As the crisp autumn air signals the return of NHL hockey, fans eagerly anticipate another season of spectacular goals, highlight-reel saves, and unexpected heroes. But amidst the optimism, a subtle yet powerful force looms over certain players: the dreaded “regression to the mean.” It`s not a judgment of character, nor a prediction of failure, but rather a cold, statistical reality check. Some players, after truly exceptional campaigns, are simply due for a return to their more typical performance levels. Think of it as gravity for statistics – what goes up, must eventually come down, at least a little.
The Science of the Statistical Dip
What exactly triggers this statistical rebalancing act? It’s rarely a single factor but a confluence of elements that create an unsustainable peak. The most prominent culprit is often an abnormally high shooting percentage. While skill undeniably plays a role, even the most prolific scorers rarely maintain conversion rates significantly above their career averages for extended periods. When a player suddenly doubles their previous best goal total on a relatively similar shot volume, odds are they`ve enjoyed a generous dose of puck luck – a bounce here, a deflection there, a few more goalies caught flat-footed.
Other significant contributors include:
- Role Changes & Team Dynamics: A promotion to a top line or a thriving power-play unit can artificially inflate numbers. If that role diminishes, or key linemates depart, so too can the production. Hockey is a team sport, and individual glory often rides on the shoulders of surrounding talent.
- Elevated Matchups: When a player becomes a known scoring threat, opposing teams adjust. Tougher defensive assignments from elite shutdown pairings mean less time and space, inevitably impacting offensive output. The element of surprise is a powerful, yet fleeting, advantage.
- Age & Health: “Father Time” remains undefeated. As players enter their mid-30s, maintaining peak physical conditioning and avoiding injury becomes increasingly challenging. An uncharacteristically healthy season for an injury-prone veteran often serves as an outlier, a pleasant but unsustainable reprieve.
- Unsustainable Power Play Production: A power play unit firing at an astronomical success rate, often due to specific personnel or tactical advantages, is difficult to maintain year over year. Opponents adapt, and even the most potent units experience ebbs and flows.
With these analytical lenses in place, let`s examine some of the NHL`s brightest stars from the 2024-25 season who might find themselves battling the statistical tide in 2025-26.
Morgan Geekie – LW, Boston Bruins
Morgan Geekie`s 2024-25 season was, to put it mildly, an anomaly. Before last year, his career-high shooting percentage hovered around 13%. Then, like a bolt from the blue, he soared to a staggering 22%, nearly doubling his previous best goal total to an impressive 33. While playing alongside David Pastrnak on Boston’s top line certainly helps, sustaining such an elevated shooting clip is statistically improbable. His offensive zone starts also saw a significant bump from 12.1% to 19.1%. Expect Geekie to remain a valuable contributor, but a more realistic projection places him in the 22-26 goal range. The top line comes with heightened scrutiny and tougher matchups, leaving less room for statistical magic. It’s a harsh truth, but even the best streaks eventually cool off.
Mark Scheifele – C, Winnipeg Jets
Mark Scheifele’s 2024-25 campaign was nothing short of spectacular, with 39 goals and 87 points. However, a closer look reveals a familiar pattern in his peak scoring years: an elevated shooting percentage around 20%, noticeably higher than his career average of 17%. The loss of Nikolaj Ehlers, a key component of the Jets` power play, is a significant blow. That unit, which led the NHL with a 29% success rate, is unlikely to replicate such efficiency without Ehlers` presence. Scheifele notched a career-high 25 power-play points last season, a figure difficult to maintain in a less optimized setup. While Scheifele will still be a premier center, a regression to around 30 goals and 77 points seems a sensible expectation. Still elite, but perhaps a few steps shy of last year`s career-best numbers, reminding us that even the best systems require perfect synergy.
Aliaksei Protas – LW, Washington Capitals
Aliaksei Protas exploded onto the scene last season, more than doubling his previous point total and rocketing from a career-high of six goals to an astounding 30. His shooting percentage mirrored this surge, jumping from 8.8% to 21.1%. To put that into perspective, even his legendary teammate Alex Ovechkin, arguably the greatest pure goal scorer ever, “only” shot 18.6% last year. While Protas undeniably showcased improved skill, sustaining such a conversion rate is a statistical tightrope walk he`s unlikely to repeat. According to MoneyPuck, he scored 8.3 goals above expected. Without significant power-play opportunities (Ovechkin`s undisputed domain, where Protas had zero PP goals), a more realistic goal output for the skilled power forward would be closer to 20. Teams are now aware of his offensive capabilities, ensuring tougher defensive matchups and less element of surprise. The NHL is a league where secrets don`t keep.
Brandon Hagel – LW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Brandon Hagel`s 90-point season certainly turned heads, solidifying his status as a premier two-way forward. His shooting percentage of 15.4% was relatively sustainable, but his seven shorthanded points last season (nearly half his career total) represent a clear outlier. While he remains one of the league`s most dangerous penalty killers, relying on such high-octane offensive production while a man down is a risky bet. Slated for the second line alongside Anthony Cirelli, Hagel remains an elite talent. However, without consistent ice time with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, a slight dip in overall offensive output, perhaps settling into a very respectable 75-80 point range, should be anticipated. It’s a testament to his skill that even with a projected 15% drop, he`s still an exceptional player – a very good problem to have.
Mark Stone – RW, Vegas Golden Knights
Mark Stone, a universally acknowledged two-way force, faces a few uphill battles this season. First, his health. Playing more than 60 games has been a rare occurrence in his last decade, and while last season saw him hit 66 games and 67 points, relying on sustained health for a 33-year-old with a history of back injuries is, frankly, wishful thinking. The addition of Mitch Marner to the Golden Knights` roster also means Stone will likely shift off Jack Eichel`s wing, diminishing his even-strength offensive opportunities. While he should retain his top power-play spot, the combination of age, injury history, and a decreased role on the second line (the drop from Eichel to William Karlsson is notable) points towards a tough road to replicating last season`s point total. If he defies all odds and plays a full 82 games, a 68-point projection might still hold, but that`s a big “if” – one that even the most optimistic gambler might hesitate on.
Matt Duchene – C, Dallas Stars
Matt Duchene’s 82-point season was a revelation, but his projected role as the third-line center for the Dallas Stars immediately raises a red flag. It’s a rare feat for a third-line pivot to hit point-per-game territory. While he’ll likely maintain power-play duties, playing behind offensive juggernauts like Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston will naturally limit his overall ice time and scoring chances. Furthermore, his 19.7% shooting percentage last season was the second-highest of his career, well above his 13.6% average. Combined with the natural age curve that sees production decline for most players in their mid-30s (unless you`re named Crosby or Ovechkin, apparently), a significant drop of over 20% from last season`s numbers is a reasonable expectation. He`ll still be an exceptionally talented bottom-six player, but matching last year`s outburst seems a monumental task, proving that even pure skill has its limits when roles and years begin to accumulate.
The Enduring Appeal of the Unexpected
Understanding the concept of regression isn`t about being pessimistic; it`s about being realistic. While these players are undeniably skilled and will continue to be impactful, anticipating a dip in their individual statistical output allows for a more nuanced appreciation of the game. It also reminds us that hockey, like all sports, is dynamic. New stars will emerge, and others will defy these statistical gravities, adding another layer of intrigue to the season ahead. So, as the puck drops on the 2025-26 NHL season, keep these statistical insights in mind – they might just give you an edge in your fantasy league, or at the very least, a deeper understanding of the beautiful, unpredictable game of hockey.
Jasper Hawthorne 
Dominic Ashworth