Barely has the glitter settled on the 2024-25 Ballon d`Or trophy – an award, by the way, that provoked quite the stir in its final moments – and yet, the football world, in its glorious, relentless cycle, has already shifted focus. The 2026 race is not just open; it`s already a full-throttle sprint, even if most contenders have barely dusted off their boots for the current season. This isn`t merely about who might win; it`s a testament to the insatiable hunger for individual glory that pulses beneath the surface of team sport.
The annual Ballon d`Or treadmill never truly stops. With a World Cup looming on the horizon, the stakes for the 2025-26 season are amplified, transforming every early-season kick into a potential building block for a legendary campaign. While the “sample size” of data is admittedly minuscule, amounting to little more than a few hundred minutes for even the most active participants, the early indicators are already sparking heated debates and speculative whispers across the global football fraternity.
The Heir Apparents: Mbappe and Haaland Lead the Charge
Unsurprisingly, the narrative often begins and ends with two titans of the modern game: Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland. These are the players destined to redefine football`s highest individual honor, much like the legendary rivalry that preceded them.
Kylian Mbappe, now donning the illustrious white of Real Madrid, has burst from the starting blocks with the velocity of a cheetah. His early season metrics are nothing short of phenomenal. Few players across Europe`s top leagues and the Champions League can rival his 6.86 shots per 90 minutes. Crucially, his shot selection isn`t just about volume; it`s about discerning quality. Add to this his status as a leading chance creator, and his combined non-penalty expected goals and expected assists (npxG+xA) per 90 minutes clock in at an outstanding 0.96. Madrid, under the meticulous guidance of Xabi Alonso, appears to be shaping their attacking machinery around Mbappe`s unique talents, setting the stage for a truly remarkable season. Penalties may have swollen his early goal tally, but the underlying data promises a torrent of goals from open play.
Not far behind, indeed, perhaps even a hair`s breadth ahead in raw statistical output, is Erling Haaland of Manchester City. Pep Guardiola, ever the innovator, has seemingly recalibrated City`s attacking philosophy to maximize Haaland`s lethal presence. The mantra appears to be: if Haaland isn`t taking the shot, it`s probably a wasted opportunity. This singular focus has yielded a frankly ludicrous 1.52 npxG per 90 minutes in the early stages, an astonishing figure even for a striker of his caliber. He`s been consistently underperforming this metric with his actual goals, a terrifying prospect for opposition defenses, suggesting an even more explosive period is imminent. His five goals in four games, including a crucial strike against Arsenal, underscore his relentless scoring form. The only shadow of doubt hanging over his candidacy remains Norway`s potential impact on the global stage – a World Cup performance could be the missing piece of his individual puzzle.
The Seasoned Strikers: Kane`s Quest and Salah`s Legacy
The Ballon d`Or race isn`t solely a battle of the young guard. Veterans, refined by years of elite competition, also stake their claim, albeit with different narratives.
Harry Kane, at 32, seems to be enjoying a career renaissance, or perhaps just a continuation of his peak form. Currently leading Europe`s top five leagues with eight goals (three from the spot) and three assists, he remains a pure final-third presence of unparalleled effectiveness for Bayern Munich. His path to individual glory, however, appears deeply intertwined with his team`s collective success. A Champions League triumph would be monumental, but an impactful run with England at the World Cup could solidify his claim. For Kane, the dream of individual accolades often feels like a mirror to the elusive team trophies he so craves.
Then there`s Mohamed Salah, a player who, by many accounts, was among the very best in men`s football last season. The 33-year-old Egyptian, fresh off a lucrative new contract, faces a demanding season with Liverpool, an Africa Cup of Nations, and a probable World Cup appearance. While he has earned the right to ease into the campaign, there are subtle statistical shifts that raise a cautious eyebrow. His npxG has dipped from 0.49 to 0.09 per 90 minutes in the Premier League, and his xA from 0.24 to 0.14. While some argue this reflects an improved supporting cast, the discerning eye can`t help but wonder if these are the nascent signs of a slight, almost imperceptible, decline. In football, labeling a legendary player`s twilight is a risky business, but the numbers offer a quiet suggestion.
The Midfield Maestros and Winger Wizards
Beyond the pure goal scorers, the Ballon d`Or sometimes rewards the architects, the innovators, and the dazzling wingers who reshape games.
Pedri of Barcelona stands as the undisputed finest central midfielder in the game. His performance against Newcastle in the Champions League, where he out-dueled every player on the pitch, showcased a remarkable evolution from a possession maestro to a dominant force. He leads Europe`s top five leagues in possession recoveries, proving that his impact transcends mere passing statistics. The ongoing debate – can a player of Pedri`s quality, who doesn`t consistently score, win the Ballon d`Or? – is a fascinating one, and this season could provide a definitive answer.
Barcelona also boasts two exciting wing talents. Lamine Yamal, the prodigious 18-year-old, is on a trajectory that suggests future Ballon d`Or glory. In his second full season, he`s already deciding major games with moments of brilliance, bagging two goals and two assists in three early matches. However, a closer look reveals a characteristic youthful exuberance: his average of 6.66 shots per 90 minutes is high, but his xG per shot stands at a rather inefficient 0.08. If he refines his shot selection, waiting for prime opportunities, his case for individual honors will become exponentially stronger. Meanwhile, Raphinha continues to impress, with three assists and two goals in five La Liga outings. His ability to perform effectively from either flank adds another dimension to Barcelona`s attack, though the unspoken risk of their two wing-wonders splitting votes remains a possibility.
From Bayern Munich, Michael Olise appears to be making the leap. After a stellar previous season with 27 combined goals and assists in the Bundesliga, he`s picked up exactly where he left off. His npxG+xA of 1.1 per 90 minutes is astounding. For Olise, the challenge, like many Bundesliga and Ligue 1 stars, is to translate this domestic dominance into decisive European performances or, potentially, a significant role for France at the World Cup. Didier Deschamps` trust in him in a central attacking role for the national team bodes well.
Finally, at Paris Saint-Germain, while stars like Vitinha or Desire Doue might contend, the undeniable brilliance of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia shines brightest. “Kvaradona,” as he`s affectionately known, consistently proves his ability to make significant contributions to winning teams. Should Dembele`s injuries persist, Kvaratskhelia`s leadership in attack will be paramount. Despite a relatively limited minute count in Ligue 1 so far, this is a player whose brilliance feels almost guaranteed. The perennial question of consistency due to injury also hovers over last season`s winner, Ousmane Dembele. His explosive start to the 2025-26 campaign was unfortunately curtailed by a familiar hamstring issue, reminding us that for all his talent, sustained availability is the ultimate currency.
The Relentless Pursuit
The early whispers of the 2026 Ballon d`Or race are more than just idle speculation; they are the opening act of a season-long drama. From the explosive starts of the young titans to the enduring quests of seasoned veterans and the dazzling performances of rising stars, every pass, every goal, every moment of magic weaves into the intricate tapestry of this prestigious award. The World Cup will undoubtedly serve as a pivotal chapter, capable of elevating some to legendary status and leaving others to wonder what might have been. As the season unfolds, the debate of who should win versus who will win will rage on, a beautiful and complex dance for the ultimate individual accolade in football. The chase is on, and it`s exhilarating.
Dominic Ashworth