction, are more probable candidates for a move.
- Orlando Magic: Just under $6 million above the line, the Magic have extraneous salary in Jett Howard ($5.5 million) who isn`t being utilized. With center depth, a trade of Goga Bitadze ($8.3 million) when Mo Wagner returns is also plausible. Delaying the repeater clock before Paolo Banchero`s max extension kicks in is a wise long-term financial strategy.
In essence, hovering just above the tax line is often financially unsound. Teams either commit fully to contention and embrace the exorbitant tax bills, or they strategically shed salary to gain financial breathing room. The historical irony of the 2021 Bucks ducking the tax before winning a championship (only to re-enter it due to a contract incentive) highlights the complexities. While not always easy, these “tax dumps” are a regular, if less glamorous, feature of the NBA trade landscape, ensuring that even minor roster adjustments can have significant financial and strategic ramifications.
Disclaimer: This article provides analysis and predictions based on current NBA reporting and financial contexts. The dynamic nature of professional sports means actual outcomes may vary.
Jasper Hawthorne