The PGA Championship, the second major of the 2025 season, is set to begin on Thursday at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. Key questions heading into the tournament include whether Rory McIlroy can secure his second consecutive major title, if Scottie Scheffler will claim another major championship, and what impact Bryson DeChambeau and other LIV Golf players might have.
This week`s PGA Championship offers several compelling storylines, ranging from the top contenders and potential dark horses to the performance of LIV Golf participants and the challenge posed by the course itself.
The Big Question: Scottie Scheffler (World No. 1) vs. Rory McIlroy (Masters Champion)?
Mark Schlabach: While Scottie Scheffler is the slight betting favorite and recently secured his first win of 2025, Rory McIlroy could currently be considered the world`s best golfer. McIlroy has already claimed three significant victories this season (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Players Championship, Masters), notably completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta. His exceptional recent form, combined with a dominant history at Quail Hollow (four wins, one runner-up), positions him as the player to watch. In contrast, Scheffler lacks stroke-play experience at Quail Hollow; his only appearance was a forgettable 0-3-1 performance during the 2022 Presidents Cup.
Paolo Uggetti: Paolo Uggetti concurs, stating McIlroy`s superior form makes him the favorite. He notes the rapid shifts at the top of the sport; despite Scheffler`s consistent play, his single win this season contrasts with last year`s dominant run, allowing McIlroy to reclaim the perception of being the world`s best. Uggetti anticipates that come Sunday, both players might be in contention, potentially vying directly against each other for the major title.
Who Else Could Contend Apart from Scheffler and McIlroy?
Mark Schlabach: Schlabach highlights Justin Thomas, who is in peak form and won the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Thomas recently ended a near three-year winless streak by winning the RBC Heritage. He also had runner-up finishes at the Valspar Championship and the recent Truist Championship. Thomas has a strong track record at Quail Hollow, consistently finishing in the top 26. His statistics are impressive: fifth in strokes gained: tee to green and approach, and 20th in putting.
Paolo Uggetti: Uggetti points to Bryson DeChambeau, arguing that the course`s length, thick rough, and expected rain will favor long hitters, making Quail Hollow ideal for “bombers.” DeChambeau excels in driving distance, gaining over two strokes with his driver according to Data Golf, significantly ahead of his peers. Furthermore, DeChambeau has improved his overall game, evidenced by five top-10 finishes in his last nine majors. If he performs as he did when finishing runner-up at Valhalla last year, Uggetti believes he will be a strong contender.
Expectations for Defending Champion Xander Schauffele?
Mark Schlabach: Schlabach observes that Xander Schauffele`s game is improving after a two-month absence due to a rib injury. He has recently posted four consecutive solid finishes, including T8 at the Masters and T11 at the Truist Championship. While his approach play is strong (7th in strokes gained), other areas like off the tee (157th), around the green (135th), and putting (140th) lag, likely due to limited play. Despite current stats, Schauffele has a strong major record (two wins in last four, seven top 10s in last nine) and was runner-up in his last two starts at Quail Hollow, suggesting he could still perform well.
Paolo Uggetti: Uggetti describes Schauffele as currently “the sport`s mystery man.” He highlights Schauffele`s high baseline performance level, which allows him to achieve top-20 finishes (worst in the last four starts is T18) even without being in peak midseason form. Uggetti admits uncertainty about Schauffele`s prospects this week but finds it significant that the defending champion and two-time major winner is relatively under the radar.
Which LIV Golfers Should We Watch?
Mark Schlabach: Schlabach reiterates that Bryson DeChambeau is a key LIV player to watch due to the importance of driving distance at Quail Hollow. DeChambeau was runner-up at the previous PGA Championship (Valhalla) and contended at the recent Masters before finishing T5. Schlabach notes DeChambeau`s unmatched length off the tee and suggests he could win if his iron play improves from Augusta. He also mentions Patrick Reed, who finished solo third at the Masters and has a good history at Quail Hollow.
Paolo Uggetti: Uggetti focuses on Joaquín Niemann, highlighting the discrepancy between his numerous wins on the LIV Tour and his struggle to finish in the top 10 at majors when competing against the world`s elite. Despite possessing a game capable of winning majors and being ranked in the world`s top 10 by Data Golf, Niemann hasn`t translated this success to the biggest events. Uggetti sees this week as another opportunity for Niemann to overcome this pattern.
Any Under-the-Radar Players to Keep an Eye On?
Mark Schlabach: Schlabach mentions Keith Mitchell, a former University of Georgia player, who has shown recent improvement with five consecutive top-25 finishes, including T2 and T7. Mitchell`s strengths include driving distance (11th on tour) and strokes gained: tee to green (21st), plus he has two career top-10s at Quail Hollow. He also suggests Canada`s Taylor Pendrith, another long hitter, who had three top-10s earlier this season. Although his short game and putting have been inconsistent, a hot putter could make him a contender.
Paolo Uggetti: Uggetti offers a few names: the Højgaard twins, Nicolai and Rasmus, noting their length suits the course. He also suggests young players Michael Thorbjornsen (two top-5s this season) and Akshay Bhatia. Uggetti believes Bhatia, based on his Players Championship performance, has the potential to win a major, and Quail Hollow might be a suitable venue for his breakthrough.
Analyzing the Course: How Will Quail Hollow Play?
Mark Schlabach: Schlabach predicts Quail Hollow will play exceptionally long (7,626 yards, among the longest for a PGA Championship, and the longest for a par-71). Recent and forecast rain will soften conditions, reducing fairway roll and emphasizing driving distance and long iron approaches. Players will also need a strong short game due to anticipated missed greens; in the 2017 PGA, eight greens were hit less than 50% of the time. Key challenges include navigating challenging par 3s (three over 200 yards), capitalizing on par 5s, and surviving the difficult three-hole closing stretch, the `Green Mile,` which yielded more double-bogeys or worse than birdies in 2017.
Jasper Hawthorne